It’s Halloween weekend, and we have another fantastic slate of college football this week, including a couple of historic rivalries.
From 1st half spreads and money lines to team totals, there are many great props to choose among. Below, check out my four favorite CFB props for this weekend.
Note: College football odds are current as of Thursday, Oct. 27, and courtesy of the sportsbooks listed.
CFP Week 9 Prop: Michigan State vs Michigan
Michigan State 1H +11.5 (+112) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Michigan is an over-three-touchdown favorite in a huge rivalry game, and everyone knows Jim Harbaugh will do his best to win this game by as much as possible. But the Wolverines have tended to start slow.
Michigan has allowed inferior opponents to hang around, especially in their last two games. The Wolverines generated 16 points, led by two points at the half, but beat Penn State 41-17. The week before that, they scored 10 points and were tied at the half before beating Indiana 31-10.
Michigan State had a historic season last year but has stuttered to a 1-3 start in Big Ten play this year. They just snapped a four-game losing streak heading into the bye week and have struggled this season, but they’ll be able to keep this game close in the first half.
Michigan will lean on their run-game led by Blake Corum as they have all season long, and it will probably be successful. However, it also will eat away at the clock, and if Michigan State can get a couple of stops, they’ll remain within striking distance heading into the half.
The Wolverines very well may pull away in the second half, but it’s an easy play for me to take the underdog Spartans to keep it within 11 points in the first half, especially at (+112).
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CFP Week 9 Prop: Penn State vs Ohio State
Ohio State Team Total Under 38.5 Points (-130) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Ohio State has an incredible offense, but this is also just the second road game against a ranked opponent in C.J. Stroud‘s career as a Buckeye. The other? A 42-27 loss to Michigan last season.
Penn State hasn’t had a dominant defense this season — they’re fifth in the Big Ten in scoring defense and middle of the pack in most categories — but they will have 100,000 fans making noise behind them in the most anticipated home game on the Nittany Lions schedule.
Ohio State torched a good Iowa defense last week for 54 points, but that doesn’t necessarily tell the whole story. The Buckeyes had a pick-six, forced six turnovers, and benefited from fantastic field position all game long.
This Buckeyes offense hasn’t been remotely tested since Notre Dame in Week 1 and hasn’t played in an environment like this in the last two seasons.
It doesn’t hurt the Nittany Lions are coming off a bye week, so they had an extra week to prep for the Buckeyes’ high-powered offense.
Look for Penn State to control the clock on offense and lean on the home-field advantage in a closer-than-expected game.
CFP Week 9 Prop: Kentucky vs Tennessee
1H Total Points Under 31.5 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Before we go any further, let’s acknowledge that the Tennessee offense is incredible.
They’re arguably the best offense in the country to this point in the season, and Hendon Hooker is as deserving as anyone of the Heisman trophy. But they also haven’t played a defense that is the caliber of Kentucky’s.
There is no love lost between these two rivals, and this feels like a game Kentucky can hang around in. Even against a Tennessee offense that is starting to feel inevitable, at some point, they’ll probably score a long touchdown or two; this Kentucky defense is extremely sound.
Kentucky is second in the SEC in scoring defense, and they’ve been able to keep other high-powered offenses in check this season — including holding both Mississippi State and Ole Miss to season lows.
The Kentucky defense does its job and limits big plays, and with an extra week of prep time, defensive-minded head coach Mark Stoops will be studied on Tennessee’s scheme and have a plan for handling a potent Tennesee offense.
CFP Week 9 Prop: Northwestern vs Iowa
Iowa Team Total Under 24.5 (-102) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Northwestern is one of the weaker teams in the Big Ten, but Iowa is probably the worst offense in the country.
Iowa is scoring just 14 points per game this season and has gone over 24.5 points just twice this season. On the other side, they’ve been held in single digits three times.
Simply put, the Hawkeyes’ offense is a mess. They rank 128th in scoring offense, 127th in yards per game, 126th in explosive play rate, and 108th in EPA per play. In addition, they haven’t scored an offensive touchdown in two weeks. It’s bad.
The quarterback position is up for grabs for the first time in the season. Still, neither potential Iowa starter Spencer Petras nor Alex Padilla has had much success moving this offense across the last two seasons.
Iowa relies on its defense and special teams to score, and even if they score a defensive touchdown, this offense scoring 17 points feels like it will be a challenge on its own.
Northwestern always plays Iowa tough — they’ve won three of the last five matchups and have held Iowa below 21 points in five straight meetings. And the familiarity between these two coaches gives me plenty of confidence in Iowa’s inability to score points against the Northwestern defense.
