Has there ever been a more narrative-driven bowl in the past decade of the current postseason format? No team has ever felt more snubbed from the playoff than No. 5 Florida State, the undefeated ACC Champion, although No. 6 Georgia, a two-time defending champion who just lost for the first time in 30 games, also feels shortchanged.
Neither of these teams have a chance to be the CFP National Champion, but will that stop either one from claiming a title after a win in Miami? And whose stars will be on display?
With the threat of opt-outs looming in the transfer portal era, Georgia quarterback Carson Beck has opted in, so we’ll have to see who follows suit.
With both teams fired up to prove that their placement in this bowl was a total mistake, this should be a fun game, with or without each team’s starting lineup fully intact. Read on for Georgia Bulldogs vs Florida State Seminoles college football picks and predictions for this year’s Capital One Orange Bowl on Saturday, Dec. 30, at 4 p.m. ET.
Georgia vs Florida State Odds
Track our latest CFB odds for Bulldogs vs Seminoles:
NCAAF lines used for Georgia vs Florida State were current as of Tuesday, Dec. 19, at 11:15 a.m. ET on DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Moneyline: Georgia (-675) • Florida State (+490)
- Spread: Georgia -14 (-112) • Florida State +14 (-108)
- Total Points: Over 44.5 (-110) • Under 44.5 (-110)
Motivation could be high for both sides, but there are plenty of opt-outs and transfers, making this game a tough one to figure out. There’s plenty of outgoing talent, much of which is on the offensive side, which might explain the deflated total, although Beck playing for Georgia could make things interesting.
Georgia vs Florida State Prediction
SCORE PICK: Georgia 27, Florida State 10
It’s not often that you see two teams with a combined record of 25-1 in a non-playoff bowl, but here we are. It’s just been that kind of season in college football. Unfortunately, we won’t see what would have been a fascinating battle between these two teams at full strength.
As we all know by now, star Florida State quarterback Jordan Travis is out for the year, the committee’s stated reason for leaving FSU out of the playoff, but the list of absent talent does not end there.
Star FSU pass catchers Johnny Wilson and Jaheim Bell have both opted out, with stud wideout Keon Coleman expected to join the list, while starting running back Trey Benson is also NFL-bound and unavailable. The Seminoles defense, which was so impressive against Louisville, will mostly be ready to go, but it’s widely expected that superstar edge rusher Jared Verse will eventually opt out as he looks to be a top pick in the NFL draft.
On Georgia’s side, there are also going to be some players missing, but the biggest names are unfortunately out with an injury rather than a choice to prepare for the league. As we discussed, Beck has elected to play, but he’ll be missing his top targets, as Ladd McConkey and Brock Bowers were both visibly hampered against Alabama, and it would be shocking to see them put themselves on the line once more.
Incredibly enough, Georgia has probably done a better job keeping it talent in-house and willing to play in this game, even if FSU theoretically has more to gain. This should be a comfortable win for the Bulldogs with Beck at the helm, as well as a significant coaching disparity between Kirby Smart and FSU’s Mike Norvell.
Georgia vs Florida State Best Bets
Georgia -14 (-110)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Often in games where there are heavy opt-outs, it’s best to side with the underdog as there is little to separate the two teams, but this is an exception, due in large part to Beck’s decision to play. FSU will be rolling with an inexperienced backup quarterback against a top-25 defense by EPA per play, while Georgia will be starting one of the nation’s best passers behind a largely-intact and talented o-line.
Not only will Tate Rodemaker be up against a tough defense, he’ll be without pretty much all of the players who served as Travis’s top targets. It’s simply hard to imagine Florida State getting anything going on offense with the players they have left, so we have to back Georgia on the big spread.
Under 44.5 (-108)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
This could have been an Under situation even before all of the opt-outs, or dare I say, even with Travis healthy. We all know that Georgia is a factory for NFL-caliber defensive talent, especially in pass defense, but FSU actually has the higher-ranked defense by EPA per play, at ninth in the country.
Verse will be a big loss, but the rest of the defense is more or less ready to go.
As for Georgia, we can expect some solid play from Beck, but he’ll be missing basically every weapon that made Georgia’s offense tick this season. He can keep the chains moving, but he can only do so much on his own. This isn’t going to be a 40-plus point output for the Bulldogs, and I’d be mildly surprised if it even cracks 30 on their end.
Georgia vs Florida State Same-Game Parlay
Georgia vs Florida State SGP (+118)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
- Georgia (-675)
- Under 44.5 (-110)
With almost two weeks until kickoff, we don’t have all that many options when it comes to building our same game parlay for this game. We’ll pick the ultra-safe option of Georgia’s moneyline, and stick with the Under, a great bet in its own right with Florida State’s offense stripped down to the studs.
