Congratulations if you’re still in your Survivor Pool. It’s Week 16 and you’ve picked 15 consecutive winners straight up. With so many ridiculous upsets this year, that’s a huge accomplishment.
However, you still have three more weeks to go. It’s no time to celebrate.
I’ve been out of my pool for quite a while now, but I’m here to help those who are still in theirs. I’m not worried about teams I’ve already selected at this point. I’m giving you guys the best picks possible and hoping you have one or two of these teams I’ve selected left for your pool.
All NFL Week 16 odds and lines are current as of 10:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday, December 22.
2021 NFL Survivor Pool Grid Week 16
| Road Team | Home Team | Opening Line | Current Line | Prob HmTm W | Prob RdTmW | Prob HmTmCv | Prob RdTmCv |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City | Denver | -3 | -10 | 0.3278 | 0.6722 | 0.5755 | 0.4245 |
| Dallas | Philadelphia | -3.5 | -7 | 0.49 | 0.51 | 0.6325 | 0.3675 |
| Pittsburgh | Baltimore | +6.5 | +4.5 | 0.6272 | 0.3728 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Cincinnati | Cleveland | +1.5 | +3 | 0.4427 | 0.5573 | 0.3989 | 0.6011 |
| Green Bay | Detroit | -11 | -2 | 0.2325 | 0.7675 | 0.3365 | 0.6635 |
| Tennessee | Houston | -10 | -10.5 | 0.251 | 0.749 | 0.5231 | 0.4769 |
| Indianapolis | Jacksonville | -8.5 | -15.5 | 0.1711 | 0.8289 | 0.5373 | 0.4627 |
| Chicago | Minnesota | +6 | +3 | 0.6375 | 0.3625 | 0.538 | 0.462 |
| Washington | N.Y. Giants | -4 | -7 | 0.468 | 0.532 | 0.6191 | 0.3809 |
| Seattle | Arizona | +5 | +6.5 | 0.6522 | 0.3478 | 0.4885 | 0.5115 |
| New Orleans | Atlanta | -3.5 | -4.5 | 0.3717 | 0.6283 | 0.4986 | 0.5014 |
| N.Y. Jets | Buffalo | +17 | +17 | 0.8895 | 0.1105 | 0.5199 | 0.4801 |
| San Francisco | LA Rams | +6.5 | +4 | 0.6136 | 0.3864 | 0.4994 | 0.5006 |
| New England | Miami | -2.5 | -6.5 | 0.3375 | 0.6625 | 0.5112 | 0.4888 |
| Carolina | Tampa Bay | +16.5 | +8 | 0.835 | 0.165 | 0.6174 | 0.3826 |
| LA Chargers | Las Vegas | -2.5 | -3 | 0.4776 | 0.5224 | 0.5455 | 0.4545 |
The above survivor pool grid, created by Todd Beck of “The Prediction Tracker," uses the average of the top computer ratings in the sports betting industry including computer systems like Sagarin, ESPN FPI, Massey Ratings, Stat Fox, and many, many more.
To read this grid properly, the opening line and current line are based on the road team.
Keep in mind that when this article is posted, current lines can change and probability for teams can also change based on breaking news.
2021 NFL Survivor Pool: Best Picks to Win in Week 16
Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears
For the most part, if you’re still alive in your pool, there’s a good chance you haven’t selected the Seahawks yet. I certainly haven’t brought up their name in my articles this season.
However, the Seahawks are set to play the Chicago Bears this week, who just continue to lose games. The Bears are struggling to protect Justin Fields and continue to lack development as a program.
Fields has thrown for seven touchdowns and 10 interceptions in 12 games this season. To be honest, he’s the best quarterback out of the draft so far, but he’s just not getting any help from his offensive line and playmakers.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks won two games in a row against the 49ers and Texans before losing on Tuesday night to the Rams. They’re not officially out of the playoffs yet, per our NFL gameday odds, and a win here would help their case.
Betting Pick: Seahawks -6.5 (-110) at Caesars
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Los Angeles Chargers @ Houston Texans
The Los Angeles Chargers are starting to catch fire again. The Chargers are currently 8-6 on the year and lost to the Chiefs in overtime last week, 34-28. It was a tough game to lose, but they proved that they can stick around against any team in the NFL.
Now, the Chargers really need to rally for some wins to make the postseason. A game against the 3-11 Houston Texans should be just what the doctor ordered.
The Chargers are averaging 401 yards per game on offense, while the Texans are averaging just 285.4 yards per game. That’s a big difference, especially knowing the Texans’ defense is also one of the worst in the NFL.
This deep into a survivor pool, I’d be more confident with a home team, but if you’re going to select a road team, the Chargers are the play for our NFL bet of the day.
Betting Pick: Chargers -9.5 (-110) at Caesars
2021 NFL Survivor Pools: Sleeper Team To Win
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles
The Giants already defeated the Eagles earlier this season, holding them to just seven points in the process. I’m not saying the Giants are going to win this game, but I’m also not saying they won’t.
If the Giants start Jake Fromm and he manages the game well and gets some help from the defense, this one could get interesting. If Mike Glennon gets the start, however, I’d back the Eagles.
Be careful if Fromm gets the start.
2021 NFL Survivor Pools: Chalk Pick That Could Lose
Atlanta Falcons vs Detroit Lions
The Detroit Lions just knocked off the Arizona Cardinals, 30-12 last week, at home. The Lions have some serious momentum and seem to have a certain belief within the team that they can do anything.
I’m not a Lions homer, but I do think the Lions will play well as the season approaches its end. The first pick doesn’t really matter this year. There’s no clear first overall pick in this year’s draft.
The Lions have to go build on this win and start a winning streak, and it’s truly possible against a Falcons team that just can’t protect its quarterback anymore.
Thanks for reading our Week 16 Survivor Pool Picks! For more NFL betting tips, read our NFL Week 16 Best Bets and NFL Week 16 Parlays.
