NFL Prop Bets Week 16

Posted: Dec 22, 2022Last updated: Dec 25, 2022

Last week, I had a pair of player props cash after a pair of maximum sweat sessions. I recommended Dak Prescott to go over 255.5 yards and he finished with 256, and Mike Williams finished with 67 receiving yards when I recommended him for 65.5.

In NFL Week 16, the slate presents some potential weather challenges, but not enough for me to back off some of my favorite offensive-centered picks.

Scott Engel 2022 NFL props betting: 74-114 (-57 units)

Before reading the rest of Scott’s football prop bets, toggle with the widget below for our full list of NFL Week 16 player props:

NFL Player Props Week 16

NFL Week 16 odds used for prop bets are from DraftKings Sportsbook (unless otherwise noted) and are current as of Wednesday, Dec. 21.

Josh Allen: Over 48.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Bears

WAGER: 2 Units

This wager has a strong shot of paying off, as Allen should run often in frigid conditions at Chicago. He is used to playing in such environments, as evidenced by his 6.8 yards per rushing attempt in December, which is his highest average for any month.

The Bears rank 25th in rushing yards allowed to QBs. Allen rushed for 45 yards last week vs Miami.

Deshaun Watson: Under 154.5 Passing Yards (-120) vs Saints

WAGER: 2 Units

In two of his three starts for the Browns this season, Watson has failed to pass for 165 yards. He gets a tough matchup in bad weather this week, so this wager is an ideal play on the Under.

New Orleans ranks fifth in passing yards allowed to opposing QBs. Major wind issues and low temperatures will severely limit the passing numbers of Watson and Andy Dalton (at -115 for Under 149.5 yards).

Isaiah Hodgins: Over 34.5 Receiving Yards (-120) at Vikings

WAGER: 2 Units

The Giants are going to have to throw the ball frequently enough to keep pace with the Minnesota offense. Hodgins has gotten past this projected yardage total in each of his past three games, and he has been targeted six times in two of those games.

The Vikings have the worst pass defense in the NFL and have allowed the second-most receiving yards to WRs.

  • Check out the latest NFL Week 16 Odds for more on the upcoming slate of games.

K.J. Osborn: Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (-115) vs Giants

WAGER: 1.5 Units

Osborn is coming off a career game, with 10 receptions for 157 yards and a TD. He should sustain enough momentum from that performance to confidently recommend this Week 16 NFL bet.

Even though Osborn has been inconsistent and it will be a big uphill battle to approach last week’s totals, Kirk Cousins can certainly go back to him often enough after they clicked so well last week. The Giants rank 28th in receiving yards allowed to WRs over the past four weeks.

DK Metcalf, Travis Kelce: 1+TD Each (+225), Seahawks at Chiefs

WAGER: 1 Unit

I am attempting to nail my third DraftKings weekly special in four weeks. Tyler Lockett (hand surgery) is out this week and Metcalf, who has caught TD passes in two of his past three games, will be tasked with a more significant playmaking load as Seattle tries to stay in the NFC playoff race.

The Chiefs have allowed an NFL-high 19 receiving TDs to WRs. Low temperatures will be a factor, but the game total is still holding at 49 and the passing games will still get the job done at least adequately enough.

Seattle has allowed eight TD receptions to TEs, which ranks 28th in the league.

Dallas Goedert: Anytime TD Scorer (+265) at Cowboys

WAGER: 1 Unit

Goedert is expected to return from a shoulder injury this week, and Gardner Minshew is already comfortable working with the Eagles’ tight end. Last year, on Dec. 5, Minshew started against the Jets, and he passed for two TDs, both to Goedert.

Dallas has allowed eight passing TDs over the past four weeks, second-most in the NFL.

NFL Prop Bets Week 16

Bills vs Bears: BUF Over 24.5 Points (-105) at DraftKings Sportsbook

WAGER: 2 Units

After we saw Buffalo score 30 points in significantly adverse conditions vs. Miami last week, I am not letting la daunting weather forecast in Chicago deter me from making this a prime play.

The Bills average 27.5 points per game, and even in a challenging environment, they will still get past the projected total.

Lions vs Panthers: DET Over 23.5 Points (+100) at DraftKings Sportsbook

WAGER: 2 Units

Detroit had sailed past this projected total in five consecutive games before it scored 20 against the Jets last week. The Lions had scored 31 points in each of their two previous true road games.

Carolina has allowed 23-plus points in each of its past two games. Last week, the Panthers allowed 24 points to the Steelers, who average 17.9 points per game.

The Bears have allowed 25-plus points in every game during their seven-game losing streak and allow 25.6 points per game this season, which ranks 22nd in the NFL.

Seahawks vs Chiefs: Over 5.5 Total TDs (-130) at DraftKings Sportsbook

WAGER: 1.5 Units

The weather reports indicate that there will be low temperatures, but these two teams will still find ways to score three TDs each. Kansas City averages an NFL-high 29.6 points per game, and Seattle averages 25.4, which ranks seventh in the league.

The Chiefs may take additional aim at the NFC’s lowest-ranked run defense, but they will still do their part with three-plus TDs in this game. Seattle can at least pad its offensive production in catch-up mode.

I am not expecting 35-plus points from each team, but I am expecting to hit the Over on the projected TD total.

Giants vs Vikings: NYG 21-30 Points Band (+150) at DraftKings Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

Minnesota allows 24,9 points per game, which ranks 28th in the NFL. The Vikings have allowed 70 points in their last two games, but the Giants do lack the firepower to make them a decent bet to get past the 30-point mark.

New York has scored exactly 20 points in three of their last four games and 22 in another. In a matchup with the potent Vikings offense, getting past 21 points will be a necessity and a natural product of the game script.

Raiders vs Steelers: Over 19.5 1H Points (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

The weather is expected to be cold, but the wind should not affect any passing conditions in a major way. Both teams want to keep their playoff hopes alive, so there should be an adequate amount of points put on the board.

I am targeting the defenses here, as both teams rank in the 20s in first-half points allowed. Las Vegas allows 11.9 first-half points per game, and Pittsburgh allows 12.3.

We just need a 10-10 tie at halftime, for instance, to cash in on this wager.


Scott Engel

Scott Engel is a Senior Sports Writer at The Game Day. Previously he was at and The Athletic. His work is also featured at RotoBaller and on Scott is a host on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. He is an inaugural member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association's Hall of Fame. Scott is a four-time FSWA award winner and a 13-time finalist. He was an Associate Editor and featured writer at and his career began at CBS SportsLine, where he was a Senior Writer and Managing Editor. Scott was the Managing Director at RotoExperts.

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