November is here, which is the last full month of college football. With a wealth of data from past games, and lots of props, the betting opportunities are endless
Below, check out my five favorite CFB props for Week 10.
CFP Week 10 Prop: Iowa vs Purdue
Note: College football odds are current as of Thursday, Oct. 27, and courtesy of the sportsbooks listed.
Iowa 1st Half +3 (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook
WAGER: 1.5 Units
Both Iowa and Purdue are two of the most vexing Big Ten teams this season. Despite strong coaching and rosters, both teams are marginal bowl teams.
The Hawkeyes are 4-4 and the Boilermakers are 5-3.
Purdue at home is the logical favorite, but Iowa won’t be a cakewalk. That is because Iowa, despite a woeful offense, has a great defense. The Hawkeyes allow only 17.6 points per game.
Purdue, on the other hand, averages 29.4 points per game, which while close to the CFB median, is impressive when you consider their Big Ten schedule.
For game props, the reason why this is noteworthy is that the consensus first-half spread is Purdue -1.5. What’s notable is that BetMGM has Iowa at +3.
Outside of seven, the second most common margin of victory for first halves is three points as 8.4% of college football first halves are decided by three points.
Outside of Heisman odds favorite C.J. Stroud, no quarterback has done well against Iowa this year. With Purdue having a pass-heavy offense, they should have difficulty against Iowa this weekend.
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CFP Week 10 Prop: Michigan State vs Illinois
Illinois To Win By 1-13 Points (+210) at PointsBet
WAGER: 1 Unit
Michigan State’s football program is all over the press for the wrong reason this week. At the end of getting blown out by Michigan last week, several Spartan players assaulted two Michigan players in the tunnel.
The result of the altercation is that several MSU players have been suspended, and Illinois, a conservative offensive team, is a 17-point favorite in what is expected to be a low-scoring game. In fact, as of Thursday, BetRivers has the point total at only 40.5 points for this game.
What does that mean for game props?
Well, the best angles are to bet against Illinois covering a -17 spread as that is an overreaction to the fallout from the fight last week.
Illinois and Michigan State are strong defensive teams, which makes Illinois winning by 14 or more points difficult. That is why I like Illinois to win by between 1-13 rather than winning by the 17 points that they are expected to win by.
CFP Week 10 Prop: Oregon vs Colorado
Oregon 1st Half -16.5 (-120) at BetRivers
WAGER: 2 Units
Anyone who has watched Pac-12 football this year knows two truths. That Colorado is the worst team, and that Oregon is the best.
The Ducks have a 7-1 overall record with their only loss coming against CFB National Championship contender Georgia in the first week. Colorado is 1-7 with their only win coming against California in overtime.
What is notable about the Buffaloes is that most of their losses are ugly. Whether it’s the 42-9 loss to Oregon State, 43-20 loss to Arizona, 49-7 loss to Minnesota, or 45-17 loss to UCLA, Colorado doesn’t have much fight in their losses.
With an average scoring margin of -22.9, only UMass loses games by more points on average than Colorado. Weaker teams like Akron, ULM, Hawaii, Colorado State, and Florida International have been more competitive than Colorado this season.
So why wouldn’t I bet Oregon’s full game spread of -31.5? Because the first-half spread of -16.5 (-120) is even better.
UO could be leading by so much after the first half that they lay their foot off the gas in the second half. Most sportsbooks have the first half spread at -18.5 or -19.5, while BetRivers has it at -16.5 (-120).
Getting those extra three points makes the -16.5 worth it as 7.6% of first halves are decided by 17-19 points. I like Oregon in the first half, and I would bet their spread up to -19.5.
CFP Week 10 Prop: Navy vs Cincinnati
Navy 1st Half +10.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Cincinnati is a better team than Navy, but there are two reasons to like Navy to cover their first-half spread of +10.5. The Midshipmen’s style of play helps them as a large underdog, and 10 points is the fourth-most frequent margin of victory in college football first halves.
Navy has a rushing play percentage of 81.6%, which is the second-highest in the country behind Air Force. Running takes time off the clock, which is why Navy, despite being a mediocre team, is third in the country in average time of possession at 35 minutes and 20 seconds per game.
The Bearcats average only 30.9 points a game, which is only 41st in the country. Even though they have a strong running defense, they should struggle to cover in the first half, and if you can grab Navy at +10 or better, I would recommend betting on them in the first half.
Arizona vs Utah Prop
Arizona Team Total Over 24.5 Points (-113) at Betway Sportsbook
WAGER: 1.5 Units
On Saturday night, there is a team with a 3-5 record averaging 32.4 points per game that is a +17.5 underdog. That team is Arizona, and I like them as not only one of my CFB best bets, but to also go over a modest team total of only 24.5 points.
Utah is a strong team, but recently the Arizona offense has been clicking. Last week, the Wildcats scored 37 points against USC. In the game before, they scored 39 points against Washington.
Their only games scoring fewer than 24.5 points were against Oregon and Mississippi State.
Utah allows 23.7 points per game, which is not that much better than the median CFB team. Arizona has a pass-heavy offense, and Utah has had a difficult time against the pass this season.
At 24.5 points, I like the Over on the team total, but I am going to wait until closer to game time to see if I can get a better number than what is currently offered.
