After an exciting Week 6 where I correctly picked Akron to win outright as a (+520) moneyline underdog, I have four games that I like in Week 7. With about half of the regular season completed, it is becoming tougher to find good bets in college football.
There is more data coming in on all 130 FBS programs, and as a result, the lines are becoming sharper. However, that happens every year, and there is still value to be found.
Below, I discuss four games that I am betting on.
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CFB Week 6 Predictions
Virginia Tech (3-2) vs Pittsburgh (4-1)
Virginia Tech has played five games this season, but it’s still hard to figure out which team shows up each week. Is it the Hokies team that upset North Carolina in Week 1 when UNC was ranked No. 10 in the Preseason AP Top 25 Poll and lost to Notre Dame by only three points last week? Or is it the VT team that lost to West Virginia and narrowly beat Richmond?
The score of last week’s 32-29 defeat against Notre Dame does not reflect the nature of the game. Virginia Tech finished the fourth quarter ahead 22-21 against the No. 14 ranked team in the country.
With less than four minutes left, the Hokies jumped to a 29-21 lead. Even though ESPN gave VT a 96.1% chance of winning, they still found a way to lose the game.
While Virginia Tech’s head coach Justin Fuente has made some questionable decisions, he has put together a strong defense. The Hokies have allowed only 20.8 points per game this season, which puts them at No. 30 in the FBS.
On the other hand, the Pittsburgh Panthers have put together an explosive offense that is averaging 46.2 points per game — the third-most in the FBS. One week after dropping 52 points on Georgia Tech, they’ll be looking to continue their high-scoring trend against the Hokies.
The Panthers pass-heavy offense is led by dynamic quarterback Kenny Pickett. Unfortunately for Pickett, V-Tech has a strong passing defense. The question is if Pitt, on the road, can come out with a win against a dangerous Virginia Tech team.
Pitt vs Virginia Tech Prediction: Pitt 21, Virginia Tech 24
Best Bet: Virginia Tech Moneyline (+190) at DraftKings (would bet up to +120)
Wager: 1 Unit
Virginia Tech is a hard team to figure out, yet I am puzzled why they would open as 4-point underdogs at home against a questionable Pitt team. The Hokies have a strong defense that should contain Pickett. Even with Fuente calling plays, at (+190) I like Tech this week and would bet them up to (+120).
While taking the points is tempting for a low-scoring game, I do not think that is a good bet. In my opinion, the Hokies either win this game or lose decisively.
Utah State (3-2) at UNLV (0-5)
With a large slate of college football games each weekend, it is tough to notice the best games to bet on. Saturday night’s Mountain West Conference matchup between the Utah State Aggies and the UNLV Rebels is one of the best games to bet on this coming weekend, even if it is not the most compelling game from a non-betting perspective.
Last year both teams finished at the bottom of the conference standings, as UNLV was 0-6 and Utah State was 1-5. This year UNLV is winless again, while Utah State has a winning record.
The Aggies have been boosted this year largely by new head coach Blake Anderson. For years, Anderson had quietly been one of the better head coaches in the country at Arkansas State, where his teams were perennial Sun Belt Conference contenders.
Since joining Utah State, Anderson has installed his explosive offensive led by former Arkansas State quarterback Logan Bonner.
Utah State currently averages 41.2 offensive plays per game which is the ninth-most in the country. UNLV allows 36.8 points per game, which puts them near the bottom of the FBS. When you combine the Aggies aggressive offense with UNLV’s horrid defense, we should expect to see a wildly entertaining game.
The Rebels might be winless, but their last two losses were by only a touchdown against a strong Fresno State team and an undefeated UTSA team. The question for Saturday night is if Utah State can “make it rain” against UNLV by covering as touchdown favorites.
