Josh Allen Wild Card Props | Prop Bets For Bills vs Patriots
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen experienced some regression in his fourth NFL season, during which his completion percentage dropped from a career-best 69.2 percent in 2020 to 63.3 percent this campaign.
Allen still managed to put up gaudy numbers, accounting for over 4,400 passing yards and 42 total touchdowns (six rushing), but also threw a career-most 15 interceptions.
Despite some inefficiencies, Allen led the Bills to their second straight AFC East title and now faces the challenge of the division rival New England Patriots in the Wild Card Round.
Let’s dig in to my favorite Josh Allen prop bets for Saturday night’s showdown in Buffalo.
Josh Allen Wild Card Prop Bets
Josh Allen Under 243.5 Passing Yards (-115) at BetRivers
Wager: 1 Unit
Allen has only gone over this number twice in seven career starts against the Patriots, most recently doing so in Buffalo’s Week 16 win in New England.
Oddly enough, in three career home games against the Patriots, Allen has only averaged 150.6 passing yards per game and never come close to exceeding 200.
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Sure, one of those games was earlier this year when both teams were met by temperatures in the low 30s and 25-35 mph wind that gusted up to 55 mph at times, but this is still a January outdoors game in Buffalo.
While the wind isn’t supposed to be as much of a factor on Saturday, throwing the ball all over the yard won’t be that easy, especially against a Patriots defense that finished the regular season third in DVOA against the pass.
Josh Allen Over 45.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 1.5 Units
What makes Allen truly dangerous is his ability as a dual threat.
He ran for 50+ yards seven times this season, including 64 yards in the most recent victory over the Patriots, and was within seven yards of this number in four other contests.
Allen also has a history of using his legs even more in the postseason, running for totals of 92, 88, and 54 yards in three of his four career playoff starts.
Buffalo’s rushing attack doesn’t offer a ton from the running back position, so look for Allen to improvise and call his own number often on Saturday.
Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+160) at BetRivers
Wager: 1 Unit
I’m very much buying into the Bills leaning on Allen in the run game with the season on the line.
Buffalo won’t be afraid to draw up some designed runs in the red zone for their 6’5, 240-pound quarterback, who is willing to throw his body around and poses a challenge to any defender trying to bring him down.
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I think the value here is worth a shot in single-digit temperatures and I wouldn’t hate a sprinkle on 2+ touchdowns at +1100, either.
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