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CFB Prop Bets Week 12

Posted: Nov 17, 2022Last updated: Nov 28, 2022

There are only two weeks left of the college football regular season, but the next two weeks are full of great CFB prop betting opportunities

From alternate spreads and totals, to halves, reverse teasers, and team totals, the betting selections continue to be endless.

Below, check out my five favorite CFB props for this weekend.

Note: College football odds are current as of Thursday, Nov. 17, and courtesy of the sportsbooks listed.

CFP Week 12 Prop: Louisiana vs Florida State

Louisiana 1H +14 (-110) at Betway Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

On Saturday at noon, we have a rare late-season non-conference matchup featuring a Power 5 team. Florida State is hosting Louisiana in what should be an exciting game despite FSU being favored by 24-points.

Looking at the Seminoles’ recent game logs, it is easy to see why they are a big favorite. Not only are they nationally ranked, but they beat Syracuse 38-3 on the road last week, Miami (FL) 45-3 on the road the week before, and narrowly lost to Clemson last month.

Louisiana, on the other hand, is a strong team even though they play in the much weaker Sun Belt Conference. They have a strong defense, which should give Florida State difficulties in covering a large spread.

The Ragin Cajuns only allow opposing defenses to only 22.8 points per game, a 56.8% completion percentage, and 3.5 yards per carry.

We should see a low-scoring game where Louisiana covers a +24 spread, but I like the +14 first-half spread even more. In fact, I was even tempted to take Louisiana’s full-game spread in my Week 12 CFB Best Bets article.

Two touchdowns are a lot to cover, and Betway and DraftKings are the only sportsbooks to have Louisiana at +14.

With 14 being the most frequent margin of victory in college football, I urge you to bet on the Ragin’ Cajuns now before their first-half spread is universally +13.5 or worse.


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CFP Week 12 Props: Washington State vs Arizona

Over 69.5 Points (+175) at BetRivers Sportsbook

6-Point Reverse Teaser: Over 69 Points & Houston vs East Carolina Over 73.5 Points (+800) at Tipico Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit Each

Do you like watching lousy defenses with strong offenses? If the answer is yes, you should not only watch the Washington State vs Arizona game, but you should take the alternate Over at 69.5 points (+175).

Arizona allows 38.2 points per game, which is the second-worst among Power 5 teams. They also average 31.2 points per game on offense, which makes their games extra spicy. Altogether, the average Wildcats game has 69.4 points scored, which is right at the alt-total number that I like.

The only worry with taking the Over is that Washington State is a strong defensive team with a conservative offense. I am not worried about Wazzu in this spot as plenty of conservative offenses have played Arizona in high-scoring games.

For my second best bet in this game, I am pairing the alternate Over with the alternate Over in the Houston vs. East Carolina game in a bet that is known as a reverse teaser. Like a regular teaser, a reverse adds points to the spread or total for a bigger payout.

This week, Tipico Sportsbook is available in Colorado and New Jersey and has a promo where they boost two-team six-point reverse teasers to +800. If each leg pays less than +200 at other sportsbooks, it is probably a good leg to put in one of these reverse teasers.

Generally, the best reverse teaser legs are in totals of high-scoring games or on the spreads of heavy underdogs or favorites. Additionally, you want to avoid crossing key numbers when possible.

That is why I do a reverse on a high-scoring game (Washington State vs Arizona) and pair it with another high-scoring game (Houston vs East Carolina). In the next section, I go over why I like the alternate over in that game, as well.

CFP Week 12 Prop: Houston vs East Carolina

Over 72.5 Points (+160) at BetRivers Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

If you don’t want to read my article, just look at Houston’s recent games, and you will understand why I like the alternate Over at 72.5 points (+160) at BetRivers.

Last week against Temple, Houston won, 43-36. The week before against SMU, Houston lost 77-63, and it wasn’t even a college basketball game.

The Cougars are averaging 37.4 points per game, the 13th-highest in the country. They also allow 36.2 points per game, the 11th-worst in the country. A typical Houston game has 73.6 points scored, which is only one point higher than the alt total I like.

ECU has played some strong defenses lately and has exceeded expectations. Last week, they scored 25 points against a Cincinnati defense that allows 22.7 points per game. Last month, they scored 34 points against a UCF team that allows only 21.1 points per game.

The alt-Over should hit in this game, and if reverse teasers aren’t available to you, I would recommend taking it as a single bet.

CFP Week 12 Props: Tennessee vs South Carolina

Tennessee 2H -8.5 (-105) at Betway Sportsbook

WAGER: 2 Units

6-Point Reverse Teaser: Tennessee -27.5 & New Mexico State +23.5 @ Missouri

WAGER: 1 Unit

As a National Championship odds contender, I don’t need to give Tennessee much of an introduction. They are a one-loss SEC team that beat Alabama, whose only loss is to Georgia.

With Tennessee’s two remaining games against South Carolina and Vanderbilt, the only thing that the Vols can do to pad their CFP resume is to run up the score against mediocre teams.

Watching last week’s Tennessee game against Missouri, it was clear to see that the Vols weren’t stepping on the breaks. UT was a 19-point favorite, and they easily covered, winning 66-24.

Teams that aren’t trying to pad their stats usually put in backups in the second half of a blowout and play conservatively. Tennessee didn’t do that last week. They were ahead by only 11 points in the first half but won the second half against Mizzou, 38-7.

Even in the last six minutes of the fourth quarter when Tennessee put their backups in, they managed to score two more touchdowns. That is why I like Tennessee’s second-half spread of only -8.5.

Additionally, I like the idea of using Tennessee -27.5 in the first leg of a reverse teaser with New Mexico State +17.5 against Missouri - a game that I break down below.

CFP Week 12 Prop: New Mexico State vs Missouri

New Mexico State 1H +17.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

WAGER: 1.5 Units

There are 131 FBS teams, and in the Sagarin power ratings that combine FBS and FCS teams, New Mexico State is ranked 166. I don’t even have to tell you that the Aggies are bad, especially if you look at their game logs.

The issue is Missouri isn’t that good either and 17.5 points is a lot to cover in the first half. That’s not to mention 29.5 points is a lot to cover for the whole game.

Just look at how Missouri has done against cupcakes this season.

They beat Louisiana Tech 52-24, but even in that game, Missouri won the first half by only 14 points. They beat Abilene Christian, an FCS team, by only 17 points and won the first half by only 14. Recently, against SEC doormat Vanderbilt, Missouri won by only three points.

I will have to hold my breath with NMSU, but they should cover the first-half spread of +17.5, and they have a plausible chance of covering a +23.5 alt spread for the second half of my late-night reverse teaser with the Tennessee vs South Carolina game.

Author

Kevin Davis

Kevin Davis is a Betting Analyst at The Game Day residing in Hoboken, NJ. Previously a Bronx resident, Kevin got his start betting on sports at his local Bronx barbershop. When sports betting was legalized across the river in Jersey, Kevin was there on the ground floor making regular trips to the Hoboken PATH station or for soup dumplings in Fort Lee. Previously, Kevin has written for The Action Network, and Vegas Insider.

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