Week 8 of the CFB season is finally here. With October almost over, we are in the thick of the College Football season.
From 1st half spreads and moneylines to team totals, there are many great props to choose among. Below, check out my five favorite CFB props for this weekend.
Note: College football odds are current as of Thursday, Oct. 20, and courtesy of the sportsbooks listed.
Akron vs Kent State Prop
Akron Team Total Over 24.5 Points (+100) at Betway Sportsbook
WAGER: 1.5 Units
Kent State at home is a nearly three-touchdown favorite in an uninteresting Saturday afternoon MAC conference game. Even though the game itself is somewhat inconsequential, betting-wise, it’s an intriguing game.
Kent State is clearly the better team, but they have struggled against conference opponents this season. They lost to Miami (Ohio) by three points, Toledo by 21 points, and needed overtime to beat Ohio.
Akron is winless in conference play, but they have been competitive in games as heavy underdogs.
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The spread is worth a look, but I like Akron to score Over 24.5 points even more. The Zips should be down most of the game, and as we have seen this season, their offense has gotten more aggressive under quarterback D.J. Irons.
I like the Akron Over 24.5 team total, but I am going to wait to see if any sportsbooks offer a better number closer to game time.
Iowa vs Ohio State Prop
Ohio State Team Total Under 38.5 Points (-120) at FanDuel
WAGER: 1.5 Units
I am not going to argue that Iowa will win, but Ohio State is too large of a favorite this weekend against a stingy Iowa defense. What is an even better betting angle for supporting this viewpoint?
Betting on Ohio State to score fewer than 38.5 points.
Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud doesn’t need an introduction, as he is one of the best quarterbacks in the country. What makes me bullish about the Hawkeyes holding the Buckeyes to fewer than 38.5 points is that the Hawkeyes allow only 11.2 points per game, which is the third-best in the country.
Iowa held Illinois to only nine points, Rutgers and Iowa State to only 10, and most impressively held a strong Michigan offense to only 27 points. If you have a stomach for Unders, I encourage you to join me in betting on Ohio State to go Under on their team total of 38.5 points.
UNLV vs Notre Dame Prop
Notre Dame 1st Half -13.5 (-142) at FanDuel
WAGER: .5 Units
Before looking at handicapping the UNLV vs Notre Dame game, bettors must figure out which is the better bet if they like Notre Dame in the first half: Notre Dame at -13.5 (-142) or Notre Dame at -14.5 (-110).
Most bettors and even some betting calculators will point to the -14.5 but based on my own analysis, the -13.5 with juice is the better bet.
Of first halves, 7.8% of them are decided by exactly 14 points. Buying that extra point for 32 cents is worth it because if ND wins the first half by only 14 points, you get a win rather than a loss.
The Fighting Irish have regressed this season, but UNLV is one of the worst FBS teams. Against decent conference opponents in their last two games, they lost by 33 and 35 points, respectively.
Notre Dame should cover their 1st Half spread at -13.5, and I would bet them up to -14 (-110) or -13.5 (-140).
Northwestern vs Maryland Prop
Northwestern 1st Half +7.5 (-110) at FanDuel
WAGER: 1 Unit
Northwestern is one of the weaker Big Ten teams, but their first-half spread has two things going for them. The most important key number for first-half spreads is seven, and Maryland quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa is questionable for this weekend.
Tagovailoa is the only reason why the Terps are relevant this season. As a dual-threat quarterback, he has led Maryland to wins over Indiana, SMU, and Michigan State, and narrow losses to Michigan and Purdue.
Without Tagovailoa, Maryland might lose even to Northwestern. The reason why I like their first-half +7.5 spread so much is that 11% of first halves are decided by exactly seven points. The Wildcats should either win the first half or be losing by a touchdown or less, and that is why the first-half spread is my favorite angle.
Boise State vs Air Force Prop
Boise State 1st Half Moneyline +120 at Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 2 Units
There are two reasons to back Boise State in the first half this weekend. All Air Force does is run, and Boise State has a strong run defense. The other reason is that the Broncos’ 1st-half moneyline (+120) is a great value compared to the +1.5 (-110) spread.
Only 2.9% of first halves are decided by exactly one point. For an extra 2.9% chance of winning your bet, going from +120 to -110 isn’t worth it. With 6.6% of first halves ending in a tie, 1st half moneylines will always have a high chance of pushing.
The reason why Boise State should do well against Air Force is because of their run defense which allows only 101.3 yards per game. In their last game against Fresno State, BSU held Fresno State to only 99 rushing yards on 35 carries.
I like Boise State to win the first half, and I would take their moneyline up to +100.
