2021 NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 13 | Who To Pick In Knockout Pool Week 13

If you’re still alive in your NFL Survivor pool, props to you. Week after week, incredible upsets continue to take place across the NFL, wiping away numerous pool players as the season progresses.

I’ve been out of my pool since Week 8 but am here to provide analysis on the best selections each week for those who are still competing for the grand prize in their pools.

So let’s get right to it. Here are my survivor picks for NFL Week 13.

2021 NFL Survivor Pool Grid Week 13

Road TeamHome TeamOpening LineCurrent LineProb HmTm WProb RdTmWProb HmTmCvProb RdTmCv
Kansas CityDenver-3-100.32780.67220.57550.4245
DallasPhiladelphia-3.5-70.490.510.63250.3675
PittsburghBaltimore+6.5+4.50.62720.37280.50.5
CincinnatiCleveland+1.5+30.44270.55730.39890.6011
Green BayDetroit-11-20.23250.76750.33650.6635
TennesseeHouston-10-10.50.2510.7490.52310.4769
IndianapolisJacksonville-8.5-15.50.17110.82890.53730.4627
ChicagoMinnesota+6+30.63750.36250.5380.462
WashingtonN.Y. Giants-4-70.4680.5320.61910.3809
SeattleArizona+5+6.50.65220.34780.48850.5115
New OrleansAtlanta-3.5-4.50.37170.62830.49860.5014
N.Y. JetsBuffalo+17+170.88950.11050.51990.4801
San FranciscoLA Rams+6.5+40.61360.38640.49940.5006
New EnglandMiami-2.5-6.50.33750.66250.51120.4888
CarolinaTampa Bay+16.5+80.8350.1650.61740.3826
LA ChargersLas Vegas-2.5-30.47760.52240.54550.4545

The above survivor pool grid, created by Todd Beck of “The Prediction Tracker,” uses the average of the top computer ratings in the sports betting industry including computer systems like Sagarin, ESPN FPI, Massey Ratings, Stat Fox, and many, many more.

To read this grid properly, the opening line and current line are based on the road team.

Keep in mind that when this article is posted, current lines can change and probability for teams can also change based on breaking news. All NFL Week 13 odds and lines are current as of Wednesday, December 1, at 9:00 a.m. ET.

2021 NFL Survivor Pool: Best Picks to Win in Week 13

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos

Believe it or not, I haven’t used the Kansas City Chiefs all season. The Chiefs were difficult to trust for a while after their slow start, but they’ve come on strong by winning their last four games in a row prior to last week’s bye.

Surprisingly, Kansas City’s defense has led the charge, yielding just 47 total points during the win streak. A stingy defense paired with a dangerous offense makes the Chiefs incredibly difficult to beat.

The Denver Broncos are also on a hot streak, winning three of their last four. With their offense averaging just 20.7 points per game, however, it’s hard to envision them keeping pace with Kansas City on the road during Sunday Night Football.

The Prediction Tracker has the Chiefs’ win probability at 67.52 percent, which is a really good number for our NFL bet of the day — especially in Week 13 when most teams have already been selected.

Betting Pick: Chiefs -10 (-105) at Caesars

spread

-105

Chiefs To Cover -10 Spread vs Broncos (NFL Week 13)

DEN @ KC | 12/05, 1:00 PM ET

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Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Jets

The Philadelphia Eagles just couldn’t get it going offensively against the New York Giants last week, losing 13-7 in ugly fashion. They’ll look to get back on track against a pitiful New York Jets defense that’s surrendering the most points and second-most yards per game this year.

Last week’s loss aside, the Eagles have been playing better lately with three wins in their last five games. They’ve found their identity as a run-first team under Jalen Hurts, fashioning themselves in a similar mold to the Baltimore Ravens.

With the 5-7 Eagles still in the hunt for a playoff spot, they should come out with a better effort this week. The 3-8 Jets, on the other hand, are coming off a victory over the lowly Houston Texans but have yet to win consecutive games this year.

Philly remains 6.5-point road favorites on our NFL gameday odds and the Prediction Tracker has them winning 71.09 percent of the time. New York won’t be winning two straight games — no chance!

Betting Pick: Eagles -6.5 (-110) at Caesars

spread

-110

Eagles To Cover -6.5 Spread @ Jets (NFL Week 13)

PHI @ NYJ | 12/05, 1:00 PM ET

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Jalen Hurts Philadelphia Eagles QB

Look for Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles to bounce back against the New York Jets in NFL Week 13. (Image: USA TODAY Sports)


2021 NFL Survivor Pools: Sleeper Team To Win

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings

While the Detroit Lions are 0-10-1, four of their losses have come by three points or less. They keep coming up short in close games, but this could be the week where they finally get over the hump.

