Rarely does the NFL produce so many robust point spreads in one offering.
For those in search of close games, and there were many of those last week, Week 11 might not produce the same kind of results.
In fact, it’s almost a little too good to be true. Well, at least when it comes to Survivor.
With ample games above or hovering around double-digit point spreads, this feels like a strange week overall. Although after Cincinnati and Buffalo took tumbles in Week 10, this is perhaps just the right time to take a breath.
Here’s a breakdown of NFL Week 11. As always, survive and advance.
Survivor Week 11 Best Picks
Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears
There were at least three games warranting consideration for the top spot, and all were worthy of discussion. In the end, however, the Lions were the pick.
That sentence still doesn’t compute quite right, although Detroit has gone from plucky underdog to an offensive force in a short period of time. The days of the Old Lions are long gone right now.
Last week, Detroit scored 41 points, clipping the Chargers on the road in Week 10. Quarterback Jared Goff was once again brilliant, which has become the norm.
Having played three of its last four games on the road, Detroit heads home to take on a team still struggling to score points. The Bears were able to get past the Panthers, although it wasn’t pretty.
This won’t be pretty, either. There are bigger point spreads on the board, but this one feels right.
Take the Lions to win by double digits.
Use our NFL Eliminator tips to place bets with the top NFL odds:
Miami Dolphins vs Las Vegas Raiders
If Detroit isn’t the right fit, Miami might be.
The Dolphins were off last week after falling to the Chiefs, and the bye came at the perfect time. With the rest of the AFC East struggling, Miami is in position to take firm control of the division and likely never look back.
Sure, the Raiders have put up plenty of fight since Antonio Pierce took over as interim coach. The performance over the past few weeks is admirable.
The issue, however, is offense. Asking QB Aidan O’Connell to go toe-to-toe with Tua Tagovailoa is asking too much, which doesn’t need any further explanation. And while the Raiders are a good story, this outcome is likely to be far different.
Look for the Miami offense to get cooking quickly at home, which it has done against inferior teams all year long.
This one could get ugly.
Survivor Week 11 Rankings Grid
|1||Miami Dolphins||@ Washington Commanders||A|
|2||Jacksonville Jaguars||Cincinnati Bengals||A|
|3||Dallas Cowboys||Seattle Seahawks||A|
|4||Kansas City Chiefs||@ Green Bay Packers||A-|
|5||Pittsburgh Steelers||Arizona Cardinals||A-|
|6||Los Angeles Chargers||@ New England Patriots||A-|
|7||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||Carolina Panthers||B+|
|8||Los Angeles Rams||Cleveland Browns||B+|
|9||Detroit Lions||@ New Orleans Saints||B|
|10||Houston Texans||Denver Broncos||B|
|11||San Francisco 49ers||@ Philadelphia Eagles||B|
|12||Atlanta Falcons||@ New York Jets||B-|
|13||Tennessee Titans||Indianapolis Colts||B-|
|14||Indianapolis Colts||@ Tennessee Titans||C+|
|15||New York Jets||Atlanta Falcons||C+|
|16||Philadelphia Eagles||San Francisco 49ers||C+|
|17||Denver Broncos||@ Houston Texans||C|
|18||New Orleans Saints||Detroit Lions||C|
|19||Cleveland Browns||@ Los Angeles Rams||C-|
|20||Carolina Panthers||@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers||C-|
|21||New England Patriots||Los Angeles Chargers||D+|
|22||Arizona Cardinals||@ Pittsburgh Steelers||D+|
|23||Green Bay Packers||Kansas City Chiefs||D|
|24||Seattle Seahawks||@ Dallas Cowboys||D-|
|25||Cincinnati Bengals||@ Jacksonville Jaguars||D-|
|26||Washington Commanders||Miami Dolphins||D-|
Survivor Week 11 Sleeper
Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals
Originally, Cleveland was firmly penciled in this spot. The injury to Deshaun Watson, however, forced us to be creative. We’re staying in the division to do so.
Betting against Joe Burrow is never fun, although the Ravens are a solid play on a short week. Both teams head into this one off of disappointing losses, although the Bengals’ defeat against the Texans was the more jarring outcome.
Thursday night games have a knack for producing low-scoring, ugly scores. And in that instance, Baltimore is more inclined to milk the clock, let Lamar Jackson move and keep the ball away from Cincinnati’s offense.
In a week with so many fascinating options, there are better ways to go. But in a bind, backing a home team with an elite QB on little rest isn’t a bad option.
Survivor Week 11 Team to Save for the Future
Houston Texans vs Arizona Cardinals
One could argue that the Texans and CJ Stroud are the biggest story (and surprise) in the NFL.
Stroud isn’t just a candidate for Rookie of the Year – he’s played his way into the MVP conversation. That conversation took on new life last week when Stroud and the Texans conquered the Bengals.
So, why pump the brakes?
Kyler Murray’s return provided the Cardinals a spark last week. While they were unable to get past the Falcons, the offense did show life.
Sure, the Texans feel more equipped to win this game. Stroud has been excellent, and the team has clearly improved.
But perhaps we should slow down expectations along the way. While the Texans are worthy of the utmost praise, a regression of some kind would not surprise.
Survivor Week 11 Chalk Team That Could Lose
Los Angeles Chargers at Green Bay Packers
Of course, the Chargers can lose. Such has become the theme under head coach Brandon Staley, who enters Week 11 squarely on the hot seat.
Despite the talent and the quarterback, Los Angeles remains a tremendous work in progress. It can beat any team; it can lose to any team. Such is life as a Charger in 2023.
This particular road trip feels problematic for a few reasons. For starters, Los Angeles is coming off another disappointing loss. The emotions of said loss could carry over.
Traveling to Green Bay won’t be easy, even if the Packers are a shell of what they once were. While Jordan Love vs Justin Herbert looks and feels like a tremendous mismatch, the oddsmakers don’t view it that way.
Like many games that came before it, don’t be surprised if the Chargers are in a nail-biter against an inferior opponent. We’re staying far away from this one.