Last year, Georgia finally broke through Alabama’s Iron Curtain and won the National Championship.
This season, with a win total of 11.5, the question is whether or not the Bulldogs can run the table in the regular season.
Since 2018, there have been three teams to go undefeated and win the National Championship: Alabama (2020), LSU (2019), and Clemson (2018).
Georgia was undefeated in the regular season last year, only losing to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. This season, it might be trickier for the Bulldogs to go undefeated in their regular-season games as they only return 10-of-22 starters, including only three on defense.
My model projects Georgia to be favored by at least two touchdowns in each game this season, but can the Bulldogs avoid an upset and run the table again?
Georgia Odds 2022: National Championship & Win Total
All Georgia NCAAF betting odds are current as of June 3, 2022 at 9 a.m. ET at Caesars Sportsbook.
- Win National Championship: +325
- Win Total: 11.5 (Over +150 / Under -180)
- Win SEC: +120
Georgia Schedule
| Game | Opponent | Home/Away | Spread | Win Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oregon | Neutral | -15 | 87.40% |
| 2 | Samford | Home | -44 | 99.87% |
| 3 | South Carolina | Home | -29.5 | 99.00% |
| 4 | Kent St | Home | -37.5 | 99.48% |
| 5 | Missouri | Away | -25 | 98.73% |
| 6 | Auburn | Home | -28.5 | 98.94% |
| 7 | Vanderbilt | Home | -44.5 | 99.90% |
| 8 | Florida | Neutral | -16 | 88.60% |
| 9 | Tennessee | Home | -22.5 | 98.58% |
| 10 | Mississippi St | Away | -15 | 87.40% |
| 11 | Kentucky | Away | -14.5 | 86.80% |
| 12 | Georgia Tech | Home | -31.5 | 99.12% |
Georgia Key Games
Georgia vs Oregon (9/3/2022):
- Oregon Model Projected Line: Georgia -15
- Game of the Year Line: Georgia -16.5 at BetWay
- Georgia goes Over 11.5 win total in 63.3% of simulations where they beat Oregon
Georgia vs Florida (10/29/2022):
- Florida Model Projected Line: Georgia -16
- Game of the Year Line: Georgia -14.5 at BetWay
- Georgia goes Over 11.5 win total in 61.7% of simulations where they beat Florida
Georgia vs Tennessee (11/5/2022):
- Tennessee Model Projected Line: Georgia -22.5
- Game of the Year Line: Georgia -15.5
- Georgia goes Over 11.5 win total in 56.2% of simulations where they beat Tennessee.
All Key Games:
- Georgia goes Over 11.5 win total in 72.4% of simulations where they beat Oregon, Florida, and Tennessee.
Georgia Win Total Bet
Georgia Over 11.5 Wins (+150)
Georgia has a tough schedule as an SEC team that also plays Oregon in one of its non-conference games. Despite that, UGA should go undefeated this season. In fact, after simulating the Bulldogs’ season 25,000 times, they went undefeated 54.7% of the time.
Georgia’s toughest tests will be neutral site games against Oregon and Florida, and an away game against Kentucky. If Georgia can win all three games, then according to my simulations, they have a 72.4% chance of going undefeated.
Their most difficult matchup this season will likely be an SEC Championship Game rematch against Alabama, but fortunately for UGA, it will avoid the Crimson Tide during the regular season.
Last year, Georgia beat each of its opponents by an average of 26.9 points, which was the best in the country. The Bulldogs’ defense allowed only 10.4 points per game, which not only was the best in the country, but was the fewest points per game allowed for any team since Notre Dame in 2013.
The Bulldogs may have a whole new set of characters in their offense, but they have the most important person still on their roster, head coach Kirby Smart. College Football is not a meritocracy like professional sports where the worst teams get the best draft picks.
The best recruits like to go to winning programs like Georgia, and that is why despite new defensive players, the Georgia defense should still be one of the best units in the country this year.
