The last week of the CFB regular season is here. While it is bittersweet that the season is coming to an end, the CFB props are endless like the dry turkey on a Thanksgiving plate.
From alternate spreads, first-half spreads, and team totals, the betting selections are like the number pi and apple pie: never-ending.
Below, check out my four favorite CFB props for this weekend.
Note: College football odds are current as of Wednesday, Nov. 23, and courtesy of the sportsbooks listed.
CFP Week 13 Prop: Ohio State vs Michigan
Ohio State -13.5 (+155) at BetRivers Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Both Ohio State and Michigan are National Championship odds contenders, and both teams play each other this weekend. Not only that, both the Buckeyes and the Wolverines are undefeated.
The loser of this game is probably making the CFP, but the winner is likely to be a co-favorite.
Regardless, if Ohio State wins this game by a large margin, there is a chance that they can jump Georgia in the final CFP rankings. That is why I am taking their alt line of -13.5 (+155) at BetRivers.
Both Ohio State and Michigan are unforgiving to teams when they are winning. They lead the country in average margin of victory as both teams win by about four touchdowns.
Whoever wins Saturday is likely to win by a large margin, and I think OSU is the best bet to come away with a victory.
The Buckeyes have impressive wins against Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Penn State. The only team Michigan has beaten of note by a wide margin is Penn State.
Last week against Illinois, Michigan needed a field goal in the final minute to win 19-17 as a 17-point favorite.
I could be wrong and Michigan could win by 14-plus points, but I am convinced that Ohio State, led by C.J. Stroud, the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy, will avenge their loss in last year’s rivalry game.
Keep track of the latest CFB gameday lines while you choose your best college football bets:
CFP Week 13 Prop: Nebraska vs Iowa
Either Team by 7 or Less (+220) at PointsBet Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
In this week’s Week 13 CFB Best Bets, article I am all over Nebraska covering a +10.5-point spread in what should be a low-scoring game. It should be no surprise that I also like either team to win by seven or fewer points at +220.
My theory on the game is that Iowa is a strong defensive team that can’t score to save itself and that Nebraska is a weak offensive team that has been in some close low-scoring games lately. The Hawkeyes allow only 14.6 points per game, and all but one of their games this year had 46 or fewer combined points scored.
In fact, in six out of 11 Iowa games, fewer than 30 combined points were scored.
Nebraska may be an atrocious 3-8 this season, but they had some close losses. Last week, they lost to Wisconsin by only one point. Two weeks before, they lost to Minnesota, 20-13.
This is why I like either team to win by seven points or less because low-scoring games tend to have smaller margins of victory.
With Nebraska playing better lately and Iowa having a strong defense and a conservative offense, I would bet this prop up to +185.
CFP Week 13 Prop: Coastal Carolina vs James Madison
Coastal Carolina 1H +7.5 (-115) at Betway Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
The most common margin of victory in college football first halves is seven. Of all CFB games, 11% of first halves are decided by exactly seven points.
That is why all season I have been on the lookout for +7.5 or -6.5 first-half spreads. I like the regular full-game spread of Coastal Carolina +13.5, but the first-half spread of +7.5 (-115) is even better.
At the top of the Sun Belt Group A Divisional standings are Coastal Carolina and James Madison. The winner of this game will play either Troy or South Alabama in the Conference Championship next week.
Despite a 9-1 regular season record, CCU is a huge underdog against JMU. Both teams are similar offensively as they both rank in the top 25 in the country in rushing play percentage.
The difference is that James Madison has the best rushing defense in the country and Coastal Carolina is only OK on that front.
James Madison at home certainly has a slight edge in Saturday’s game, but I would be surprised if they win the first half or even the game by two or more scores.
CFP Week 13 Prop: Georgia State vs Marshall
Marshall 1H -3 (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 1.5 Units
Even though seven is an important number for first-half spreads, three is an important number, as well. Caesars has Marshall as a three-point first-half favorite, while most other books have them at -3.5.
This is a good matchup for Marshall at home against a strong Georgia State team.
The Panthers have a rushing play percentage of 64.2%, the sixth-highest in the country. The only teams to run on more offensive plays than Georgia State are the service academies, Minnesota, and Connecticut.
Unfortunately for Georgia State, Marshall allows only 3.3 yards per carry, which is the 11th best in the country. That is why Marshall should cover in the first half and probably for the full-game spread, as well.
If Marshall stays at -3, I recommend a 1.5-unit bet. Otherwise, I would bet their first-half spread up to -4 for only .5 units.
