Citrus Bowl Predictions & Odds | LSU vs Purdue

Lance PattonPromotions Creator & Editor
Last Updated: Jan 2, 2023

The losers of the Big Ten and SEC championships will battle when the LSU Tigers meet the Purdue Boilermakers in the Citrus Bowl.

Purdue won its final three games of the regular season to finish the year 8-4, which in a weak Big Ten West was enough to earn a trip to the Big Ten Championship Game.

The Boilermakers were dominated by Michigan, but earning a trip to the conference championship was an impressive feat for a Purdue team.

LSU had an up-and-down year including an opening-week loss to Florida State, an upset win over Alabama, and the upset loss to Texas A&M to close the regular season. The Tigers finished 9-4 (6-2 in the conference) after a 50-30 loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game.

LSU vs Purdue Odds for Citrus Bowl

As of Wednesday, Dec. 14, at Caesars Sportsbook, the Tigers are a 10.5-point favorite against Purdue.

The Over/Under is set at 58.5 total points, which feels low for offenses of this caliber. Especially with Purdue attempting 42.4 passes per game, the sixth most in the nation.

LSU vs Purdue Prediction for Citrus Bowl

LSU 35, Purdue 31

Normally, the SEC and Big Ten runner-up would be a highly-anticipated game in one of the New Year’s Six bowl games, or potentially even the College Football Playoff.

That is not the case here.

Head coach Jeff Brohm has moved on from the Boilermakers, taking the head coaching job at Louisville. Jeff’s younger brother Brian Brohm — the offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach this season — will serve as the interim coach for the Citrus Bowl.

Purdue has had a ton of opt-outs for the NFL Draft including starting quarterback Aiden O’Connell who had a fantastic season. O’Connell threw for 3,490 yards and 22 touchdowns but wasn’t afraid to put the ball in danger, throwing 13 interceptions.

Wide receiver Charlie Jones, who lead the nation in receptions (110) and yards (1,361), also opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft. As did tight end Payne Durham who was second on the team in receptiosn, yards, and touchdowns.

Without those two, it’s going to be tough going for backup Austin Burton who appeared in five games, completing 24/32 passes for 199 yards and three touchdowns this year. Burton is a senior but has functioned mostly as a backup first at UCLA and then behind O’Connell.

Things got off to a rough start with a loss to Florida State in the opening week of Brian Kelly‘s first year, but as usual in college football, winning cures all.

Junior Jayden Daniels emerged as one of the best quarterbacks in the SEC with an impressive season, keeping defenses off guard with his dual-threat abilities. Daniels ran more this year than ever, adding 818 yards and 11 scores with his legs to his solid 16:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Daniels, who will be near the top of the Heisman Trophy odds at the beginning of next season, reaggravated an ankle injury in the SEC Championship Game and will need a week to 10 days to recover, but he is expected to be good to go for the Citrus Bowl.

LSU received good news from Kayshon Boutte, who decided to pass on the draft and return for his senior season. He had a tough junior year, catching just 48 passes for 538 yards and two touchdowns, but he was the No. 5 wide receiver on Mel Kiper’s big board and has game-breaking playmaking ability.

Both teams were middle-of-the-pack defensively in their respective conferences. The Tigers finished sixth in the SEC in passing defense, and their secondary will be challenged by the Purdue air attack.

Purdue has yet to see a quarterback with the dual-threat abilities of Daniels. Without their head coach — even if Brohm mainly focused on the offensive side of the ball — Daniels will undoubtedly cause problems for the Boilermakers defense.

LSU vs Purdue Best Bets for Citrus Bowl

Over 56 Points (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

Purdue’s scheme won’t change much under interim head coach Brian Brohm as he was previously the offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach. The loss of the weapons and starting quarterback, however will be a massive part of this game.

Even so, I think the backup Burton is able to lead this offense down the field with some success against an average LSU defense.

LSU with Daniels is an offense unlike anything Purdue has seen in the Big Ten, and with cornerback Cory Trice headed to the draft. the Tigers will be able to move it up and down the field in a high-scoring Citrus Bowl.

LSU -14 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

This line opened at anywhere from 9.5 to 10.5 points and has moved to 14 following Purdue’s opt-outs.

LSU had dreams of making one of the NY6 bowl games and even if they come out flat, they’ll take over this game with a ton of key pieces from Purdue missing.

The Tigers will want to put a bow on this season and continue to build momentum heading into Year 2 of the Brian Kelly era. They should have no problems doing so, pulling away late in the second half to cover the two-touchdown spread.


Lance Patton

Lance Patton is the Promotions Creator & Editor for The Game Day and also creates content for the NFL, college football, and college basketball. Before joining The Game Day, Lance did freelance work for a variety of sports betting websites as well as covering the Iowa Hawkeyes for FanSided.

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