The Jacksonville Jaguars are coming off a monstrous upset in Week 9 over the Buffalo Bills. They were able to hold Josh Allen’s offensive unit to just six points in a 9-6 win to get to 2-6 on the year.
The Indianapolis Colts are fresh off a Thursday night victory over the New York Jets in which they scored 45 points. Yes, they did allow 30 to a team that doesn’t even have their starting quarterback, but a lot of those points came in garbage time.
It’s been a tough rookie season for Trevor Lawrence thus far, but the competition always goes up a ton from college to the NFL. Jacksonville also isn’t stocked with the best talent around him, so he’s doing what he can.
Through eight games, Lawrence has 1,821 passing yards with eight touchdowns to nine interceptions. The Jaguars’ 221.4 passing yards per game rate is also bottom 10 in the league, so there’s obvious room for improvement in all areas for Lawrence and company.
The Colts have a great rushing attack, plus a quarterback who hardly turns the ball over. In eight games, Carson Wentz has 17 touchdowns to just three interceptions, along with nearly 2,200 yards through the air.
Let’s dive in to determine which team will come out victorious in our NFL pick of the day series.
Please note that all odds are current as of 12:00 p.m. ET on Friday, November 12.
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Jaguars vs Colts Prediction
The Colts, as said above, are fresh off a 45-30 win over the Jets, and they are absolutely rolling on offense. This was the fourth game in a row that they’ve scored 30+ points, which is a testament to how dangerous they are.
Indianapolis is 3-1 over that span, with the lone loss coming in overtime against the Tennessee Titans.
Running back Jonathan Taylor has been a freak of nature. He has 821 yards and eight touchdowns on 140 carries, plus he has gone over the century mark in three of his last four games. With Jacksonville ranking 12th in the league in rush defense, it will have its hands full for this one.
Meanwhile, the Jaguars have struggled to score, especially the last couple of weeks.
I know they upset the Bills, but they could only put up a whopping seven points against a Seattle defense who’s one of the worst in the league. That lone touchdown didn’t come until the fourth quarter, when the game was all but over.
This is because Jacksonville has struggled to make big plays on offense. As a result, it ranks in the bottom 10 in total yards per game (332.9), bottom three in points per game (16.5), and bottom 10 in splash passing plays of 25+ yards with 12.
The struggling offense has caused Jacksonville’s defense to have to try and step up this season, and they especially did that against Buffalo with Allen getting picked off twice and not throwing for any touchdowns.
We also have to consider that Indianapolis will have more rest coming into this game due to playing last Thursday night. It’s almost like a mini bye week.
Despite Jacksonville’s Week 9 upset win, this looks like a good spot to ride with the Colts, who are likely better than their record. Look for the Colts to win and to cover the spread.
Prediction: Colts 30, Jaguars 14
Jaguars vs Colts Best Bets
Best Bet: Colts -10.5 (-108) at BetRivers
Wager: 1 Unit
The Colts can score a lot, while Jacksonville has one of the worst offenses in football. Before this win against the Bills, Jacksonville got blown out by Seattle, won a close one with Miami, and got badly beaten by the Titans.
The only close loss for the Jags this season was to the Bengals, 24-21. All their other losses have been by 10+ points.
If this game were in Florida, I’d likely be taking the Jags +10.5, but I can’t see them keeping it close with it being in Indianapolis, as reflected in our NFL gameday odds.
Best Bet: Under 47.5 (-108) at BetRivers
Wager: 1.5 units
Here we have a battle of one of the best offenses in football against one of the worst.
The Colts’ defense should be able to contain this limited Jaguars’ offense. This total should be closer to the game Jacksonville played against Seattle a couple of weeks ago when Seattle’s offense produced a lot, while Jacksonville’s did not.
I understand that the Colts’ defense is mainly mediocre across the board, but the Jaguars’ offense hasn’t really shown the ability to put up points against any team.
Roll with the Under here, making it our NFL bet of the day.