It’s Week 6 of the NCAAF season, and that means that we have plenty of prop-betting opportunities.
From first halves to alt spreads, there are many great props to choose from. Below I go over my favorite CFB best bets for props and my top angles to attack for the Week 6 college football slate.
Note: College football odds are current as of Friday, Oct. 7, and courtesy of the sportsbooks listed.
Buffalo vs Bowling Green Prop
Buffalo -6.5 (+175) at Betway Sportsbook
WAGER: 1.5 Units
Bowling Green is one of the worst teams in college football. Last week, BGSU was a 9.5-point favorite against another of the worst teams in the country (Akron) and they only won 31-28.
Buffalo isn’t that great of a team, but they are good enough to win by at least a touchdown against the Falcons.
The Bulls might have had an embarrassing loss against Holy Cross last month, but they lost by only 12 points against a dangerous Coastal Carolina team, and they’ve won both of their games against MAC opponents Eastern Michigan (50-31) and Miami Ohio (24-20).
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Defensively, Buffalo’s weakness is against the run, but their strength is against the pass. Luckily, Bowling Green has a pass-heavy offense that throws on 55.7% of offensive plays. If the Bulls can shut down BGSU through the air, they should easily win.
The alt spread of -6.5 (+175) is a good bet, and I would take it up to (+150).
Liberty vs UMass Props
Liberty Exact Margin of Victory 1-6 Points (+1300) at Betway
Liberty Exact Margin of Victory 7-12 Points (+850) at Betway
WAGER: .75 Units Each
UMass is one of the worst teams in the country, but they impressed me last weekend. Even though they lost 13-20 against Eastern Michigan, they managed to easily cover and almost win as three-touchdown underdogs.
At halftime, the Minutemen were up 10-0. How did the betting markets react to this one game? They set UMass — at home — as a +24.5-point favorite, despite a point total of just 47.
As an FBS independent, Liberty sets its own schedule and mainly plays cupcakes. Despite the lackluster competition, the Flames have had a few narrow victories.
They beat Akron by only nine points, despite being favored by 26. Against Southern Miss, the Flames won by only two points.
If UMass can keep Liberty off the scoring board, then they should lose by less than two touchdowns. The best way to bet on this angle — besides the +24.5 spread — is to back Liberty to win by exact margins of 1-6 and 7-12 points.
Wisconsin vs Northwestern Prop
Wisconsin 1st Half Spread -6.5 (-105) at BetMGM Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
After an abysmal start to the season, Wisconsin fired head coach Paul Chryst. The Badgers have lost to Illinois (10-34), Ohio State (21-52), and Washington State (14-17).
Now is the first time to buy low and sell high on the Badgers.
After starting the season with an upset against Nebraska, Northwestern has lost every game. This includes embarrassing upsets at home against Duke, Southern Illinois, and Miami Ohio.
Wisconsin is a low-scoring, defensive-minded team, which makes me wary of their full-game spread of -10. Instead, I like them to cover the first-half spread of -6.5, as seven is the most common margin of victory for first-half spreads.
If Wisconsin stays at -6.5 for the first half, I would bet them up to (-115).
Ole Miss vs Vanderbilt Prop
Ole Miss 1st Half Spread -8.5 (-116) at BetRivers Sportsbook
WAGER: 2 Units
The most common margins of victory for the first halves of college football games are three, seven, and 14. The fourth-most common margin of victory is 10, as 7% of first halves result in a team ahead by ten points.
This is worth noting for the Ole Miss/Vanderbilt game, as most books have the Rebels as a 10-point favorite for the first half, while BetRivers has them at -8.5.
The Rebels shouldn’t have trouble against Vanderbilt. Their run offense should eat the Vanderbilt defense alive.
Ole Miss runs on 65.8% of offensive plays, which is the seventh-most in the country. The Commodores allow 4.9 yards per carry, which ranks at No. 103 in the FBS.
Ole Miss should cover the full-game spread of -17, but I like them to cover in the first half even more at -8.5 (-117) because it is right below the key number of 10 for first-half spreads. I would bet them up to -9.5 (-115) on Saturday afternoon.
Air Force vs Utah State Prop
Air Force 1st Half Spread -6.5 (-109) at BetRivers
WAGER: 1 Unit
For the same reason as the Ole Miss game, I like the Air Force first half at only -6.5 against Utah State.
Utah State allows 5.3 yards per carry, which is the 14th-worst mark in the FBS and second-worst in the Mountain West. Meanwhile, Air Force runs on 86.8% of their offensive plays, which is the most of any team in the FBS.
If all Air Force does is run, and Utah State can’t stop the run, why shouldn’t Air Force cover a -6.5 first-half spread?
If the Falcons’ spread stays below seven points, I recommend a bet up to -6.5 (-118).
