I had huge success with NFL betting in Week 3, going +5.12 units, including hits on my longshot parlay and Same Game Parlay.
This article offers my best football parlay bet for Week 4, along with a longshot parlay and Same Game Parlay.
We’ll look to stay hot with our Week 4 parlays, hoping for a third winning week in a row.
Best NFL Week 4 Parlay
Frank Ammirante 2023 Betting Record: 29-34 (+0.81 units)
All NFL gameday odds are current as of Wednesday, Sept. 27, at noon from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Week 4 Top Parlay (-141)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 Units
- Eagles ML (-395) vs Commanders
- Cowboys ML (-270) vs Patriots
The top parlay features two heavy favorites on the moneyline.
We’ll start off with the Eagles (3-0) to take care of business against the division-rival Commanders (2-1).
Washington is coming off a 37-3 blowout loss to the Bills following wins over the Cardinals (1-2) and Broncos (0-3). While Sam Howell has made some good plays in his first year as starting quarterback, he’s also taken 19 sacks and committed six turnovers.
That’s bad news against an Eagles front seven that includes young studs like Jordan Davis and Jalen Carter.
Not to mention that the Commanders should have their hands full with a stacked Philly offense that has excelled in the running game so far, with D’Andre Swift rushing for 305 yards in his last two games.
I’ll finish it off with the Cowboys (2-1) to beat the Patriots (1-2).
After two blowout victories to start the year, Dallas laid an egg on the road against a vastly inferior Cardinals team. This is a classic bounce-back spot at home following that dramatic letdown.
The Cowboys still have one of the best defenses in the NFL despite losing top corner Trevon Diggs. It’s going to be tough for the Patriots to do enough offensively given their limited weapons.
While I’m not confident enough to lay the points with either of these favorites on the spread, I’d be shocked if they lost on Sunday.
Target these two moneylines in our NFL bet of the day.
Longshot NFL Week 4 Parlay
Week 4 Longshot Parlay (+281)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.2 Units
- Dolphins +2.5 (-102) at Bills
- Ravens/Browns: Under 40.5 (-108)
The longshot parlay features a point spread and total for a solid (+281) payout.
We’ll start off with the Dolphins +2.5 at the Bills. Miami’s offense has been easily the best in the NFL so far, and it’s coming off a 70-point outburst against the Broncos.
Head coach Mike McDaniel looks like a superstar, unleashing a new weapon in rookie running back De’Von Achane (233 total yards, four touchdowns in Week 3).
There’s also a good chance that Miami will get back one of its best players in Jaylen Waddle (concussion) this week.
Last season, each of these matchups was close, with the Dolphins winning one 21-19 and the Bills emerging victorious in their two other games (32-29 and 34-31). That last of those was without Tua Tagovailoa.
While the Bills are a Super Bowl contender in their own right, Tua is playing at an MVP level right now and I’m more comfortable taking the points here.
- See the full list of NFL Week 4 odds.
I’ll conclude the longshot parlay with the Under 41 in Ravens vs. Browns.
Cleveland’s defense looks fantastic so far, limiting opposing quarterbacks to only 136 passing yards per game.
Myles Garrett and company are likely to cause Lamar Jackson some problems in this one.
We’ve also seen Deshaun Watson struggle this year, ranking 20th in Expected Points Added (EPA) plus Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE) among all quarterbacks.
While Watson played much better in Week 3, that was against the Titans, who rank 29th with 8.4 yards per attempt allowed through the air.
This going figures to be much tougher against the Ravens, who have held opposing passers to 5.36 Y/A (third).
NFL Week 4 Same Game Parlay
Rams vs Colts Same Game Parlay (+166)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.3 Units
- Matthew Stafford: Over 257.5 Passing Yards (-120)
- Puka Nacua: Over 73.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
This week’s Same Game Parlay features the strong correlation of a quarterback and his top wide receiver.
We’ll start off with Matthew Stafford to go Over 257.5 passing yards. The veteran is averaging 303.3 passing yards per game and has gone Over this number in each of the first three weeks.
This is a good matchup against a Colts defense that has allowed 7.52 yards per attempt (26th).
I’ll add in Puka Nacua Over 73.5 receiving yards, as the impressive rookie should be able to find soft spots in the Colts’ zone defense with consistency.
Nacua has gone Over this number in two of his three games. In the two Overs, he eclipsed 100 yards, and he was only 1.5 yards short in the one Under.
We’ve seen Calvin Ridley (eight catches for 101 yards) and Nico Collins (seven for 146) shred this Colts defense. I expect Nacua to do the same in this exploitable matchup.
Parlay these two correlated plays for a chance at a (+166) payout.
