After some respectable weeks late in the regular season, NFL Week 18 did not work out well, especially as the Lions missed out on my recommendation of taking them to go over 21.5 points. I cringed as Detroit took out Green Bay with 20 points.
The NFL Wild Card round offers a chance for a fresh start. I am leaning to Buffalo, Dallas, and even the New York Giants to roll up a healthy amount of points. The running games will be key factors for the Jaguars and Seahawks.
See which players and game bets I’m targeting for Super Wild Card Weekend prop bets below.
Scott Engel 2022 NFL props betting: 85-151 (-78.5 units)
NFL Wild Card Player Props
NFL Wild Card odds used for prop bets are from BetMGM Sportsbook (unless otherwise noted) and current as of Thursday, Jan. 12, at noon ET.
Travis Etienne: Over 76.5 Rushing Yards (-110) vs Chargers at BetMGM Sportsbook
WAGER: 2 Units
Etienne has a prime matchup to exploit against the Chargers, who allowed the second-most rushing yards to running backs during the regular season. He rushed for 80-plus yards in three of his final four regular season games.
Easing pressure on Trevor Lawrence and establishing offensive balance will be primary goals for the Jacksonville offense via Etienne carrying frequently.
Given ETN’s likely busy day, I would also take the Over on his rushing attempts at 16.5 (+100).
Josh Allen: Over 257.5 Passing Yards (-110) vs Dolphins - BetMGM Sportsbook
WAGER: 2 Units
Allen passed for 704 yards in two regular season matchups with Miami this season, marking this wager as a top Wild Card NFL bet of the day. The Dolphins’ 27th-ranked pass defense will be torched frequently as Buffalo may race to an easy win.
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The Dolphins are coming into this first-round playoff game being overmatched because of their quarterback issues. The Miami defense will be overworked as Buffalo sails into the divisional round behind Allen, who had two 300-yard games in last season’s AFC playoffs.
Tee Higgins: Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-115) vs Ravens - BetMGM Sportsbook
WAGER: 1.5 Units
Higgins had a season-low seven receiving yards on one reception in the regular season finale against the Ravens, but he was still targeted seven times and I am expecting a good rebound week. Higgins showed last season that he can produce well when the intensity increases in the playoffs.
In three playoff games after the first round last season, Higgins totaled 299 receiving yards. The Ravens ranked 28th in receiving yards allowed to WRs during the regular season.
Kenneth Walker III: Under 59.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at 49ers - BetMGM Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Walker finished the regular season with three 100-yard rushing performances, but prior to that trio of outings, the 49ers limited him to 47 rushing yards in Week 15. San Francisco has the best rush defense in the NFC and will be dialed in on containing Walker from the outset.
49ers defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans knows the Seahawks want to establish the ground game, and if his unit stifles Walker frequently, Geno Smith will be put in consistent adverse passing situations.
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NFL Wild Card Prop Bets
Cowboys vs Buccaneers: DAL Over 23.5 Total Points (-130) - BetMGM Sportsbook
WAGER: 3 Units
I am writing off last week’s six-point showing for the Cowboys, as they knew the odds were heavily against them changing the outlook of any playoff positioning. Their three-point loss at Tampa Bay in the season opener is a distant memory.
Before Week 18, Dallas had scored 27-plus points in nine consecutive games. The Cowboys averaged 27.5 points per game, second in the NFC during the regular season, and the Buccaneers allowed 24-plus points in three of four games prior to a meaningless Week 18 game.
Seahawks vs 49ers: SF Moneyline & Under 41.5 (+140) - BetMGM Sportsbook
WAGER: 2 Units
I expect this to be a lower-scoring game, as San Francisco has the NFC’s best defense and Seattle has averaged 16.7 points per game allowed in their last four to finish the regular season.
Brock Purdy has passed for over 240 yards once in his six games guiding the offense, and he could start to show signs of weakness in a playoff game. But the 49ers have the proper playmakers to ultimately prevail in a lower-scoring game.
Dolphins vs Bills: BUF Over 14.5 Points In 1st Half (+105)
WAGER: 2 Units
The Bills lead the NFL in first-half points per game scored at home, at 19.7 points per game. Buffalo scored 21 first-half points in its regular season meeting with Miami at home.
Miami has allowed an AFC-high 18.6 first-half points per game on the road. The defense will certainly spend a lot of time on the field with Skylar Thompson at QB in the Wild Card round mismatch of the week.
Giants vs Vikings: NYG Moneyline & Over 49.5 Points (+400) - BetMGM Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
This is my most daring play of the Wild Card Round, but I believe in Brian Daboll to coax another surprising achievement out of his team, and I do not believe in Kirk Cousins in the postseason. It took a 61-yard field goal for the Vikings to prevail over the Giants in Week 16.
The Vikings have the NFC’s worst defense, and that will prove to be another reason for their quick elimination while also contributing to another high-scoring matchup, The two teams combined for 51 points in their regular season matchup.
