The offseason has been a hectic one for both the Green Bay Packers and the New Orleans Saints.
For Green Bay, they did not know whether or not their long-time quarterback would return. For New Orleans, their long-time quarterback retired, but the decision of which current passer will take the majority of the snaps still seems up in air.
On top of that, Saints star wide receiver Michael Thomas has been feuding with the team, and a late surgery will keep him out of the matchup.
With plenty of interesting matchups in this Packers vs Saints game, let’s break it all down and give our official prediction and betting tips for this NFL Week 1 matchup in the NFL pick of the day series.
Packers vs Saints Best Bet: Packers -3.5 (-105) at BetMGM
For in-depth analysis on this NFL bet of the day and others, continue reading.
Packers vs Saints Prediction
The Packers are largely running it back with the same team this season, with a few exceptions. Still, the main core is intact, which cannot be said on the other sideline — something that is reflected in the NFL gameday odds.
The Saints entered the offseason significantly over the salary cap, and they had to make many tough decisions to make the money work. It led to a loss of a lot of talent, and the late surgery to Thomas only makes matters worse on the offensive side of the ball.
Due to the lack of receiving options, it would make sense to see a Taysom Hill-heavy approach for the Saints, running the ball often. However, this is not expected to happen, with the team committing to Jameis Winston to be the starter.
With a lack of weapons, Winston could be passing into tight windows. Turnover-prone in the past, extra possessions for Aaron Rodgers is a death sentence.
Betting Pick: Packers 27, Saints 21
Sportsbook Play of the Day
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Packers WR Davante Adams could be in for a productive outing in Week 1.
Packers vs Saints Best Bets
Best Bet: Packers -3.5 (-110) at BetMGM
It was a tough offseason for the Saints. Their franchise quarterback and leader retired. The Saints were also forced to cut players to get under the salary cap, causing them to be thin at many positions. While they have committed to Jameis Winston to be their starter at quarterback, he doesn’t have much healthy talent to pass to. The wide receivers are inexperienced, to say the least, and it should lead to a lot of tight coverage, forcing Winston to be precise to have success.
For the Packers, the MVP is back and everyone else enjoyed another offseason to get comfortable in this Matt LaFleur offense. The personnel on this team is largely the same, and the early season hiccups should affect them much less than teams with turnover, like the Saints.
The clinching factor is the Packers’ top-ranked red zone offense facing off against the Saints’ 29th-ranked red zone defense from a season ago. It was nearly impossible to stop Rodgers anyway, so a poor team attempting to stop him won’t be pretty. The Saints are also 2-5 straight up in their last seven Week 1 matchups.
Feel comfortable leaning on the Packers here.
Best Bet: Under 49.5 (-110) at BetMGM
While the Packers’ offense shouldn’t have much issue driving the field on the Saints, the opposite may not be true. With no established receivers, it would make sense for the Saints to take a run-heavy approach.
Assuming this is the case, New Orleans will attempt to control the clock, lead long drives and limit the amount of possessions Rodgers gets. This leads to less scoring opportunities overall in the game, pointing to the under hitting.
Packers vs Saints Same Game Parlay Picks
Alvin Kamara 5+ Receptions
The Saints let Emmanuel Sanders and Jared Cook walk while Michael Thomas waited late to get surgery. Then, they recently released running back Latavius Murray. In other words, this is about to be a heavy Alvin Kamara game, much like it was last season against the Packers.
In that game, he totaled 13 receptions for 139 yards and two touchdowns. The Saints need the offense to run through him both on the ground and through the air. He has averaged over 5.4 receptions per game for his career, and he could double that on Sunday.
Alvin Kamara 45+ Receiving Yards
Kamara averaged 9.1 yards per reception last season. So, if we think he is going to get over five receptions, it’s natural to project him for over 45 receiving yards. He had 10 games last season where he played at least 65% of the offensive snaps. Kamara totaled over 45 receiving yards in seven of these games. Against the presumed blitz-heavy Packers defense, Kamara should see plenty of drop-off passes.
Aaron Jones 25+ Receiving Yards
With Jamaal Williams walking in the offseason, the Packers lose their best running back on passing downs. This should lead to more passing down snaps for Aaron Jones, who is a much better receiver than pass protector. The Saints allowed 3.8 yards per rush last season, which is tied for the best in the NFL. With the Packers having two rookies starting on the offensive line, the running game could struggle, so it makes sense Jones is a bit more active in the receiving game.
Davante Adams Anytime Touchdown
Peanut butter and jelly. Spaghetti and meatballs. Davante Adams and scoring touchdowns. Adams scored 18 touchdowns in 14 games last season. With him currently playing for a new contract, expect his goal to be at least 20 touchdowns this season. He’ll get at least one in Week 1.
