Week 15 features a divisional clash between the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants, who are at opposite ends of the NFC East standings. The 9-4 Cowboys have more or less locked up the division at this point with a three-game lead over Washington and Philadelphia, whereas the Giants are languishing in last place at 4-9.
The previous meeting between these two teams wasn’t much of a contest, as Dallas blew out New York in a 44-20 laugher. The Cowboys have since solidified themselves as one of the best teams in the NFL this year, led by an explosive offense and a surprisingly strong defense.
The Giants, on the other hand, have slogged through an injury-plagued campaign that’s already resulted in the firing of offensive coordinator Jason Garrett.
Will Dallas dominate New York again? Or will the Giants upset the Cowboys at home? Let’s dive deeper with our Cowboys vs Giants predictions and best bets.
Please note that all NFL Week 15 odds and lines are current as of 10:00 a.m. ET on Wednesday, December 15.
Cowboys vs Giants Prediction
Injuries have been the story for New York all season, and this week is no different. Daniel Jones is dealing with a neck injury and has not played since Week 12, leaving Mike Glennon to lead the Giants’ offense if he remains sidelined.
Rookie wideout Kadarius Toney is also questionable for Sunday’s contest, as he’s been hampered by an oblique issue and was just placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list Monday.
While injuries are largely to blame for New York’s poor play, they’re finally starting to get healthier with Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golladay, and Sterling Shepard back on the field. Their defense is also mostly intact and has played better lately, allowing 20 points or less in five of their last seven games.
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Regardless of whether Jones or Glennon is under center for New York, their defense should be able to keep things relatively close. Their unit has been especially effective at home, where they’ve surrendered just 18.0 points per contest at a modest 5.2 yards per play and only 331.5 yards per game.
The Cowboys have also been far less potent on the road, primarily because of Dak Prescott‘s pedestrian play away from home. He has an 8:8 TD/INT ratio when traveling and has thrown seven of his 10 interceptions this year in outdoor settings as well.
The G-Men have the secondary to make life difficult on Prescott and stall some drives, as New York has allowed the eighth-fewest passing yards per home game (207.2) and second-lowest yards per completion (8.9) at home. However, the G-Men will have to face Dallas without starting strong safety Xavier McKinney and starting cornerback Adoree’ Jackson with both players having been placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.
With Dallas nowhere near as effective offensively on the road and mid-December northeast weather also potentially playing a factor here, this game should be much closer than their last matchup. Look for the Cowboys to prevail in a tough, low-scoring affair.
Prediction: Cowboys 26, Giants 17
Cowboys vs Giants Best Bets
Best Bet: Giants +10.5 (-110) at FOX Bet
While the Cowboys are clearly the better team, a double-digit spread is a lot for a road team to cover, especially in a divisional matchup. Between New York’s stingy home defense and an underperforming road offense for Dallas, this game should be closer than what’s being projected on our NFL gameday odds.
From a statistical trend perspective, it’s worth noting that although the Cowboys are 3-0 ATS as a road favorite this season, their average margin of victory in those games is 7.7 points — well short of this number.
Meanwhile, the Giants are 3-2 ATS as a home underdog and an NFL-best 7-2 versus the number in NFC East games since the arrival of head coach Joe Judge at the start of last season.
While I think Dallas still pulls off the win, I like New York to cover.
Best Bet: Under 44.5 (-110) at FoxBet
The Cowboys are averaging nearly 12 points fewer per road game (23.9) than at home (35.5). The Giants are also allowing the fourth-fewest points per home contest (18.0) and have held two of their last three opponents there to single-digits.
The Under is also 5-0-1 in New York’s home games this season and 5-2 in Dallas’ away contests, making the Under our NFL bet of the day.