Utah State vs UNLV Prediction: Utah State 45, UNLV 14
Best Bet: Utah State Spread -6.5 (-110) at FanDuel (would bet up to -9.5)
Wager: 2 Units
The Rebels are one of the worst teams in college football, while the Aggies are relatively decent. Utah State beat Washington State outright in Week 1 as 16.5-point underdogs, and Air Force as a 9-point underdog. Their only two losses were against two good teams in Boise State and BYU.
UNLV should lose, and I have faith in Utah State’s explosive offense to make this game a blowout. When FanDuel opened Utah State as a 6.5-point favorite I made a two unit wager, but I suspect that this number will move throughout the week. That is why I would only bet 1.5 units on Utah State at -7 to -8 and only one unit at -8.5 to -9.5.
Utah State’s high-powered offense should have no problem scoring against UNLV’s porous defense this weekend. (Image: USA TODAY Sports)
No. 4 Oklahoma (6-0) vs TCU (3-2)
Outside of last week’s Alabama/Texas A&M game, the Texas/Oklahoma game was the most entertaining and consequential game. Texas took a commanding lead against Oklahoma, and as a result, the Sooners benched struggling quarterback Spencer Rattler in the second quarter.
Rattler was replaced by true freshman Caleb Williams, who went on to torch the Longhorns.
I am usually a skeptical of teams who replace healthy starting quarterbacks with inexperienced freshman. However, Williams may have cemented himself as the starting quarterback as he went 22-36 with 314 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and no interceptions.
As of Monday, Oklahoma has not officially announced their starting quarterback for Saturday’s game. However, I fully expect head coach Lincoln Riley to start Williams against TCU.
While Oklahoma scored 55 points against Texas last week, TCU’s offense has been hot as well. The Horned Frogs average 36.8 points per game, which puts them at No. 14 in the FBS. Last week, Texas Christian laid 52 points on Texas Tech.
In what is likely to be a high-scoring game, it will be interesting to see if Oklahoma can cover as 11.5-point favorites against TCU.
TCU vs Oklahoma Prediction: TCU 35, Oklahoma 45
Best Bet: Over 66 Points (-110) at WynnBET (would bet up to 70 Points)
Wager: 1 Unit
After last week’s games, I was surprised to see the point total for Saturday’s game set at only 66 points. With Oklahoma unleashing the dragon of Caleb Williams against Texas, and TCU having a dynamic offense, we should see a Katy Perry appearance this weekend with all the fireworks in Norman.
The oddsmakers have gotten the spread for the game right as Oklahoma should win, but it may be a let down spot for them after last week’s big win. However, even though the spread is correct, the total has been set too low.
No. 18 Arizona State (5-1) at Utah (3-2)
If you are a night owl, there is a great game at 10:00 p.m. ET on ESPN between Arizona State and Utah. This year, Arizona State has a legitimate chance of making the Rose Bowl and possibly even winning. But first, ASU must beat Utah on the road.
The Sun Devils started the season off with high hopes, and I was skeptical. In 2020’s shortened season they went 2-2, and I was worried that they were overhyped because Herm Edwards is well-known from his time as a head coach with the New York Jets and Kansas City Chiefs. However, Arizona State has lived up to the hype.
While ASU lost to a ranked BYU team as a 3-point favorite, they had a decisive victory against then No. 20 UCLA as a 3-point underdog, and they easily beat a dangerous Stanford team last week. With Edwards being a defensive-minded coach, it is not a surprise that the Sun Devils are stout on that side of the ball.
Utah won’t be a pushover against Arizona State, and accordingly, this game has been set by oddsmakers as close to a tossup. Outside of last week’s USC game, the Utes haven’t really been able to put points on the scoreboard this season.
In my opinion, whoever wins on Saturday night is likely to win a low-scoring game by a touchdown or less.
Arizona State vs Utah Prediction: Arizona State 28, Utah 20
Best Bet: Arizona State -1 (-110) at Caesars (would bet up to -3.5)
Wager: 1 Unit
On the road, Arizona State will have a tough time, but they should win against Utah as they are the better team this year.
I like Arizona State as a 1-point favorite and I would bet them up to -3.5.
