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Buccaneers vs Texans Predictions & Best Bets

Last Updated: Nov 2, 2023

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Houston Texans have already just about surpassed expectations for this year by winning three games, but each squad has experienced some adversity of late.

The Bucs have dropped three games in a row after running into some higher-end competition, while the Texans allowed the Carolina Panthers to win their first game of the year.

With each side teetering on the edge between competing in their division and falling out of the race, this should be a great one with plenty of energy, so let’s dig into some odds, predictions, and best bets.

Buccaneers vs Texans Odds

NFL odds used for this Tampa Bay vs Houston preview were found at DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Wednesday, Nov. 1 at 3:30 PM ET.

  • Moneyline: Texans (-135) • Buccaneers (+114)
  • Spread: Texans -2.5 (-112) • Buccaneers +2.5 (-108)
  • Total Points: Over 40 (-110) • Under 40 (-110)
  • Implied Score: Texans 21.25 Buccaneers 18.75

Buccaneers vs Texans Predictions

Score Pick: Buccaneers 17, Texans 16

While the Buccaneers have become underrated after a string of relatively competitive losses with solid teams, the Texans are coming off an ugly loss to perhaps the league’s worst team. Tampa’s worst loss so far was a tight one with the Atlanta Falcons, who also dispatched Houston.

Rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud has mostly been solid but was kept very quiet by Carolina’s defense, which is not an elite unit. The case can be made that the Bucs are close to the best defense he’s faced yet in his young NFL career, and with Tampa’s run defense a particular strength, the Ohio State product will be asked to carry a lot of the load.

Houston’s run defense should be able to neutralize Tampa’s anemic ground game. Still, against a pass defense that generates pressures at a below-average rate and ranks 23rd in success rate, Baker Mayfield could have a productive enough day to get Tampa some winning plays.

Buccaneers vs Texans Best Bets & Props

Buccaneers (+120)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

For our NFL bet of the day, we’ll take the Bucs to pull off a modest upset. Tampa ranks just around or better than the league average in most offensive and defensive DVOA categories, with rushing offense being a significant negative outlier.

Meanwhile, the Texans have slowed down a good bit on offense after a hot start, so the Bucs may not have to score too many points to secure the win here. Mayfield’s experience should shine through, and after a couple of late comebacks have come up just short this year, Tampa will put the finishing touches on a nice road win.

Under 40 (-110)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

Both offenses have the same fatal flaw: an inability to run the football. Houston ranks 30th and 29th in rushing offense DVOA and success rate, while Tampa ranks 31st and dead last in those categories.

A one-dimensional offense is rarely a prolific one, and while the air game is more of a strength for both squads, in neither case is it able to really buoy the entire offense with no help from the ground attack. Both teams are in the top ten in rush defense EPA, so the issue will be even more exacerbated, leading to what could be a very ugly game.

Rachaad White Under 49.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

It’s tough to understand where this line came from, as White hasn’t cleared this number or come particularly close to doing so in over a month. His last 50+ yard rushing game was against the New Orleans Saints on Oct. 1, and he’s been below 40 in each game since.

Overall, he’s been below this number in five of seven games thus far, and with Tampa’s overall ground game showing no signs of life ahead of this matchup with a decent Houston run defense, there’s no reason to expect this game to be the turning point.

Buccaneers vs Texans Same Game Parlay

Buccaneers vs Texans SGP (+380)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 units

  • Buccaneers +3.5 (-146)
  • Under Four Touchdowns (+105)
  • Over 3.5 Field Goals Made (-115)

We’ll build on some of the abovementioned concepts, primarily because this should be a very gritty, hard-fought game.

Even the best drives stand the risk of stalling out and becoming field goals; Tampa has the league’s best defensive red zone percentage, with just 27.27% of opponents’ trips inside the 20 turning into touchdowns, while Houston sits in seventh in the same category.

On the other side of the ball, the Texans find the end zone on just 43.48% of their own red zone drives, good for 26th in the league, and the Bucs are even farther down at 28th. We’ll buy an alternate spread to protect against the Bucs losing by exactly a field goal, but we still want to be sure to invest in their side.

Author

William Schwartz

As a former athlete and lifetime fan, sports have always been a huge part of my life. I've written about them for almost as long as I've been watching and playing them, from a blog I wrote with a friend in middle school, to journalism classes at the University of Michigan, to today. I hope to bring you entertaining coverage, strong analysis, and profitable betting picks on any and all sports, whether it's MLB baseball, college football, European soccer, or anything in between.

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