NFL Week 14 Upset Predictions & Picks | Biggest Upsets for Week 14

Week 14 of the NFL season is upon us. Now that we are well into December, we have a much better idea of which teams are contenders and which are pretenders.

Now that we have a solid sample size of games to judge teams on, team-adjusted stats like DVOA have a ton of value. We also have to be aware of how injuries have affected teams to this point.

As always, context is key.

With that in mind, let’s dive into some NFL Week 14 upset predictions and best bets. Please note that all NFL gameday odds and lines are current as of 6:00 p.m. ET on Thursday, December 9.

NFL Week 14 Upset Predictions

Buffalo Bills @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

After playing four of their last five games on the road, the red-hot Tampa Bay Buccaneers will finally return home to face a Buffalo Bills team that just got embarrassed at home by Bill Belichick. They knew a run play was coming every single time but just could not stop it.

Nevertheless, we can throw last week’s garbage Bills outing away due to the volatile win conditions and focus on Josh Allen‘s year as a whole, which has displayed that his blossoming last season was real.


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The Bills don’t have much of a run game outside of Allen, but will likely incorporate more of Matt Breida to add some element of a ground game to the offense. 84% of his 20 rushes this season have gone outside, which is exactly where you want to attack Tampa given their insane interior of Vita Vea and Ndamukong Suh.

The Buccaneers are still without WR3 Antonio Brown but are getting massive production out of Rob Gronkowski whose re-emergence this season was not foreseen anywhere. Tampa runs a balanced attack of WRs, TEs, and Leonard Fournette yet have not faced a defense close to the Bills since Week 8 in their loss to New Orleans. After multiple cushy matchups, they could be caught by surprise.

Upset Prediction: Bills 30, Buccaneers 24

Bills vs Buccaneers Upset Picks

Upset Pick: Bills Moneyline (+150) at Caesars

Wager: 2 Units

The Bills lost to “Tom Brady Jr.” this past week, but take on the real Tom Brady and win a game that many might count them out for despite possessing the No. 1 defense according to DVOA and a healthy team overall.

Tampa will by all means keep this a close game and deserves to be favored, yet they are in a different position than the Bills with the division all but locked up. Buffalo is desperate at 7-5 and will pull out all the stops in what may become a must-win game to keep their division hopes alive.

Back the Bills and make this your NFL bet of the day.

moneyline

+150

Bills To Defeat Buccaneers (NFL Week 14)

BUF @ TB | 12/12, 4:25 PM ET

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Bet $20, Payout $50

Upset Pick: Over 53.5 Total Points (-110) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

Both defenses rank near the top of the NFL and are sturdy against both the ground and air game, but this game will highlight two of the best quarterbacks in the league.

While Allen is no Brady, he is very skilled in his own right and has every weapon in the passing game healthy and at his disposal.

over-under

-110

Over 53.5 Total Points In Bills @ Buccaneers (NFL Week 14)

BUF @ TB | 12/12, 4:25 PM ET

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Bet $20, Payout $38

Buffalo Bills

With a fully healthy receiving corps, the Buffalo Bills will have one thing that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers won’t ahead of their matchup on Sunday. (Image: USA TODAY Sports)


Washington Football Team vs Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys and Washington Football Team square off for the first time this season on Sunday. Both teams are making their playoff push, and their matchups should be what swings the division given that they are just two games apart.

A sweep by Washington would put them in the driver’s seat for the division, but the most likely scenario is that these two teams split their series.

Dallas is sitting at 8-4 and has lost some momentum with just two wins over the past five games, which is uncharacteristic of this emergent powerhouse.

They just took a decent hit with the news of Tony Pollard‘s torn plantar fascia, which comes after their receiving corps just got fully healthy. Amari Cooper is reportedly back without limitations post-COVID, and Michael Gallup has looked great over the last few weeks.

On the opposite end of this matchup, Washington is getting healthier across the board but just lost starting TE Logan Thomas. Luckily, they have some depth there and can manage.

Given that they try to attack through the ground first and foremost, getting RB Antonio Gibson healthy from his midseason shin fracture is a revelation. He hasn’t been a world-beater in terms of efficiency, but the workload of late is tremendous and a threat opposing teams must account for.

It is only made tougher with offseason signee Curtis Samuel back in the mix misdirecting defenses on jet motion.

