At times last season, the AFC East appeared to be the most competitive division in football.
However, surprise upstarts in the Dolphins and Jets faded down the back half of the campaign, allowing the Buffalo Bills to run away with their third consecutive AFC East division title.
But who will win the AFC East this year?
Let’s dig into the latest AFC East winner odds to make a prediction and pick out our favorite sleeper bet.
AFC East Winner Betting Odds 2023
Note: These AFC East betting odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Thursday, March 9, at 2 p.m. ET. Be careful, as many of these NFL odds may shift as we get closer to the 2023 NFL season.
- Buffalo Bills (+100)
- New York Jets (+250)
- Miami Dolphins (+425)
- New England Patriots (+650)
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Unsurprisingly, the Bills have opened as the betting favorites to win the AFC East. That makes plenty of sense since Buffalo has won 37 regular-season games over the past three years and Josh Allen is perennially amongst the favorites in the NFL MVP odds.
What may come as slightly more of a shock is that the Jets currently have the second-best odds after finishing last season with a 7-10 record. However, these odds are reflecting the likelihood that New York uses this offseason to make an upgrade at quarterback, which was the primary reason for the team’s 2022 shortcomings.
The same could be said for the Dolphins and Patriots, who round out the division, and both teams will have hope of dethroning the Bills in 2023. Miami needs quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to stay healthy after he suffered (at least) two concussions last season, while New England will be hoping that new OC Bill O’Brien can get more out of Mac Jones.
AFC East Winner Best Bet
Buffalo Bills (+100) | DraftKings Sportsbook
Let’s not get cute here.
Although the Bills came up short in the playoffs again last season, they truly have picked up the mantle that Tom Brady and the Patriots left behind by dominating the AFC East.
That looks set to continue in 2023 as Allen is the best quarterback in the division and Buffalo’s roster is primed for another run at the Super Bowl. Von Miller will return from a torn ACL to give this defense a much-needed boost and it seems likely that GM Brandon Beane will add another wideout to complement Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis.
Even if Aaron Rodgers ends up in New York, I still think the AFC East runs through Buffalo. It may be worth waiting to see if this number drops slightly if that comes to fruition, but the Bills have plenty of value here at plus-money odds.
AFC East Winner Sleeper Pick
New York Jets (+250) | DraftKings Sportsbook
If you’re making this bet, you better hope Rodgers winds up in New York.
With Derek Carr already out of the picture, the Jets could be left to pick from the free-agent quarterback scrap heap if they don’t lure the future Hall of Famer out of Green Bay.
Sure, you could argue that either Jimmy Garoppolo or Ryan Tannehill would represent an upgrade to either Zach Wilson or Mike White, but neither would represent the potential shift in team status that Rodgers would.
Still, New York has plenty of young talent on this roster and Robert Saleh‘s defense looked playoff-ready at times last season. If new OC Nathaniel Hackett can kickstart this offense, the Jets could take advantage of a last-place schedule and contend for their first division title since 2002.
AFC East Winner By Year
| Year | AFC East Winner | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 2013 | New England Patriots | 12-4 |
| 2014 | New England Patriots | 12-4 |
| 2015 | New England Patriots | 12-4 |
| 2016 | New England Patriots | 14-2 |
| 2017 | New England Patriots | 13-3 |
| 2018 | New England Patriots | 11-5 |
| 2019 | New England Patriots | 12-4 |
| 2020 | Buffalo Bills | 13-3 |
| 2021 | Buffalo Bills | 11-6 |
| 2022 | Buffalo Bills | 13-3 |
