The opening game of the 2024 Final Four will see 11-seed NC State take on one-seed Purdue in a David vs Goliath showdown on Saturday night.
The Boilermakers opened as nine-point favorites in this matchup, but the Wolfpack have embraced an underdog mentality in their runs through the ACC and NCAA Tournaments.
Let’s break this game down from a prop betting perspective and pick out some of our favorite Purdue vs NC State props.
College basketball odds referenced for these Purdue vs NC State props are current as of Tuesday, April 2, and courtesy of bet365 Sportsbook.
Purdue vs NC State Game Props
Purdue: Under 37.5 1H Points (-130)
bet365 Sportsbook • WAGER: 1.3 units
The Boilermakers averaged 41.1 first-half points per game this season, the sixth-most in the country.
However, this isn’t just any other game.
Purdue is playing in its first Final Four since 1980 and is a significant favorite to advance to the National Championship Game.
That circumstance brings about pressure, especially against an NC State team that is playing with house money.
The Wolfpack have also stepped up their game defensively in March, surrendering 73 points or fewer in all four of their NCAA Tournament games and holding each of those teams below 34 points in the opening 20 minutes.
Factoring that in with the potential for early-game jitters and the difficulty of shooting in a football stadium, I’m taking a first-half Under on Purdue.
136-155 Total Points (-145)
bet365 Sportsbook • WAGER: 1.45 units
The Over/Under for this matchup is set at 146 total points, so this points band prop bet gives us about 10 points of leeway in either direction in exchange for some extra juice.
I’m willing to make that deal.
Three of NC State’s four tournament games finished in this range — ending on 147, 152, and 140 — with the lone exception being its 67-58 victory over a Marquette team that shot 33.3% from the field and 12.9% from three on that particular evening.
- See more of our March Madness Final Four Prop Bets.
After engaging in blowouts over the opening weekend, Purdue’s last two games have also finished in this range (148 vs Gonzaga, 138 vs Tennessee).
These teams play at a similar, middling pace, so barring a ton of free-throw attempts or both teams shooting well below or above their heads, we should see this game played in the 140s.
Purdue vs NC State Player Props
Zach Edey: Over 25.5 Points (-120)
bet365 Sportsbook • WAGER: 1.2 units
At 7-foot-4, Zach Edey is a matchup problem for basically everyone in college basketball.
NC State will be no different.
The Wolfpack can throw 6-foot-9, 275-pound DJ Burns Jr. at him, though I’m not sure that’s the best idea given his importance to the NC State offense, and both Ben Middlebrooks and Mohamed Diarra stand at 6-foot-10.
Regardless of who is defending Edey, he’s going to have a six-inch height advantage and will get anything he wants at the rim. He’ll also likely draw plenty of fouls, as he did in the win over Tennessee (16).
The reigning National Player of the Year has exceeded this total in three of four tournament games. His lone miss came in Purdue’s blowout win over Utah State because he played just 27 minutes.
Edey has gone Over this prop in eight of his last 10 games and should continue to wreak havoc on opposing defenses.
Michael O’Connell: 5+ Assists (+145)
bet365 Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit
NC State’s Michael O’Connell has flown relatively under the radar compared to backcourt mate DJ Horne, but the senior guard continues to do all the little things for his team.
O’Connell is an unconventional stat-sheet filler. He rarely racks up a lot of points but finds ways to make an impact with timely threes, steals, rebounds, and assists.
Those contributions have kept the Stanford transfer on the court a lot during the tournament — he has averaged 38.8 minutes per game — and he has made an impact on the offensive end, averaging 5.5 assists per game.
O’Connell has hit this prop in three of NC State’s four games, and at plus-money odds, his assists prop is my best college basketball bet today.
Purdue vs NC State Prop Odds
Toggle with the widget below to find more March Madness prop bets and the latest college basketball prop odds.
