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Bills vs Eagles Predictions & Best Bets

Last Updated: Nov 21, 2023

The Buffalo Bills got their vengeance on the New York Jets, and they did it in style with a 32-6 win, while the Philadelphia Eagles were also out for retribution, as they avenged their Super Bowl LVII loss to the Kansas City Chiefs with a 21-17 Monday Night win.

The Eagles need to stack every win they can amid a challenging spurt of games, while the Bills are hanging on by a thread in a crowded AFC playoff field, so this win would be a valuable one for both squads.

With two of the league’s most potentially-explosive offenses squaring off, you never know just what’s going to happen, but let’s take a look at the odds and make some predictions for this fascinating cross-conference clash.

Bills vs Eagles Odds

NFL odds used for this Buffalo vs Philadelphia preview were found at DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Tuesday, Nov. 21, at 10:30 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Eagles (-185) • Bills (+154)
  • Spread: Eagles -3.5 (-110) • Bills +3.5 (-110)
  • Total Points: Over 48.5 (-110) • Under 48.5 (-110)
  • Implied Score: Eagles 26, Bills 22.5

Bills vs Eagles Predictions

Score Pick: Eagles 25, Bills 18

Once again, the Eagles are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL, sport one of the league’s best offensive lines, and for the second year in a row, are off to a 9-1 start through 10 games. Unshockingly, they’ve done it with a talented defense, and a steady rushing offense, one of the league’s five or so best by most metrics.

Meanwhile, things are a bit less rosy for the Buffalo Bills. Their defense has struggled mightily of late, as they’ve dealt with injuries, and while they held the Jets to six points in a convincing win, that performance probably made them look better than they are.

The Jets are just about the league’s worst offense by DVOA and EPA, and they even finally benched quarterback Zach Wilson amid the losing effort.

The Bills are hovering around .500 for a reason; they’re a talented team, but have some serious flaws. In addition to the defensive injuries, Josh Allen’s tendency to turn the ball over when put under pressure is a big one, and the Eagles are more than able to do just that without sending the blitz by virtue of a talented defensive line led by stud rookie Jalen Carter.

Philly should be able to pull this one out in front of a raucous home crowd, leaving the Bills with more questions about their ceiling this season.

Bills vs Eagles Best Bets & Props

Eagles -3.5 (-110)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

Without a doubt, this is going to be the NFL bet of the day for this matchup. Of Philly’s nine wins so far, eight covered this number, and the ninth was by exactly three. You don’t want to be in the habit of being on the wrong side of half-point hooks on key numbers, but the Eagles should win by more than this against a Bills team that is floundering.

They should be able to run the ball effectively against a Buffalo defense missing key middle linebacker Matt Milano, who was recently ruled out for the season. Tyrel Dodson has been great, but this run-stopping unit won’t be the same without its leader, and the Eagles’ ground game led by a resurgent D’Andre Swift should be able to assert itself and allow the team to take control in this one.

Under 48 (-110)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

The Buffalo offense scored a total of 40 points across its matchups with the Bengals and Broncos, teams with much less talented defenses than Philly, a unit coming off of a domination of the Chiefs in which it shut out the transcendent Patrick Mahomes across the entire second half.

I’m not quite as bullish on this bet as the last, as the number is placed a bit more appropriately, but if there’s a side, it’s definitely this one. The Eagles are between that Super Bowl rematch with the Chiefs, and a huge clash with the 49ers that could define NFC seeding, so even if they pull away a bit, it would be surprising to see them run up the score.

A slightly lightened workload for banged-up stars like Jalen Hurts could be extremely valuable as they navigate an incredibly challenging portion of their schedule.

Shortest Touchdown Under 1.5 Yards (-145)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

With relatively juiced odds, this is a pretty safe wager when it comes to the Eagles. As the league’s foremost users of the QB sneak, Brotherly Shove, Tush Push, or whatever you want to call it, this team scores from the one yard line routinely and with ease.

Hurts has already rushed for nine touchdowns this season after 13 last year, many of which are from the goal line.

Allen is also an extremely imposing force in short spaces at 6-foot-5 and nearly 240 pounds. He’s racked up seven rushing touchdowns so far this season, and many of those are sneaks, as well.

Bills vs Eagles Same Game Parlay

Bills vs Eagles SGP (+224)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 Units

  • Eagles (-185)
  • Eagles Over 21.5 (-245)
  • Over 2.5 Turnovers (-110)

While the Eagles’ team total over might seem at odds with our Under, that’s more of a handicap on the other half of the game. Offensive success for Philly correlates well with the moneyline and is highly likely.

Its lowest total in a home game so far is 28, and that was against the vaunted Cowboys defense. It has scored over 30 in every other home outing this season.

We’ll select the Eagles moneyline rather than their spread, to mitigate our risk a bit. They should certainly win this one, as the Bills are due for some offensive growing pains after the firing of offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey and the subsequent transition to interim Joe Brady.

Lastly, we’ll play the Over on 2.5 turnovers. We’ve already discussed Allen’s interception problem against great pass rushes, leading to his league-leading total of 12 picks, and the Bills themselves are second in the NFL with 19 takeaways thus far.

Author

William Schwartz

As a former athlete and lifetime fan, sports have always been a huge part of my life. I've written about them for almost as long as I've been watching and playing them, from a blog I wrote with a friend in middle school, to journalism classes at the University of Michigan, to today. I hope to bring you entertaining coverage, strong analysis, and profitable betting picks on any and all sports, whether it's MLB baseball, college football, European soccer, or anything in between.

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