Best Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl Betting Props

Patrick Mahomes will face the San Francisco 49ers with the Lombardi Trophy on the line for the second time in his career in Super Bowl 58. He won the first of his two Super Bowl MVP awards in the first meeting four years ago.

Mahomes, who was working with Tyreek Hill in 2020, passed for 286 yards and two touchdowns and rushed for another TD in Super Bowl 54 against the 49ers. While he has a very good chance of earning his third Super Bowl title in his sixth season as a starter, I am not projecting him to post outstanding passing totals.

All Super Bowl 58 odds used in these props are current as of Feb. 10, 2024, at 12 p.m., ET.

Patrick Mahomes Prop Pick of the Day

Best Patrick Mahomes Betting Props

Patrick Mahomes: Under 259.5 Passing Yards (-115)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

These are not the same explosive Chiefs of recent past years on offense, Mahomes has failed to get past the projected passing yardage total in four of his past five games. In the one game where he did manage to break past the total, Mahomes finished with 262 passing yards.

Jared Goff passed for 273 yards vs the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game, but in the previous four games that mattered for the 49ers, no other opposing QB finished with more than 252 yards. Mahomes averaged a career-low 261.4 passing yards per game during the regular season, and I am not projecting this game to be as much of a shootout as the Detroit-San Francisco matchup was.

Patrick Mahomes: Under 1.5 TD Passes (+105)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

I recommended this same wager last week and those who followed were able to strut to the virtual pay window with it. Mahomes has not passed for more than one TD in a game in six of his last eight outings.

While Kansas City has rediscovered championship form during the postseason, it has not done with regular offensive heroics from Mahomes. The Chiefs have totaled seven offensive TDs in the playoffs, and three of them have been offensive rushing scores by Isiah Pacheco.

In their last four games that have mattered, the 49ers have allowed seven TD passes, so it’s obvious their defense won’t surrender major passing TD totals. The Lions rolled up 31 points against the 49ers, rushing for three TDs in the process, and Kansas City might rely on Pacheco more near the goal line.

Patrick Mahomes: Under 25.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1.5 Units

This is a very good wager as evidenced by recent trends, as Mahomes has not rushed for more than 26 yards in seven of his past nine games. Mahomes averaged 24.2 rushing yards per game during the regular season and he has rushed for less than 20 yards in two of three playoff games this season.

San Francisco held Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray to under 50 rushing yards during the regular season, and Jalen Hurts to 20. Mahomes is not going to break off any sizable runs against the tenacious 49ers linebackers.