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AFC East Division Winner Odds 2022 | NFL Division Win Futures & Betting Picks

Posted: Jun 17, 2022Last updated: Jun 17, 2022

In 2021, the Buffalo Bills were the preseason favorite to win the AFC East, and they delivered with an 11-6 record.

This season, Buffalo is an even bigger favorite to win the division at (-190) odds at BetMGM. Of all 32 NFL teams, only the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a larger favorite to win their respective division.

The question in the AFC East is if any of the other three teams can challenge the Bills. The Patriots, Dolphins, and Jets all have young quarterbacks that could significantly improve this season. New York has been one of the worst teams in the NFL in recent years, but in a small 17-game season, anything can happen.

Read below, to find out the result of my AFC East simulations and look at each team’s schedule with win probabilities and projected spreads for each game.

Note: These NFC East futures bet odds are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook and current as of Friday, June 17, at 5 p.m. ET. Be careful, as many of these NFL odds might shift as we get closer to the 2022 NFL season.

AFC East Winner Betting Odds

  • Buffalo Bills (-190)
  • Miami Dolphins (+400)
  • New England Patriots (+400)
  • New York Jets (+1800)

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AFC East Division Simulation

AFC EastProjected WinsProjected LossesDivision Winner %Breakeven Odds
Buffalo Bills12.74.375.2%-303
Miami Dolphins8.28.811.5%770
New England Patriots8.28.810.9%817
New York Jets5.311.72.4%4067

Bills Schedule & Win Probabilities

WeekOpponentProjected SpreadProjected Win %
1@ Rams-1.552.5%
2Titans-8.580.2%
3@ Dolphins-5.569.0%
4@ Ravens-3.564.3%
5Steelers-11.588.2%
6@ Chiefs+0.550.0%
8Packers-5.569.0%
9@ Jets-10.586.0%
10Vikings-980.7%
11Browns-7.578.1%
12@ Lions-9.581.1%
13@ Patriots-5.569.0%
14Jets-14.594.9%
15Dolphins-9.581.1%
16@ Bears-1083.6%
17@ Bengals-3.564.3%
18Patriots-9.581.1%

The Bills should be favored in 16-of-17 regular-season games this year. The one game where they won’t be favored is on the road against the Chiefs in Week 6. Even in tough road games against the Rams (Week 1) and the Ravens (Week 4), the Bills should still be narrow favorites.

Most power rankings have Buffalo as the best team in the NFL. When you look at the Bills’ odds, they are Super Bowl favorites and have a win total of 11.5 wins. My numbers say that Buffalo should win 12.7 games this season, meaning they should be even more successful than their odds suggest.

Dolphins Schedule & Win Probabilities

WeekOpponentProjected SpreadProjected Win %
1Patriots-253.5%
2@ Ravens+434.2%
3Bills5.531.1%
4@ Bengals+434.2%
5@ Jets-359.4%
6Vikings-253.5%
7Steelers-465.8%
8@ Lions-253.5%
9@ Bears-2.554.5%
10Browns-0.550.0%
12Texans-7.578.1%
13@ 49ers+5.531.1%
14@ Chargers+5.531.1%
15@ Bills+9.518.9%
16Packers+1.547.5%
17@ Patriots246.5%
18Jets-775.2%

Among all starting quarterbacks last season, Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa had only the 21st best EPA (Expected Points Added) last season. Outside of New York’s Zach Wilson, this was the worst among AFC East quarterbacks.

For the Dolphins to go from a .500-level team to a division winner, they need Tua to improve in his third NFL season. I project the Dolphins to be a .500-level team again this year, and Miami’s win total is set at nine wins.

Jets Schedule & Win Probabilities

WeekOpponentProjected SpreadProjected Win %
1Ravens+531.9%
2@ Browns+8.519.8%
3Bengals+531.9%
4@ Steelers+531.9%
5Dolphins+340.6%
6@ Packers+10.514.0%
7@ Broncos+919.3%
8Patriots+340.6%
9Bills+10.514.0%
11@ Patriots+724.8%
12Bears-1.552.5%
13@ Vikings+724.8%
14@ Bills+14.55.1%
15Lions-151.3%
16Jaguars-1.552.5%
17@ Seahawks+246.5%
18@ Dolphins+724.8%

The Jets are perpetual bottom feeders of the NFL and AFC East. Last year they finished the season with a 4-13 record, and in 2020, they were an even worse 2-14.

New York’s win total this season has been set at 5.5 or 6 depending on where you look. I project the Jets to win five games this season, despite only being favored in three.

The issue for New York is that the three games in which they are likely to be favored aren’t until the back half of the season. These are home games against the Bears (Week 12), Lions (Week 15), and Jaguars (Week 16).

If the Jets are out of playoff contention at that point, there is a chance they may tank those games to get a better draft pick.

Patriots Schedule & Win Probabilities

WeekOpponentProjected SpreadProjected Win %
1@ Dolphins+246.5%
2@ SteelersPICK50.0%
3RavensPICK50.0%
4@ Packers+5.531.1%
5Lions-670.7%
6@ Browns+3.535.7%
7Bears-6.572.4%
8@ Jets-359.4%
9Colts-0.550.0%
11Jets-775.2%
12@ Vikings+246.5%
13Bills+5.531.1%
14@ Cardinals+3.535.7%
15@ Raiders+2.545.5%
16BengalsPICK50.0%
17Dolphins-253.5%
18@ Bills+9.518.9%

The Patriots are the most polarizing team in the NFL. Even without quarterback Tom Brady for the last two seasons, they still have head coach Bill Belichick.

It’s hard to figure out what’s going to happen with the Patriots this season. They have a young quarterback in Mac Jones, and they should be an underdog or a favorite of a touchdown or less in 16-of-17 games this season. In other words, they should play a lot of close games.

New England’s win total has been set at 8.5 wins, which I largely agree with as they are a .500-level team. The thing to keep in mind when betting the Patriots to win the division is if they go .500 or better in their first six games, then they should contend this season as I have them favored in only one of those contests.

AFC East Winner Prediction

Buffalo Bills (-190) at BetMGM

The Bills are the best team in the NFL this season and arguably were the best team last year. They had an average scoring margin of 11.5, which was the highest in the league last season. Even at such juicy odds of (-190), they are a fantastic bet to repeat as division champions.

Buffalo won the AFC East in 75.2% of my simulations, which is the highest among all 32 NFL teams this season. While betting $19 to win $10 is not a hefty return, it does have a higher expected value than the vast majority of NFL futures you could bet on for the 2022 season.

The Patriots and Dolphins are .500-level teams and the Jets are still the Jets. A lot could happen, like Josh Allen getting hurt or other injuries adding up, but that’s football.

If the Bills stay healthy, they will win the AFC East.

Author

Kevin Davis

Kevin Davis is a Betting Analyst at The Game Day residing in Hoboken, NJ. Previously a Bronx resident, Kevin got his start betting on sports at his local Bronx barbershop. When sports betting was legalized across the river in Jersey, Kevin was there on the ground floor making regular trips to the Hoboken PATH station or for soup dumplings in Fort Lee. Previously, Kevin has written for The Action Network, and Vegas Insider.

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