College Football Week 7 Upset Predictions & Picks | Biggest Upsets for Week 7

Last Updated: Oct 14, 2021

Well, last week was ugly. There’s no reason to sugarcoat it.

While we’ve pegged upsets somewhat regularly over the past month, we were shutout in Week 6. The one that hurt most was unquestionably Texas, which coughed up an enormous lead to rival Oklahoma and its backup QB. Those are the kind of moneyline losses that will sting a while.

With no shortage of intriguing games and point spreads to pick from, Week 7 is ripe with choices when it comes to upsets.

While last week was a swing and a miss, we’re operating with a clean slate and plenty of options. Let the upset hunting continue.

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CFB Week 7 Upset Predictions

Indiana (+4.5) vs. No. 10 Michigan State

Indiana fans, I am sorry. No, really, I am.

When I look at your schedule up to this point, I genuinely feel somewhat bad. The Hoosiers have played Iowa, Cincinnati, and Penn State, three programs currently ranked inside the top 10 of the AP Poll. Oh, and two of those games were on the road.

It has been tough sledding, and it doesn’t get much easier with yet another top 10 team.

Michigan State is unquestionably powered by running back Kenneth Walker III, who leads the nation in rushing. And for all the bad things we said about Indiana’s schedule, we can say the opposite about Michigan State’s trip so far.

That’s not to say that the Spartans can’t play; I simply expect Indiana, which has been plagued by turnovers and mistakes, to finally have a clean game.

It won’t be pretty or easy, but it will be a win.

Prediction: Indiana 24, Michigan State 21

Indiana +2.5 First Half (+105) at DraftKings

Wager: 1 Unit

The formula should be familiar. Indiana needs to do what it did against Cincinnati in the first half, where it established a 14-0 lead. This team has talent, and it was on display before the turnovers became an issue.

I expect Indiana to play one of its cleanest halves of the year and enter the intermission ahead.

Indiana Moneyline (+160) at DraftKings

Wager: 1 Unit

While Walker is a star, Indiana can still be competitive in this game if he tallies 100 yards. The key is mustering up enough offense, something that has become a challenge of late.

There’s good value here, especially at home. While the public will jump on the other side, Indiana pulls off the latest upset over an unbeaten.

Tennessee (+2.5) vs. No. 13 Ole Miss

The scoreboard operator will be busy.

Before we dive into the outcome of the game, we can’t help but bask in the glory of the possibilities. Ole Miss and Tennessee have a Points Total of 82, a staggering figure that might not be topped all season.

Given the offensive output for both teams of late, it might be right. Lane Kiffin has Ole Miss bulldozing defenses, thanks largely to the play of QB Matt Corral.

Joshua Heupel, while perhaps a little shaky early, has Tennessee playing extremely fast, as he usually does. After an early loss to Pitt, which doesn’t look too shabby these days, the Vols have really hit their stride.

This is not a point spread I expected to see a month ago, although it’s one I will gladly embrace right now. Ole Miss heads on the road for only the second time this year, and the Rebels come away with a loss.

Prediction: Tennessee 48, Ole Miss 41

Tennessee Over 40.5 Points (-105) at DraftKings

Wager: 1 Unit

The Vols have scored 107 points in the past two games. Granted, the competition is getting much better, although the offense will still have ample opportunities to score.

If you haven’t seen this offense operate, don’t blink.

Tennessee Moneyline (+120) at DraftKings

Wager: 1 Unit

The fact that this is only +120 says a lot about how evenly these two teams are matched, and I am perfectly fine with that. The point spread has come down all week, and Tennessee is certainly getting plenty of convincing action.

Whether my action is convincing or not, I’m right there. Vols in a thriller.

Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee Volunteers

Hendon Hooker and the Tennessee Volunteers are expected to be in an offensive shootout in Week 7 as the host the Ole Miss Rebels. (Image: USA TODAY Sports)

Auburn (+5.5) at No. 17 Arkansas

In the past two weeks, both teams have seen what it’s like to play Georgia.

Spoiler Alert: Neither team is likely in any rush to repeat that experience.

Arkansas comes into this game having lost two very different football games in a row. The first, the loss to the Bulldogs, didn’t have much life. Last weekend, Arkansas nearly pulled off the upset against Ole Miss, although a two-point conversion that would have won the game ultimately was unsuccessful as the game was ending.

Auburn put up a valiant effort against Georgia, at least at first. But QB Bo Nix was unable to do much against the Bulldogs last week, and the Tigers fell well short of the two-touchdown spread.

Amid a brutal stretch of games, Auburn should be live here. While no one will confuse their defense with Georgia’s, the Tigers are allowing less than 20 points per game and have the nation’s No. 26 ranked scoring defense.

That will certainly be a factor in a game that should still feature plenty of points. Arkansas plays in another thriller, and the outcome is once again the same.

Prediction: Auburn 34, Arkansas 30

Over 27 First Half Points (-115) at DraftKings

Wager: 1 Unit

There will likely be more action than expected.

Let’s not mistake this for Ole Miss-Tennessee; it certainly won’t be that. But it will feature enough scoring to get us over this first-half number.

Auburn Moneyline (+165) at DraftKings

Wager: 1 Unit

I like the way the Tigers play. While results have varied on the young season, this group has managed to stay competitive in close games. That theme continues with a really good win over a fun, solid Arkansas team.

Thank you for reading our CFB Week 7 Upset Predictions! For more college football analysis, check out our CFB Week 7 Best Bets!


Adam Kramer

Adam Kramer is an NFL, college football, and gambling analyst for The Game Day. While college football has long been his calling, he’s also covered sports such as boxing, horse racing, and baseball at The Game Day and in other places. He’s also written for Bleacher Report, VSiN, and various other outlets over the past decade-plus.

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