I had my best NFL betting result of the year in Week 12, winning almost nine units, including one of the parlays from last week’s selection in this column
Read on for my best bet, longshot, and same-game parlay for Week 13. Check out my X account, @FAmmiranteTFJ, to see my full betting card.
We’ll look for an even better result with my NFL Week 13 parlays.
Best NFL Week 13 Parlay
Frank Ammirante 2023 Betting Record: 177-215 (+9.76 units)
All NFL gameday odds are current as of Friday, Dec. 1, at 11 a.m. ET from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Week 13 Top Parlay (+149)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 Units
- Chargers ML (-245) at Patriots
- Falcons ML (-130) at Jets
The top parlay includes two moneylines on favorites, in which I want to reduce the juice by combining them in a two-leg bet.
I’ll start with the Los Angeles Chargers (4-7) to beat the New England Patriots (2-9). I don’t feel too comfortable laying six points with Los Angeles on the road, but I’m confident that they’ll get the win here.
New England is a tanking team that is just playing out the season and hoping for a better draft pick. Bailey Zappe takes over for Mac Jones at quarterback, but it’s not like this is much of an upgrade.
Zappe threw for only 54 yards on 14 attempts in relief of Jones against the Giants last week.
Look for Justin Herbert and company to do just enough to get a win over this inferior opponent.
I’ll finish it off with the Atlanta Falcons (5-6) to knock off the New York Jets (4-7).
This is strictly a fade of New York’s quarterback Tim Boyle, who is quite literally the worst starter in the NFL right now.
Boyle managed only 179 yards on 38 passes against the Miami Dolphins, leading the Jets to a measly six points on offense.
Atlanta is trying to win the NFC South – currently tied with the Saints – and is fortunate to play an opponent with such poor quarterback play.
Expect the Falcons to have more success in the running game against a tired Jets defense that will likely be on the field too often because of their poor offense.
Target these two moneylines in our NFL bet of the day.
Longshot NFL Week 13 Parlay
Week 13 Longshot Parlay (+755)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.1 Units
- Cardinals ML (+195) at Steelers
- Panthers ML (+190) at Buccaneers
The longshot parlay includes two underdogs to win outright. I have straight bets on each of these teams to cover the spread, so I wanted an additional reward if they can emerge victorious.
I’ll start off with the Arizona Cardinals (2-10), who are better than their current record with Kyler Murray under center.
Yes, they just got blown out by the Los Angeles Rams, but Sean McVay seems to have Arizona’s number. Prior to that game, the Cards had a close loss against the Houston Texans and a win over the Atlanta Falcons.
While the Pittsburgh Steelers looked better on offense following the firing of coordinator Matt Canada, this is still a team that has a -23 point differential.
Pittsburgh is clearly not as good as its 7-4 record, so I’ll take a shot on the Cards to pull off the upset.
- See the full list of NFL Week 13 odds.
I’ll conclude the longshot parlay with the Carolina Panthers to get their second win of the season.
We’ve seen teams respond positively to midseason head coach firings, namely in Las Vegas, where the Raiders have played well since letting go of Josh McDaniels.
It wouldn’t surprise me to see the same in Carolina, with the Panthers taking on a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that has lost six of its last seven.
Perhaps now that Frank Reich is gone, the Panthers will cater their scheme toward Bryce Young‘s strengths.
I’d bet that we see Young’s best game as a pro against a vulnerable Bucs secondary that has been shredded on a weekly basis.
NFL Week 13 Same-Game Parlay
Broncos vs Texans Same-Game Parlay (+325)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.1 Units
- Broncos/Texans: Under 47.5 (-108)
- C.J. Stroud: Under 269.5 Passing Yards (-115)
- Nico Collins: Under 58.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
The Week 13 Same-Game Parlay focuses on the Broncos vs Texans game.
I’ll start with the Under since the number feels too high at 47.5 points. Broncos’ games have combined for fewer than 48 points in six straight.
Denver plays conservatively on offense with a run-heavy approach, utilizing Russell Wilson as the game manager.
The Broncos also have a run-funnel defense which is much tougher vs the pass. Teams have more success on the ground, which slows down the game and results in fewer points.
This is why I’ll also be on C.J. Stroud to go Under 269.5 passing yards. During Denver’s five-game winning streak, it’s held opposing quarterbacks to only 201.6 passing yards per game.
The Broncos have limited both Josh Allen (177 yards) and Patrick Mahomes (241 yards) during that span.
I’ll finish it off with Nico Collins to stay Under 58.5 receiving yards. The Broncos haven’t allowed a single wideout to eclipse this number during their last five games.
Collins is also slated to be matched up with Pat Surtain II, who is one of the elite corners in the NFL.
