In Week 8, all my survivor pools lost with the Cincinnati Bengals falling to the New York Jets. Last week, I recommended taking the Dallas Cowboys over the Denver Broncos, but Denver dominated Dallas and now we’ve lost two in a row. It’s been a crazy season and extremely tough to predict what will happen in a given week.
That said, let’s try to get back on track with a winning pick this week. It should be hard to lose three straight games with the favorite near double digits against the spread, right?
2021 NFL Survivor Pool Grid Week 10
| Road Team | Home Team | Opening Line | Current Line | Prob HmTm W | Prob RdTmW | Prob HmTmCv | Prob RdTmCv |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City | Denver | -3 | -10 | 0.3278 | 0.6722 | 0.5755 | 0.4245 |
| Dallas | Philadelphia | -3.5 | -7 | 0.49 | 0.51 | 0.6325 | 0.3675 |
| Pittsburgh | Baltimore | +6.5 | +4.5 | 0.6272 | 0.3728 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Cincinnati | Cleveland | +1.5 | +3 | 0.4427 | 0.5573 | 0.3989 | 0.6011 |
| Green Bay | Detroit | -11 | -2 | 0.2325 | 0.7675 | 0.3365 | 0.6635 |
| Tennessee | Houston | -10 | -10.5 | 0.251 | 0.749 | 0.5231 | 0.4769 |
| Indianapolis | Jacksonville | -8.5 | -15.5 | 0.1711 | 0.8289 | 0.5373 | 0.4627 |
| Chicago | Minnesota | +6 | +3 | 0.6375 | 0.3625 | 0.538 | 0.462 |
| Washington | N.Y. Giants | -4 | -7 | 0.468 | 0.532 | 0.6191 | 0.3809 |
| Seattle | Arizona | +5 | +6.5 | 0.6522 | 0.3478 | 0.4885 | 0.5115 |
| New Orleans | Atlanta | -3.5 | -4.5 | 0.3717 | 0.6283 | 0.4986 | 0.5014 |
| N.Y. Jets | Buffalo | +17 | +17 | 0.8895 | 0.1105 | 0.5199 | 0.4801 |
| San Francisco | LA Rams | +6.5 | +4 | 0.6136 | 0.3864 | 0.4994 | 0.5006 |
| New England | Miami | -2.5 | -6.5 | 0.3375 | 0.6625 | 0.5112 | 0.4888 |
| Carolina | Tampa Bay | +16.5 | +8 | 0.835 | 0.165 | 0.6174 | 0.3826 |
| LA Chargers | Las Vegas | -2.5 | -3 | 0.4776 | 0.5224 | 0.5455 | 0.4545 |
The above survivor pool grid, created by Todd Beck of “The Prediction Tracker," uses the average of the top computer ratings in the sports betting industry including computer systems like Sagarin, ESPN FPI, Massey Ratings, Stat Fox, and many, many more.
To read this grid properly, the opening line and current line are based on the road team.
Keep in mind that when this article is posted, current lines can change and probability for teams can also change based on breaking news. Lines are current as of Wednesday, November 10, at 10:00 a.m. ET.
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2021 NFL Survivor Pool: Best Picks to Win in Week 10
Baltimore Ravens vs Miami Dolphins
I’m not big on taking road teams in primetime games, but this spot makes the most sense with what we’ve got left. I haven’t taken the Ravens yet this season and believe they’re going to be just fine going up against a Dolphins team that struggled to dominate a depleted Texans team last week.
The secondary for the Dolphins stepped up but the offense was horrendous. Now on a short week, who knows if Tua Tagovailoa will be able to play in this game. If he’s unable to go, Jacoby Brissett will start under center again.
- Read our full Ravens vs Dolphins predictions and best bets.
Brissett’s been underwhelming this year with five touchdowns and four interceptions in five starts. He just isn’t a reliable quarterback.
Regardless of who starts for Miami, going up against Lamar Jackson is a huge mismatch. Exploit it and take Baltimore in survivor pools this week for our NFL bet of the day.
Betting Pick: Ravens -7.5 (-110) at Caesars
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts
Scared money never makes money. The Jaguars stunned the Buffalo Bills last week and will now face the Colts on the road.
Despite Jacksonville’s big win over Buffalo, the Colts are 10.5 point favorites on our NFL gameday odds and are coming off a season-high 45 points against the Jets. Indy has scored at least 30 points in four straight games and will be extremely tough for Urban Meyer‘s mediocre defense to stop
- Read our full Jaguars vs Colts predictions and best bets.
If the Colts score anywhere close to 30 points in this game as well, they’ll win with ease and likely cover the spread against the 2-6 Jaguars. This is the perfect game for Indy to get back to .500 behind Carson Wentz, who’s been outstanding lately.
The Colts are clicking on offense and have come on strong after an 0-3 start. Back them with confidence here.
Betting Pick: Colts -10.5 (-110) at Caesars
The Indianapolis Colts are poised for an easy win against the Jacksonville Jaguars in NFL Week 10 after whipping the New York Jets on Thursday Night Football. (Image: USA TODAY Sports)
2021 NFL Survivor Pools: Sleeper Team To Win
Philadelphia Eagles vs Denver Broncos
The Broncos are 5-4 after winning back-to-back games, including a huge upset over the Cowboys last week. Their other four wins were against bottom-of-the-barrel teams, however, so don’t get too high on them just yet.
Denver’s offensive line has struggled while Philadelphia’s pass rush and tackling have been pretty good this season. The Eagles’ defense should be able to put pressure on Teddy Bridgewater to create third and longs and potentially a couple of turnovers.
- Read our full Eagles vs Broncos predictions and best bets.
Philly also has one of the better offensive lines in football, which has helped them run the ball well. Jalen Hurts is starting to look comfortable in the passing game and we already know what he can do with his legs.
I like the Eagles to pull off the upset here, so stay away from the Broncos if you can help it.
2021 NFL Survivor Pools: Future Team Value Pick to Save
Minnesota Vikings vs Los Angeles Chargers
I’m waiting for the right moment to take the Chargers. I love Justin Herbert and think he’s going to be a star for a long time, but hold off for a better matchup. The Vikings are 3-5 but all of their losses have been by one possession, so they certainly have the potential to upset here.
- Read our full Vikings vs Chargers predictions and best bets.
Dalvin Cook is healthy for Minnesota, while Kirk Cousins has been tremendous this year with a 16:2 TD/INT ratio. This is a dangerous team that has the potential to beat anyone in a given week, making Los Angeles a risky play here.
2021 NFL Survivor Pools: Chalk Pick That Could Lose
Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets
Despite all their uncertainty at quarterback in the wake of Zach Wilson‘s knee injury, the Jets have played two of their best games of the season without him over the last two weeks.
The Bills, on the other hand, suddenly appear mortal after losing two of their last three games, including last week’s game in Jacksonville. Now they’ll have to bounce back on the road against an energized Jets squad.
- Read our full Bills vs Jets predictions and best bets.
Chances are, most survivor pool players have already taken Buffalo, but if you haven’t I’d stay away from them. They seem to be in a bit of a funk right now and divisional games are always unpredictable.
Thanks for reading our Week 10 Survivor Pool Picks! For more NFL betting tips and picks, read our NFL Week 10 Best Bets and NFL Week 10 Parlay Picks.
