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Sun Bowl Predictions | Oregon State vs Notre Dame

Last Updated: Dec 19, 2023

The college football landscape is changing for everyone, but few teams will be affected more than No. 21 Oregon State, while nobody’s future will be less altered than No. 15 Notre Dame. The Beavers are losing 10 of their 12 conference-mates from the Pac-12, while the perennial Fighting Irish will be fine putting together their schedule as usual.

Both teams’ big-name starting quarterbacks will be missing- Notre Dame’s Sam Hartman has opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft, while DJ Uiagalelei will seek a second transfer.

The Beavers will be highly motivated to cap off a big season before all of the changes, while Notre Dame will likely treat this outing as a tryout for next season, with so many key players opting out.

Read on for Oregon State Beavers vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish college football picks and predictions for this year’s Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl on Friday, Dec. 29, at 2:00 p.m. ET.

Oregon State vs Notre Dame Odds

Track our latest CFB odds for Beavers vs Fighting Irish:

NCAAF lines used for Notre Dame vs. Oregon State were current as of Dec. 18 at 2:15 p.m. ET on DraftKings Sportsbook.

  • Moneyline: Notre Dame (-238) • Oregon State (+195)
  • Spread: Notre Dame -6.5 (-110) • Oregon State +6.5 (-110)
  • Total Points: Over 41.5 (-112) • Under 41.5 (-108)

This game is tough to pin down with all the opt-outs, transfers, injuries, and suspensions, but most shops have the spread set just below a touchdown in favor of Notre Dame. The total is also a bit depressed, with so many key offensive pieces unavailable.

Oregon State vs Notre Dame Prediction

SCORE PICK: Notre Dame 20, Oregon State 16

Let’s quickly peruse some of the key figures on both sides who will be missing beyond just Hartman and Uiagalelei.

For Notre Dame, Hartman’s top three wideouts, headlined by Chris Tyree, are all transferring, as are the team’s two tight ends, Mitchell Evans and Holden Staes.

Also for Notre Dame, stud running back Audric Estime is joining Hartman as a league-bound opt-out, as well as tackle duo Joe Alt and Blake Fisher. Last but not least, star corner Cam Hart is prepping for the NFL.

As for Oregon State, leading receiver Anthony Gould and key tackle Taliese Fuaga are both draft-bound, while the portal is claiming a red-zone menace in tight end Jack Veiling and the team’s top-two tacklers, linebacker Easton Mascarenas-Arnold and safety Akili Arnold.

To top it all off for Oregon State, their top rusher, Damien Martinez, is suspended after a DUI arrest, while head coach Jonathan Smith is now a Michigan State Spartan.

With so much uncertainty on both sides, it’s hard to believe that there’s much definitive separation between these teams, not nearly enough to justify a spread of essentially a touchdown. Motivation should also be on the Beavers’ side, so they should be able to keep this tight.

Oregon State vs Notre Dame Best Bets

Oregon State +6.5 (-110)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

There’s not a good answer to how either side replaces all of the existing production, either in the immediate term for this game, or for next year. Let’s just talk about the biggest one for now- quarterback.

Oregon State has already announced Ben Gulbranson as the starter for the Sun Bowl, providing a bit of stability after he started for most of last year. Meanwhile, Notre Dame hasn’t officially indicated their QB for this game, but little-used backup Steve Angeli should get the call.

Arguably, Notre Dame is losing more on both sides of the ball, highlighted by Hartman, Alt, Hart, and Estime. With little reason to get excited about this game, compared to Oregon State’s desire to cap off their final Pac-12 season with a second-consecutive bowl win, there’s no reason to believe they’ll pull away in this one.

Under 41.5 (-108)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

This one’s pretty straightforward; with both quarterbacks, most of the top receivers on both sides, and both hyper-productive top rushers missing, as well as offensive guru Smith on the Oregon State side and offensive coordinator Gerad Parker for Notre Dame, betting on points would be a fool’s errand.

Even before all of the opt-outs, the argument always existed for this to be a defensive matchup.

Notre Dame’s defense is fourth in the country in EPA per play, the best figure outside of the Big Ten’s unbreakable trio of Penn State, Michigan, and Iowa. Oregon State isn’t quite up there, but their number has been deflated by playing in a phenomenal Pac-12, and they’d provide a greater test than most of Notre Dame’s opponents to this point.

Oregon State vs Notre Dame Same-Game Parlay

Oregon State vs Notre Dame SGP (+168)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

  • Notre Dame (-238)
  • Under 41.5 (-108)

This game isn’t for another week, so we don’t have too many same game parlay options. We’ll keep things straightforward, with the relatively safe pick of Notre Dame on the moneyline.

To boost the odds, we’ll pair it with the under in a game largely devoid of experience and firepower on the offensive side after transfers, opt-outs, and more took their toll.

Author

William Schwartz

As a former athlete and lifetime fan, sports have always been a huge part of my life. I've written about them for almost as long as I've been watching and playing them, from a blog I wrote with a friend in middle school, to journalism classes at the University of Michigan, to today. I hope to bring you entertaining coverage, strong analysis, and profitable betting picks on any and all sports, whether it's MLB baseball, college football, European soccer, or anything in between.

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