It was a terrific finish to my NFL regular season in Week 18, where I racked up 6.95 units in profit. I’ll try to make it two winning weeks in a row with my wild card picks.
Read on for my best, longshot, and same-game parlays for Wild Card Weekend. Check out my X account, @FAmmiranteTFJ, to see my full betting card.
Let’s bounce back with my NFL Wild Card parlays.
Best NFL Wild Card Parlay
Frank Ammirante 2023 Betting Record: 313-375 (+22.09 units)
All NFL gameday odds are current as of Tuesday, Jan. 9, at 11 a.m. ET from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Wild Card Top Parlay (+209)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 Units
- Bills -9.5 (-120) vs Steelers
- Cowboys -6.5 (-145) vs Packers
The Wild Card top parlay includes two alternate spreads on home favorites.
We’ll start with the Bills -9.5, buying a half-point from the 10-point spread to get below the key number of 10.
Buffalo comes into the playoffs on a five-game winning streak, limiting opposing teams to only 16.8 points per game during this stretch.
It’s going to be tough for the Steelers to move the ball effectively with Mason Rudolph under center.
What’s even worse for Pittsburgh is that T.J. Watt (knee) will be out for this game. That’s a major blow to this Steelers defense. According to StatMuse, Pittsburgh is 1-10 in 11 games without Watt in the lineup.
Look for the Bills to win this one by 10-plus points.
We’ll finish it off with the Cowboys -6.5, bringing the spread down from 7.5 to below the key number of seven.
All we need is Dallas to win by a touchdown here, which is a reasonable ask when you consider how dominant it has been at home.
Since losing 19-3 at home to the Bucs in Week 1 of the 2022 season, the Cowboys have won 14 straight home games with Dak Prescott under center, 10 of which were by seven or more points.
While Jordan Love has had an impressive year in his first season as starting quarterback, it’s going to be tough for the Packers to keep pace with this high-octane Cowboys’ offense.
Target these two plays for our NFL bet of the day.
Longshot NFL Wild Card Parlay
Wild Card Longshot Parlay (+318)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.32 Units
- Browns ML (-148) at Texans
- Rams ML (+150) at Lions
The longshot parlay features two road teams to win outright.
I’ll start with the Browns to beat the Texans for the second time this season. When these teams met in Week 16, Cleveland won 36-22, with Joe Flacco throwing for 368 yards and Amari Cooper putting up 265 yards in a record-setting day.
Now granted, that game was without C.J. Stroud, but there’s only so much that a rookie quarterback can do when your defense is performing like this.
After getting shredded by Flacco in Week 16, we saw the Texans get gashed on the ground for 188 yards by Jonathan Taylor. If Gardner Minshew (141 yards) played better, the Colts would have likely won that game.
Cleveland is the more well-rounded team here, so I’ll take it as road favorites, especially with how well Flacco has played.
I’ll finish it off by rolling with the Rams to upset the Lions. Los Angeles comes into the playoffs red hot, having won seven of its last eight games.
The biggest mismatch here is the Rams’ passing game vs the Lions pass defense.
Matthew Stafford has thrown for 1,476 yards with 11 touchdowns and two interceptions in his last five games. The Lions rank 25th in EPA vs the pass, giving up 268.3 yards per game through the air.
We’ve seen wide receivers like CeeDee Lamb and Justin Jefferson completely torch this secondary in the last three weeks. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp do the same.
Bet on Stafford getting back at his former team in a win in Detroit.
NFL Wild Card Same-Game Parlay
Steelers vs Bills Same-Game Parlay (+124)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.77 Units
- Bills Over 20.5 Points (-210)
- Josh Allen Anytime TD (-105)
The Wild Card Same-Game Parlay heads back to Buffalo.
I’ll start off with the Bills to score 21-plus points, which is a low bar to clear, especially against a Steelers defense that will be without T.J. Watt.
Pittsburgh has given up 21-plus points in eight of 11 games without its stud edge rusher. During the Bills’ current five-game winning streak, they’ve cleared this number in four of those matchups.
Despite losing this prop last week, I’ll go back to the well with Josh Allen anytime touchdown. In his last six games with Joe Brady as play-caller, Allen has rushed for eight touchdowns.
It’s clear that Brady is emphasizing Allen on the ground, as the star quarterback has averaged 9.7 carries per game during this stretch.
Look for Allen to find the end zone in this spot.