Speaking of defense, Dallas’ is surprisingly potent with even more upside now that star EDGE DeMarcus Lawrence is back in the mix. The front-four plus Micah Parsons is strong along with parts of their secondary, but there is a weakness to exploit as they struggle to stop the run (No. 19 in DVOA).

Washington’s is looking stronger as well and will not be as much of a pushover as their early-season struggles suggested.

Upset Prediction: Washington 24, Cowboys 23

Washington vs Cowboys Upset Picks

Upset Pick: Washington Moneyline (+170) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

Washington is playing much better despite losing Chase Young and Montez Sweat. While Sweat was set to return this week, he is now on the COVID List and ineligible to play.

Nevertheless, with the recent spike in play from high-priced offseason addition CB William Jackson III and a move of S Landon Collins to the box full-time, they are much more respectable than the first-half on defense.

Pair that with a run game that can take advantage of Dallas’ defensive weakness, and you can win at home.

moneyline

+170

Washington To Defeat Cowboys (NFL Week 14)

DAL @ WAS | 12/12, 1:00 PM ET

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Bet $20, Payout $54

Upset Pick: Under 48 Total Points (-110) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

While the Cowboys are one of the league’s best offenses at full strength, the loss of Tony Pollard puts more pressure on a hobbled Ezekiel Elliot to carry the load, which he has not done over the past month.

Taking this phase of the Cowboys’ attack out of the game while controlling the clock with their No. 23-ranked pace will be enough to hit the Under.

over-under

-110

Under 48 Total Points In Cowboys @ Washington (NFL Week 14)

DAL @ WAS | 12/12, 1:00 PM ET

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Bet $20, Payout $38

Thanks for reading our NFL Week 14 Upset Predictions! For more NFL betting tips, check out our NFL Week 14 Best Bets and NFL Week 14 Prop Bets.

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NFL Betting News

  • Early money slightly leaning towards the over in the 49ers-Rams matchup

    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting good two-way action on the over/under for the NFC Championship Game matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the over of 46 points has attracted 55% of the bets and 60% of the money thus far. Much moreso than the AFC Championship Game, the betting splits on the point spread and total in this game are much more evenly split, so the sportsbook does not have too much liability on either at the moment. From a moneyline perspective, Los Angeles's -170 moneyline odds have attracted 60% of the bets and 70% of the money.

    SF vs. LAR Game Page

  • Early bettors give slight lean to the Rams over the 49ers

    Based on the betting splits at DraftKings Sportsbook, the favored Los Angeles Rams are getting slightly more betting attention in their matchup with the San Francisco 49ers.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, Los Angeles's -3.5 point spread has received 65% of the bets and 61% of the handle thus far. Bettors are clearly torn in this matchup considering the Rams have arguably been playing better football through the first two playoff games, while the 49ers have won six consecutive games against the Rams, including a thrilling Week 18 overtime victory in Los Angeles.

    SF vs. LAR Game Page

  • Early money more than 4/1 on the over in the Bengals-Chiefs matchup

    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting one-sided betting action for Sunday's over/under in the matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the over of 54.5 points has attracted 75% of the bets and 85% of the money thus far. At this point, the sportsbook has big liability to the Chiefs point spread and the over in this matchup, as their most ideal scenario would be a Bengals cover in a low-scoring game at the moment. From a moneyline perspective, Kansas City's -335 moneyline odds have attracted 58% of the bets and 61% of the money.

    CIN vs. KC Game Page

  • Early money 3/1 on the Chiefs over the Bengals

    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting one-sided betting action for Sunday's matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs, as the majority of the action is backing the favored Chiefs.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, Kansas City's -7 point spread has received 61% of the bets and 76% of the handle thus far. Cincinnati is shaping up to be the biggest need of any side or any total this weekend, as the public seems to be enamored with the Chiefs after their thrilling Divisional Round win over Buffalo.

    CIN vs. KC Game Page

  • 49ers-Rams over/under reaches lowest number of the week

    After another line movement, the over/under for the NFC Championship matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams has reached its lowest total of the week.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the 49ers-Rams over/under on Sunday night was posted at 47.5 points. It was quickly bet down to 46.5 in less than 24 hours. However, it has once again moved toward the under, and now currently sits at 46 points. Given that there has not yet been buyback on the over, it is extremely unlikely we see the total get back to anywhere close to the 47.5 points it opened at.

    SF vs. LAR Game Page