With both teams sitting at 0-3 and in desperate need of a win, the Denver Broncos are heading to iconic Soldier Field for a matchup with the Chicago Bears. Both teams received a lot of praise in the offseason for the moves they made in hopes of overhauling the squad after a brutal 2022, but things haven’t been any better this year for either squad.
Still, barring an unlikely tie, one of these two teams will walk away with their first win and possibly the momentum they need to turn things around.
Broncos vs Bears Odds
NFL odds used for this Denver vs Chicago preview were found at DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of September 26, 2023 at 5 pm ET.
- Moneyline: Broncos (-162) • Bears (+136)
- Spread: Broncos -3 (118) • Bears +3 (-102)
- Total Points: Over 46 (-110) • Under 46 (-110)
- Implied Score: Broncos 25, Bears 22
Broncos vs Bears Predictions
Score Pick: Broncos 32, Bears 25
If there’s one thing we know we can’t trust either of these teams to do, it’s play defense. We’ve all seen the stats, headlines, and highlights, but the Broncos really did allow 70 points to the Miami Dolphins this weekend.
If not for coach Mike McDaniel choosing to kneel the ball on fourth down late in the game, Miami would have set the record for most points in an NFL game, and they came just as close to setting the yardage record as well. Wrap in 35 points allowed to the Washington Commanders, and you have an accurate picture of a defense that can’t stop anyone.
The Bears knew that their defense would be a liability coming into the year, while the offense was expected to be at least competent with some solid incoming talent, but the results on both sides have been brutal. Justin Fields has performed terribly at quarterback in year two under Luke Getsy, whose playcalling and game planning have been utterly inexplicable.
The Bears have allowed over 35 points per game thus far, despite playing only one solid offense, and are deserving home underdogs even against this Broncos squad.
Denver has at least shown flashes of competence on both sides of the ball, as they limited the Raiders to 17 points and hung 33 on the Commanders, so they have to be the pick here in what should be a very interesting, even if not high-level, ball game.
Broncos vs Bears Best Bets & Props
Over 46 (-110)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit
This one is absolutely my NFL bet of the day, as both teams have been bad in all phases of the game, but their defensive failures have been genuinely catastrophic, and each offense at least has the theoretical potential to bounce back.
Denver, of course, joined an incredibly narrow club by allowing 70 points in a single game, but the offense has shown signs of life, with rush and pass per-play EPA both right around league average.
It’s been a bit different for the Bears. Fields and many others on the offense are probably playing for their jobs, but the talent on this unit has to shine through eventually. They’ll have a great shot to do so against the Broncos, who have allowed both the worst per-rush and per-pass EPA on defense.
Broncos 1H -2.5 (-118)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit
The Bears have had tremendous issues in terms of game planning and starting strong; their offense and defense have both looked entirely unprepared to open games this season, especially in the last two outings against the Buccaneers and Chiefs.
Conversely, the Broncos went into the locker room with halftime leads in their first two games, which ended up being narrow losses to the Raiders and Commanders, teams of a relatively similar caliber to the Bears. The late-game collapses are a real issue that Sean Payton will need to dive into, but he should be able to approach this game effectively enough to come out firing against a hapless Bears defense and build a quick lead.
Bears Longest Touchdown (+100)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 units
This is an interesting prop and a rare place where we can back the Bears. For all of their flaws, Chicago definitely has some quick-strike options. DJ Moore can take it to the house at any time, Darnell Mooney is mostly useful for downfield applications, and even Fields can break off a long run, not to mention the fact that throwing the deep ball is probably his greatest offensive strength.
PFF considers Fields a top-5 passer on throws more than 20 yards downfield.
Going up against a Broncos defense that may be missing star safety Justin Simmons and has allowed no shortage of long touchdowns over the past couple of weeks, expect the Bears to hit from distance at some point in this matchup.
Broncos vs Bears Same Game Parlay
Broncos vs Bears SGP (+274)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 units
- Bears Over 21.5 (-105)
- Broncos Over 24.5 (+102)
This one builds off the central concept for this game that we’ve already discussed: total defensive breakdown. Betting the over shows a level of confidence that there will be points in this one, but this parlay increases your payout based on the belief that both teams will contribute to that number.
There’s no reason to believe that either defense has the ability to stop the other. PFF actually has Russell Wilson as a top-10 qualifying passer. The Bears’ diverse stable of skill weapons could have a chance to break out, as the Broncos don’t really have a front seven to exploit a poor Chicago offensive line.
