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Alamo Bowl Predictions & Odds

Posted: Dec 22, 2022Last updated: Jan 2, 2023

The Alamo Bowl might as well be a home game for Texas. San Antonio is only 1 hour and 16 minutes from Austin where Texas plays, but a 32-hour drive from Seattle where Washington is located.

What is interesting when you put the two teams next to each other is that Washington had a 10-2 record and Texas was 8-4. The difference is that the Huskies played only the 50th toughest FBS schedule, while the Longhorns played the third toughest schedule.

With all of these factors, it is not surprising that the Longhorns are a 4-point favorite at Caesars Sportsbook.

Texas’ only losses are against all by a touchdown or less and came against Alabama, Texas Tech, TCU, and Oklahoma State.

Below, I analyze all this and more for my Alamo Bowl best bets.

Texas vs Washington Odds for Alamo Bowl

The line has basically stayed static since it opened at -3.5 Texas and settled at -4 at Caesars Sportsbook. With a point total of 67.5, the Alamo Bowl has the highest point total of any bowl game.

Texas vs Washington Prediction for Alamo Bowl

Texas 49, Washington 38

The elephant or huskie in the room is why Washington is an underdog despite a superior win-loss record. Outside of three of their wins against ranked teams, Washington mainly beat up on weak teams.

Texas didn’t have the luxury of playing Colorado, Arizona, Kent State, or Cal.

Of UT’s 12 opponents, 10 of them are playing in bowl games. They lost to Alabama 20-19 despite being a nearly three-touchdown underdog.

Their other three losses were also close as they lost 17-10 against TCU, who is playing in the college football playoff, 41-34 on the road against Oklahoma State, and 37-34 in overtime against Texas Tech on the road.

If half of those games turned out differently, Texas would be a top-10 team.

The Longhorns beat Oklahoma, 49-0, as well as Big 12 Conference champs Kansas State 34-27 and Kansas 55-14 on the road, and Baylor, 38-27, at home. Texas is the type of team that is capable of winning in blowouts.

The big variance for the Horns is over the impact of the three players that have opted out of the Alamo Bowl.

Running back Bijan Robinson is opting out to prepare for the NFL Draft, and he is the highest-rated running back prospect who is projected by ESPN analyst Mel Kiper Jr. to be drafted eighth overall. Robinson’s backup, Roschon Jonhson, is also opting out, as is linebacker DeMarvion Overshown.

Texas will be hurt with the absence of Robinson, but their offensive line that opened holes for him will be playing.

With the craziness of bowl games, I would not be surprised if Texas wins in a high-scoring blowout.

Texas vs Washington Best Bets for Alamo Bowl

Texas -4 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

Despite missing Robinson, Texas should crush Washington in the Alamo Bowl. Their strength as a team is negated by them playing a tough schedule. Only Alabama and Tennessee played a tough schedule.

Washington got to inflate their record by playing mainly cupcakes and having a couple of close tough wins. Texas should not only win but easily cover the spread, and I would bet them up to -6.5.

Texas -13 & Over 72.5 Points at BetRivers Sportsbook (+700)

Wager: 1 Unit

Looking for a long shot this bowl season? I recommend betting two alt-lines in a same-game parlay, betting Texas -13 and Over 72.5 points.

Bowl games have more variance than regular season games. Historically, the standard deviation on the difference between the final score and spread is larger for bowl games than any week of the regular season, even Week 1.

Based on my theory that Texas will win in a high-scoring blowout, the best way to approach this angle is to either bet Texas -13 or Over 72.5 separately or combine both in a same-game parlay that pays 7-1.

Author

Kevin Davis

Kevin Davis is a Betting Analyst at The Game Day residing in Hoboken, NJ. Previously a Bronx resident, Kevin got his start betting on sports at his local Bronx barbershop. When sports betting was legalized across the river in Jersey, Kevin was there on the ground floor making regular trips to the Hoboken PATH station or for soup dumplings in Fort Lee. Previously, Kevin has written for The Action Network, and Vegas Insider.

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