Both the Arizona Cardinals and Carolina Panthers enter this matchup 1-2.
Arizona picked up a miraculous overtime victory against Las Vegas, but the offense stalled in losses to the Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City Chiefs. Kliff Kingsbury is on the hot seat.
Carolina needed the victory against New Orleans to avoid a disastrous 0-3 start. The defense has looked good, but Baker Mayfield has not.
So, who has the edge in this battle? And where does the value lie?
Read on for our Arizona vs Carolina predictions, betting tips, and best bets.
Cardinals vs Panthers Odds
This line is fishy.
The money is pouring in on Arizona but the line has moved from Carolina -1.5 to Carolina -2.0 at some books. We characterize that as Reverse Line Movement, and it’s often a profitable bet signal.
The total opened around 46 but the Under has taken the sharp money. The number is down to 42 at some books.
Cardinals vs Panthers Implied Totals
Panthers 22.25, Cardinals 20.25
Vegas is expecting a low-scoring, tight matchup. Carolina has a solid defense with a poor offense while the Cardinals’ offense has looked iffy in Weeks 1 and 2.
Cardinals vs Panthers Pick of the Day
Read more on this Cardinals vs Panthers bet below.
Cardinals vs Panthers Prediction
Cardinals 20, Panthers 17
Carolina is coming off a great win against a good New Orleans team. The Panthers are building momentum on defense and Mayfield is starting to perform well.
Not so fast.
Take away a 75-yard pass to Robby Anderson in Week 1 and a 67-yard pass to Laviska Shenault in Week 3 and Mayfield is 40-for-79 for 408 yards (5.2 yards per attempt) and a 1:1 TD-to-INT ratio. He put up a putrid -.17 EPA per play against the Saints, going 12-for-25 for 170 yards.
Carolina’s defense looked good, but the Panthers also forced three turnovers while committing none. We should see some negative turnover regression moving forward.
Arizona has been atrocious on defense. The Cardinals lead only Seattle in EPA per play allowed through two weeks.
But, despite how bad the offense has looked, Arizona ranks around league-average in EPA per play and Success Rate. Plus, Kyler Murray can make lighting strike with his offensive playmaking ability.
This is an overreaction line, as Carolina is only favored because of the win last week. Plus, Matt Rhule is 1-25 SU as a head coach when his opponent scores 17 or more points.
Arizona should score that given the regression coming for the Panthers’ defense. I don’t trust a struggling Mayfield or the Carolina offense to score enough to break that trend.
Cardinals vs Panthers Bet Tips
Consider these Cardinals vs Panthers betting trends before making your official wager on this matchup.
- Arizona is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games in October.
- Carolina is 1-5 ATS in its last six games in October.
- The Under is 6-1 in Arizona’s last seven games following a SU loss.
Cardinals vs Panthers Best Bets
Cardinals +2 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
This is the spot to bet on Kingsbury’s Cardinals and fade Rhule’s Panthers.
Arizona is 19-9-2 ATS as an underdog underneath Kingsbury and 14-3-2 ATS as a road underdog. Kingsbury is also a perfect 9-0 ATS as a road underdog in September and October.
Meanwhile, Carolina is 3-10 ATS as a favorite underneath Rhule. Including his time in Cleveland, Mayfield is 11-22-1 ATS as the favored starting quarterback.
Arizona is the easy bet here.
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Under 42.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
I’m trusting in the sharp money for this total.
Carolina should struggle offensively despite how bad Arizona’s defense looks on paper. Meanwhile, we can trust the above-average Carolina defense to avoid getting shelled by Arizona’s league-average offense.
I’d keep this play smaller than the side.
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