The Indianapolis Colts have won two in a row and will return home to put their winning streak to the test against a pesky Buccaneers team which has out-performed expectations through 10 games. The Colts have begun to make some strides on offense, but they’ll have a tough test against one of the best defenses in the game.
With some injuries mounting on defense for the road team here, though, can the Colts ride their menacing defense to a big win here in Indy?
Here are our NFL Week 12 best bets for Tampa Bay vs Indianapolis.
Buccaneers vs Colts Odds
NFL odds used for this Tampa Bay vs Indianapolis preview were found at DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Thursday, Nov. 23, at 4 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Colts (-142) • Buccaneers (+120)
- Spread: Colts -2.5 (-115) • Buccaneers +2.5 (-105)
- Total Points: Over 44 (-108) • Under 44 (-112)
- Implied Score: Colts 23.25, Buccaneers 20.75
Buccaneers vs Colts Predictions
Score Pick: Colts 23, Buccaneers 17
The strength of his Buccaneers team lies up front. They’re currently sitting atop the league in EPA per rush and allowing just 3.7 yards per tote. They’ll be up against an ever-improving Colts rushing attack that’s begin to look a little better with every week Jonathan Taylor is in there, but it’s still a team that prefers to pass.
So, easy win for the Buccaneers here, right? Well, it may not be that simple. Key members of this defense like Lavonte David, Jamel Dean and Devin White all missed practice early in the week and may not suit up here. Carlton Davis is also trying to make his way back from a hip injury and has been limited this week, which may put both the front seven and the secondary in peril against Indy.
With that, I do believe the Colts should pull this one out. They’re an above-average team against the pass and a team which gets to the quarterback, which should put them over the edge.
Buccaneers vs Colts Best Bets & Props
Colts (-130)
FanDuel • WAGER: 1 Unit
To put things into perspective, the Buccaneers have done a good job at limiting sacks, ranking inside the top five in football in that category, but they do rank just 17th in pass block win rate according to ESPN and will be up a team inside the top 10 in winning at the line of scrimmage when rushing the passer.
The Colts are sacking the quarterback at nearly an 8% clip, putting them inside the top 10, and they’re also eighth in takeaways per game. I think this will be another tough test for an overachieving Tampa Bay offense, which will put a ton of stress on a defense which may be missing up to four key components both in the secondary and in the box.
Indy is hitting its stride right now, playing shutdown defense in the last two weeks, and while it didn’t have much competition this Bucs offense is due to regress on the road here.
The Colts have played well when expected, going 2-0 against the spread as favorites, and they should continue that trend on Sunday. That makes them our NFL bet of the day.
Under 44.5 (-110)
Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
The Colts offense has been painful to watch in the last couple of weeks against Carolina and New England, and they were across the pond last week which should add an unnecessary level of fatigue and some lack of preparedness here.
I think it’ll be the Indy defense to lead it to victory here, and that’s why I love taking the Under. The Buccaneers are just 28th in success rate per dropback, which should make for easy pickings. The Colts have boasted one of the best secondaries around for years and Baker Mayfield simply hasn’t been that great, ranking 14th in completion percentage over expected.
Anticipate a slow, defensive battle here which a healthier Indy group will win.
Buccaneers vs Colts Same-Game Parlay
Buccaneers vs Colts SGP (+485)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 Units
- Colts (-140)
- Under 44 (-112)
- Buccaneers to lose a fumble (+120)
I’d prefer to just short both offenses a bit more with Unders on touchdowns, but there is nothing that’s going to be too lucrative in increasing the odds on a parlay centered around the Colts and the Under. On top of that, I’m not particularly infatuated with either kicker and the pricing on field goals or kicking points aren’t all that great.
So, I’ll choose to get rather specific with my prediction on how the Colts will fare against this Bucs offense.
Mayfield has lost a fumble in each of his last two games, and as noted above while this line hasn’t allowed many sacks it doesn’t mean it hasn’t allowed free rushers judging by the win rate stats.
Indy will get to the quarterback, and for a team averaging 1.6 takeaways per game – one of the best numbers in the game – I do think they’ll force the ball out a couple of times, perhaps against Mayfield in the pocket, to get a turnover.
