I broke even at 3-3 in my game props last week. The Bengals scoring exactly 20 points to land within the 11-20 total points band was a fun sweat.
More respectable results have been rolling in lately as we look to NFL Week 13. I feature some fun matchups (Chiefs vs Bengals) and less compelling clashes (Steelers vs Falcons) in this week’s rundown.
Scott Engel 2022 NFL props betting: 58-94 (-51.5 units)
Before reading Scott’s picks, toggle the widget below for our full list of NFL Week 13 player props:
NFL Player Props Week 13
NFL Week 13 odds used for prop bets are from DraftKings Sportsbook (unless otherwise noted) and are current as of Wednesday, Nov. 30.
Olamide Zaccheaus: Over 29.5 Receiving Yards (-110) vs Steelers
WAGER: 2 Units
It would not be surprising to see Zaccheaus get past this total on one or two receptions, as he had a season-high 45-yard catch last week and he had a 28-yard catch on Nov. 10. He is coming off his best game of the season (five receptions, 91 yards) and the Steelers rank 28th in receiving yards allowed to WRs.
Kyle Pitts is out for the season with a knee injury. Zaccheaus, who averages 15.5 yards per reception, is the clear No. 2 WR for the Falcons, next to a struggling Drake London, who commands more defensive attention.
Jared Goff: Over 1.5 TD Passes (+100) vs Jaguars
WAGER: 2 Units
The total on this potential shootout is 51 points, so Goff is in a great spot to take us to the pay window on this top Week 13 NFL bet.
It is always recommended to check on Goff props when he plays at home, as he has notched 15 of his 17 TD passes for the season in six games at Ford Field. He has finished with 2-plus TDs in five games in front of the Lions’ faithful in 2022.
- Check out the latest NFL Week 13 Odds for more on the upcoming slate of games.
A.J. Brown: Anytime TD Scorer (+120) vs Titans
WAGER: 1.5 Units
There is not a more apparent “revenge game” script this week than Brown facing the team that traded him away rather than paying him what he wanted.
The Eagles’ new star wideout is going to relish the opportunity to burn his former team, and the matchup looks ideal. Tennessee has allowed 14 TD receptions to WRs, the second-most in the league.
Some of the more interesting daring plays involving Brown are first TD scorer (+700) and for 2-plus TD receptions (+750).
Garrett Wilson: Anytime TD Scorer (+165) at Vikings
WAGER: 1.5 Units
Mike White has instantly re-energized the Jets’ offense, and he has boosted Wilson’s outlook again. The rookie WR caught two TD passes last week against Chicago.
New York’s starting QB will continue to perform well against the league’s worst pass defense, and he should find Wilson for another scoring pass in Week 13.
Deshaun Watson: Under 241.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Texans
WAGER: 1 Unit
I am tempering expectations for Watson in his Cleveland debut. He has missed 11 games and did not look good in his one brief preseason appearance.
He is playing for a new team for the first time against his former team, which will be fired up to contain him despite their poor record.
The Browns don’t need Watson to carry a heavy offensive load when they can lean on Nick Chubb to lead the way against the NFL’s worst rushing defense.
A.J. Dillon 1+ Rush TD, Christian Watson 1+ Receiving TD: (+550) at Bears
WAGER: 1 Unit
This is a weekly special featuring the Packers that has a legitimate shot at hitting the mark. Dillon rushed for a TD for the first time since the season opener last week, and the Bears have allowed an NFC-high 13 rushing TDs to RBs.
The trends are pointing in the right direction when looking at Watson vs the Chicago pass defense. All of Watson’s six TD receptions have come in the last three games, and the Bears have allowed six TD catches to WRs in the last four weeks, tied for second-most in the NFL.
NFL Prop Bets Week 13
Seahawks vs Rams: SEA Over 24.5 Total Points (+100) at DraftKings Sportsbook
WAGER: 2 Units
Scoring enough points overall hasn’t been the issue for the Seahawks lately, as they have soared past the projected total in four of their last five games. Geno Smith is tied for the NFL lead with six games of two-plus TD passes and Kenneth Walker III is tied for fourth in the league with nine rushing TDs.
The Rams have allowed 26-plus points in four of their last five games. The Los Angeles defense will spend too much time on the field and Aaron Donald is out with a high ankle sprain.
Jaguars vs Lions: JAC Over 26.5 Total Points (-105) at DraftKings Sportsbook
WAGER: 1.5 Units
Jacksonville has surpassed this projected number in its last two wins. Trevor Lawrence is coming off his best game of the season with three TD passes, and the Jaguars have significant momentum after a thrilling win over Baltimore.
The Lions allow a league-high 28.2 points per game. Detroit has allowed 28-plus points in two of its past three games.
Browns vs Texans: HOU -6 Alternate Spread (+110) at DraftKings Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Houston has lost three of its last four games by 12-plus points, but those matchups were against the Eagles, Commanders, and Dolphins - three of the hottest teams in the league.
The Texans will stick close enough in an emotional matchup vs Deshaun Watson on his old turf. Watson is playing for a new team after missing 11 games and not looking sharp in the preseason, so I am not expecting him to display his prime form.
Chiefs vs Bengals: KC 21-30 Total Points Band (+140) at DraftKings Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Kansas City has scored within this point range in each of its past three games and came within one point of the span in the game prior to the last three. The Bengals allowed 21-plus points in the two games prior to last week, when they faced a much less potent Titans offense.
Cincinnati has allowed more than 30 points just once this season. Kansas City has the league’s highest-scoring offense and this matchup will feature some offensive fireworks.
Expecting the Chiefs to get into the 31-40 point band may be a bit much.
Saints vs Buccaneers: Under 19.5 First Half Points (+105) at DraftKings Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
The Saints and Buccaneers are two of the lowest-scoring first-half teams in the league. The Saints average 6.3 points per game in the first half of road games and 9 overall while coming off a shutout loss at San Francisco.
Tampa Bay averages 8.5 first-half points per game and it has scored 16 first-half points in its last two true home games.
Steelers vs Falcons: Over 20.5 First Half Points (-105) at DraftKings Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
A Marcus Mariota vs Kenny Pickett matchup doesn’t point to an offensive explosion, but the Atlanta defense ranks 28th in the league, and Pittsburgh’s defense ranks 25th.
Both teams should be able to generate enough points to push the total past the projected number. The Falcons are averaging 11.5 first-half points per game, and the Steelers are averaging 10.8, while Pickett has started to show signs of improvement.