Not only are the Lions at home, but they also have extra rest after playing on Thanksgiving. After playing three straight games decided by three points or less, they know they can be competitive and should be extra motivated to get a win against a division rival in front of their home crowd.

What’s more, Detroit lost by just two points to the Minnesota Vikings when they first faced off back in Week 5. Dan Campbell has the Lions playing better and more consistently now, whereas the Vikings will be shorthanded without Dalvin Cook.

Minnesota’s defense has also struggled this season, allowing more yards than the offense has managed and yielding 30+ points in three of their last four games. It hasn’t been easy for Jared Goff this year, but he’s coming off arguably his best game of the season and could be poised for another strong performance.

All things considered, the Lions are live dogs and have a real chance to upset the Vikes at home. I wouldn’t bet against them this week.

2021 NFL Survivor Pools: Future Team Value Pick to Save

Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers

It’s been a rough year for the Seattle Seahawks, but I’m still scared of betting against them. The San Francisco 49ers are clearly the better team, but it’s hard to bet on the road team in a rivalry game, especially when it’s being played in Seattle.

While Russell Wilson hasn’t been the same since coming back from the IR, it’s only a matter of time before he finds his rhythm again. It might not happen against the Niners, who have allowed just 334.1 yards per game, but it could.

I’m not taking any chances betting against Wilson this late into a Survivor Pool.

2021 NFL Survivor Pools: Chalk Pick That Could Lose

Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints

Both of these teams have scuffled lately, with the Dallas Cowboys losing three of their last four and the New Orleans Saints dropping four in a row. While New Orleans has been undone by injuries, Dallas simply hasn’t been playing good football.

The Saints will try to end their skid by shaking things up at quarterback, where Taysom Hill may get the nod over Trevor Siemian. Hill performed admirably with Drew Brees out last year, going 2-2 in his four starts. He’ll also benefit from the impending return of Alvin Kamara.

Even if Hill doesn’t start, Siemian will have a short leash moving forward after losing all four of his starts this year. A change under center could light a spark under this flagging Saints offense, especially at home during Thursday Night Football.

Thanks for reading our Week 13 Survivor Pool Picks! For more NFL betting tips, read our NFL Week 13 Best Bets.

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Schedule & Odds

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NFL Betting News

  • Early money slightly leaning towards the over in the 49ers-Rams matchup

    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting good two-way action on the over/under for the NFC Championship Game matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the over of 46 points has attracted 55% of the bets and 60% of the money thus far. Much moreso than the AFC Championship Game, the betting splits on the point spread and total in this game are much more evenly split, so the sportsbook does not have too much liability on either at the moment. From a moneyline perspective, Los Angeles's -170 moneyline odds have attracted 60% of the bets and 70% of the money.

    SF vs. LAR Game Page

  • Early bettors give slight lean to the Rams over the 49ers

    Based on the betting splits at DraftKings Sportsbook, the favored Los Angeles Rams are getting slightly more betting attention in their matchup with the San Francisco 49ers.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, Los Angeles's -3.5 point spread has received 65% of the bets and 61% of the handle thus far. Bettors are clearly torn in this matchup considering the Rams have arguably been playing better football through the first two playoff games, while the 49ers have won six consecutive games against the Rams, including a thrilling Week 18 overtime victory in Los Angeles.

    SF vs. LAR Game Page

  • Early money more than 4/1 on the over in the Bengals-Chiefs matchup

    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting one-sided betting action for Sunday's over/under in the matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the over of 54.5 points has attracted 75% of the bets and 85% of the money thus far. At this point, the sportsbook has big liability to the Chiefs point spread and the over in this matchup, as their most ideal scenario would be a Bengals cover in a low-scoring game at the moment. From a moneyline perspective, Kansas City's -335 moneyline odds have attracted 58% of the bets and 61% of the money.

    CIN vs. KC Game Page

  • Early money 3/1 on the Chiefs over the Bengals

    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting one-sided betting action for Sunday's matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs, as the majority of the action is backing the favored Chiefs.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, Kansas City's -7 point spread has received 61% of the bets and 76% of the handle thus far. Cincinnati is shaping up to be the biggest need of any side or any total this weekend, as the public seems to be enamored with the Chiefs after their thrilling Divisional Round win over Buffalo.

    CIN vs. KC Game Page

  • 49ers-Rams over/under reaches lowest number of the week

    After another line movement, the over/under for the NFC Championship matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams has reached its lowest total of the week.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the 49ers-Rams over/under on Sunday night was posted at 47.5 points. It was quickly bet down to 46.5 in less than 24 hours. However, it has once again moved toward the under, and now currently sits at 46 points. Given that there has not yet been buyback on the over, it is extremely unlikely we see the total get back to anywhere close to the 47.5 points it opened at.

    SF vs. LAR Game Page