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Alamo Bowl Predictions | Arizona vs Oklahoma

Last Updated: Dec 19, 2023

We could be getting a taste of the future as No. 14 Arizona takes on No. 12 Oklahoma for a fascinating Alamo Bowl matchup.

Arizona’s breakout freshman quarterback Noah Fifita is on track to play, rather than transferring or opting out, while Oklahoma’s star passer Dillon Gabriel will be on the move, so we’ll get a look at his successor.

The NCAAF odds favor Arizona, but this should be an extremely closely-fought matchup between teams who will be motivated to show their abilities after narrowly missing out on the New Year’s Six, so read on for Arizona Wildcats vs Oklahoma Sooners college football picks and predictions for Thursday, Dec. 28, at 9:15 p.m. ET.

Arizona vs Oklahoma Odds

Track our latest CFB odds for Wildcats vs Sooners:

NCAAF lines used for Arizona vs. Oklahoma were current as of Dec. 18 at 11 a.m. ET on DraftKings Sportsbook.

  • Moneyline: Arizona (-155) • Oklahoma (+130)
  • Spread: Arizona -3 (-112) • Oklahoma +3 (-108)
  • Total Points: Over 62 (-110) • Under 62 (-110)

Likely due in large part to Gabriel’s absence, Arizona is favored in this one by three points, but with the rest of both offenses largely intact, this one could definitely be a shootout with the total set at 62

Arizona vs Oklahoma Prediction

SCORE PICK: Arizona 41, Oklahoma 36

What a year it’s been for Arizona. It was saddled with a preseason win total of just five games and the Pac-12 media vote predicted it to finish around eighth in the conference. But, even as the Pac turned out to be tougher than expected, the Wildcats exceeded all expectations, as they won nine games and finished in third place.

All seemed lost for the Wildcats when quarterback Jayden de Laura went down with an injury, but they may have gotten an outright upgrade with Fifita. Meanwhile, Oklahoma just lost its own star quarterback to the transfer portal, and will be hoping for a similar outcome with its backup as five-star recruit Jackson Arnold will step in for his first extended action.

These two teams grade extremely similarly by EPA when it comes to overall offense and defense, and even more granular metrics like performance against the run. With such a razor-thin margin, we have to side with the team that will not be breaking in a brand new starting quarterback, but the overall talent on the Oklahoma side will keep this one high-paced and close.

Arizona vs Oklahoma Best Bets

Arizona -3 (-112)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

Arizona’s 9-3 record was an impressive surprise, but it’s a bit misleading. Realistically, it was even better.

Its first loss was in overtime at Mississippi State in a game it dominated but were sunk by de Laura’s turnover woes. Its next defeat was by just a touchdown to Washington, still undefeated, and the No. 2 seed in the CFP.

Its most recent loss was all the way back on Oct. 7, in three overtimes, by just two points as it was simply outgunned by Caleb Williams. It’s won six straight contests since then, more than half of which were against opponents who were ranked at the time.

This team is on fire, and will be able to separate from an Oklahoma team missing both its star quarterback and offensive coordinator, as Jeff Lebby is now the head coach at none other than Mississippi State.

Over 62 (-110)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

This Oklahoma team is more defensive than those in years past, so plenty of credit is due to head coach Brent Venables, a defensive-minded leader, but these squads are definitely both offense-first. The Sooners are 13th in pace of play by seconds per snap, and they’ll likely look to keep that pace as they acclimate Arnold to the offense ahead of next season.

He inherits the third-best air attack in the country by EPA per play, so there’s plenty of talent around him

On the Arizona side of things, we’re looking at one of the most pass-heavy offenses in the country as it goes to the air on nearly 55% of snaps. Like Oklahoma, the Wildcats’ offense is top 15 in pass EPA and top-40 for their ground game, while their air defense – 71st by the same metric – is the most mediocre unit either team will be fielding in this contest.

Arizona vs Oklahoma Same-Game Parlay

Arizona vs Oklahoma SGP (+198)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

  • Arizona (-155)
  • Over 62 (-110)

With over a week to go before kickoff, we have few options for our same-game parlay, so let’s keep things simple. We’ll build off of the picks we discussed above, but let’s stick with the slightly safer option of Arizona on the moneyline rather than the spread.

As for a second leg, the over is the only way to go. With two high-powered offenses with few losses to the portal and opt-outs – especially on Arizona’s side – this should be a fun matchup full of plenty of points.

Author

William Schwartz

As a former athlete and lifetime fan, sports have always been a huge part of my life. I've written about them for almost as long as I've been watching and playing them, from a blog I wrote with a friend in middle school, to journalism classes at the University of Michigan, to today. I hope to bring you entertaining coverage, strong analysis, and profitable betting picks on any and all sports, whether it's MLB baseball, college football, European soccer, or anything in between.

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