We have only two weeks left of regular season football. This means that the bulk of lopsided matchups are ending, but the quality of football will improve for conference championships and bowl games.
For Week 12, we have a full slate of MACtion on Tuesday and Wednesday, and exciting Power Five games Saturday.
Below, read up on my best college football bets.
All college football odds are current as of noon ET on Monday, Nov. 14, at the NCAAF sportsbooks listed.
Kevin Davis’ Record (Tracked by BetStamp App): 71-77-3, -3.8% Return on Investment, +2.8% Closing Line Value
CFB Week 12 Best Bet: TCU vs Baylor
TCU -2.5 (-115) at Betway Sportsbook
WAGER: 1.5 Units
TCU is a 20-1 underdog that is lighting up the CFB National Championship Odds board. They are undefeated with half of their wins coming against ranked teams.
On the road against Baylor, why are the Horned Frogs only 2.5-point favorites?
One reason why is that TCU has arguably been the luckiest FBS team this season. Outside of their 55-24 butt-kicking against Oklahoma, every TCU non-conference win has been by 10 points or less. They even needed two overtimes to beat Oklahoma State by a field goal.
Despite my tendency to bet against lucky teams, as a 2.5-point favorite, they should cover against Baylor.
Last week, the Bears lost to Kansas State, 31-3. Both K-State and TCU are similar because both teams have run-heavy offenses. In most games this season, Baylor has had a hard time stopping the run and that is why TCU should win by about a touchdown.
With TCU south of -3, I would recommend a 1.5 unit bet now. Otherwise, I would only bet a unit on TCU if they are priced between -3 and -4.
CFB Week 12 Best Bet: Ohio vs Ball State
Ohio -3.5 (-110) at BetMGM
WAGER: 1 Unit
Last week, I wrote about Ohio in my best bets column, and they won. This week, I am tapping the Bobcats again as a small road favorite against Ball State.
Ohio is the best MAC team right now, even if other sharps disagree with me.
In Jeff Sagarin’s power rankings, Ohio continues to have the best power ranking in the MAC East, but only the second-best in the conference behind Toledo. Last week, Toledo was ranked higher than Ohio in the Massey-Peabody FBS ratings, but this week, Ohio tops Toledo.
Even with Ohio starting to get more respect, their abilities against mediocre MAC foes continue to be underestimated. Two weeks ago, as a +2.5 home underdog against Buffalo, the Bobcats won, 45-21. Last week, as only a -2 road favorite against Miami (Ohio), Ohio won, 37-21.
What’s crazy about Ohio is that they are 7-3 against the spread this season, and oddsmakers and other bettors have yet to catch up.
At -3.5, Ohio is a great bet, and I would bet them up to -6.5.
CFB Week 12 Best Bets: Connecticut vs Army
Connecticut +10.5 (-110) at BetWay Sportsbook
Connecticut +350 Moneyline at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit Each
Connecticut is a great college basketball school, with not much of a football program. After posting a 4-32 record over the last four years (not counting 2020), what the hell happened this season for them to have a 6-5 record?
This offseason, UConn hired Jim Mora as head coach, and they are noticeably better. Even as an FBS independent that sets its own schedule, the Huskies have won some games as heavy underdogs.
They beat Fresno State 19-14 as a 23-point underdog, Boston College 13-3 as an 8-point underdog, and last week they beat Liberty as a 13.5-point underdog. Connecticut is 9-2 against the spread, and people still don’t get how much better they are this season.
This week against Army, the Huskies are 10.5-point underdogs in a game with a 43.5-point total as of Monday at FanDuel Sportsbook. This is one of the most outrageous spreads this season that not only should UConn cover, but they might even win.
Army has a triple-option offense that has a rushing play percentage of 80.4%. UConn doesn’t have a strong run defense, but they should be fine this weekend.
The Huskies if were to lose, it would likely be by a touchdown or less which is why I would bet their spread up to +7.5 and moneyline up to +250.
CFB Week 12 Best Bet: Western Kentucky vs Auburn
Auburn -5.5 (-108) at BetRivers Sportsbook
WAGER: 2 Units
When Auburn opened as a 7-point home favorite against Western Kentucky, I had to check my eyesight. Then on Monday morning, they dropped to only being favored by 5.5 points, and I dropped my jaw.
I don’t know why the betting markets disagree with me, but I love the Tigers this weekend.
Auburn recently fired their head coach Bryan Harsin, but who cares? An SEC head coach has the same life span as a Kardashian spouse, which isn’t very long. The SEC is so much better than Conference-USA, that any team except for Vanderbilt should beat a typical Conference USA team in a blowout.
In their one game against a power-five opponent this year, Western Kentucky lost to woeful Indiana, 33-30. How are they supposed to hang against a tougher Auburn team?
WKU has a pass-heavy air raid offense that has a passing play percentage of 59.6%, the 12th-highest in the country. Auburn, for all their faults, has a decent passing defense that allows only 6.4 yards per passing attempt, a 58.7% completion percentage, and only 8.4 passing first downs per game.
Auburn should contain Western Kentucky at home, and I would bet them up to -10 on Saturday.
CFB Week 12 Best Bets: Marshall vs Georgia Southern
Under 54.5 Points (-109) at BetRivers Sportsbook
WAGER: 1.5 Units
Marshall -3.5 (-115) at Betway Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Georgia Southern has a one-dimensional offense and Marshall has a great defense. The Thundering Herd should beat the Eagles in a low-scoring game, which is why I like the Marshall spread and the Under.
Last week, I faded Georgia Southern against a strong passing defense in Louisiana, and the 63-point total went Under and Louisiana covered a -3.5 spread when it won, 36-17. I see the same type of game being played on Saturday night.
Georgia Southern has a passing play percentage of 61.6% which is the second-highest in the country. Marshall has probably the best passing defense in the Sun Belt.
The Thundering Herd limit opposing quarterbacks to only a 52.7% completion percentage, which is the fifth-best in the country. This is better than even Cincinnati, TCU, Georgia, Alabama, or LSU. They also allow only 6.2 yards per passing attempt.
Based on the matchup between a pass-heavy team and a strong passing defense, we should see Marshall win by about a touchdown in a low-scoring game.
How To Bet College Football Week 12
Find heavy underdogs that could cover
Certain teams are heavy underdogs after having a rough regular season. Some of these teams are overlooked as they tend to cover spreads in late-season games that are meaningless for both teams.
Continue to back teams that have been overlooked all season
Certain teams like UConn and Ohio have been overlooked by bettors and oddsmakers all season and continue to be overlooked. Look for teams with a good against-the-spread record and figure out if their ATS record is because of luck or because of being better than people realize.