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Oregon vs Washington Predictions

Last Updated: Nov 28, 2023

In the only top-five matchup of this year’s conference championship week, the No. 3 Washington Huskies will take on the No. 5 Oregon Ducks in a thrilling rematch on Friday night.

The Pac-12 title is on the line, but a spot in the College Football Playoff could also be in the winner’s future.

Oregon vs Washington Odds

Track our latest CFB odds for Ducks vs. Huskies:

NCAAF lines used for Oregon vs Washington were current as of Nov. 28 at 2:30 a.m. ET on DraftKings Sportsbook.

  • Moneyline: Oregon (-345) • Washington (+275)
  • Spread: Oregon -9.5 (-110) • Washington +9.5 (-110)
  • Total Points: Over 67 (-112) • Under 67 (-108)

Despite ranking a couple of spots below Washington in the polls, Oregon is a major favorite in this one, while Vegas also expects plenty of points scored between these West Coast powers.

Oregon vs Washington Prediction

SCORE PICK: Oregon 30, Washington 27

This is the last game in the history of the Pac-12 conference as we know it with realignment on the way, so eternal bragging rights will go to Friday’s victors.

Interestingly enough, with both the Pac-12 conference and the four-team playoff set to be things of the past by next season, these two teams will forever be the only ones from the conference to reach a semifinal under the current format.

If all goes well, one will be making their second trip, but first, they’ll have to face their toughest test yet.

For Washington, it would mean completing a season sweep over a fantastic team – the nation’s best in yards per play, available yards percentage and success rate, according to EPA.

For Oregon, it would mean taking down the only team that has beaten it thus far – in a 36-33 October thriller in which the Huskies had home-field advantage.

Ultimately, Oregon should be able to get the job done this time. It came close in Seattle, and while public focus will be on the superstar quarterback matchup between Oregon’s Heisman candidate Bo Nix and Washigton’s Michael Penix Jr., the key mismatch in this entire game is the Ducks’ rushing offense against the Huskies’ ground defense.

That being said, the ground game isn’t the way to quickly pull ahead. This spread is set too broadly, these teams were separated by just a few points last time, and even if the result flips, the same should be said about the rematch.

Oregon vs Washington Best Bets

Washington +9.5 (-110)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

Make no mistake, Oregon is fantastic, and the recent flip in perception of these two teams relative to one another is generally valid, but it’s gone a bit too far.

We’re talking about a win of double digits against a team that hasn’t lost all year – it’s possible, as Oregon is one of the most well-rounded teams in the country, but it doesn’t feel likely.

It’s hard to truly pull away from a team that can score through the air at a moment’s notice, and that’s exactly what Washington embodies. Most notably, other than Penix, the wideout trio of Rome Odunze, Ja’Lynn Polk, and Jalen McMillan is essentially impossible to completely snuff out.

Even if Oregon pulls ahead, it won’t be able to fully escape the explosiveness of this air group.

Under 67 (-112)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

Oregon’s route to winning this game is by running the football. The Ducks are running for an outstanding 5.8 yards per carry and nearly 200 yards per game.

They are led by the fantastic Bucky Irving, who has cracked the thousand-yard plateau, but second back Jordan James has equalled Irving with 10 touchdowns and is ripping off 7.1 yards per rush.

Their ground offense, ranked second by EPA per play, shouldn’t have an issue doing exactly that against a Washington defense that ranks 122nd against the run by the same metric.

So why is this good for the Under? If the Ducks find success on the ground, they’ll be less likely to pass – this will keep the ball in play and the clock moving.

With Washington’s offense facing a top-20 Oregon defense that will provide more resistance than it’s used to, this is unlikely to be the shootout that the oddsmakers are projecting.

Oregon vs Washington Same-Game Parlay

Oregon vs Washington SGP (+106)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

  • Oregon (-345)
  • Bucky Irving Anytime TD (-320)
  • Washington Under 32.5 (-200)

Luckily, we have plenty of same-game parlay options for conference championship games, but we’ll start with an intuitive leg: Oregon to win. Their defensive superiority should be enough in this pivotal rematch.

We’ll also invest in Irving to find the end zone. He’s done so in eight of the last 10 Oregon games, and he should have no issue against this defense.

Lastly, we’ll keep Washington’s team total under 32.5. The Huskies haven’t been quite as sharp over the past month and haven’t cracked 30 points in either of their past two games.

Against the best defense they’ve seen yet, and in a game in which they won’t dominate possession, they could struggle to light up the scoreboard once more.

Author

William Schwartz

As a former athlete and lifetime fan, sports have always been a huge part of my life. I've written about them for almost as long as I've been watching and playing them, from a blog I wrote with a friend in middle school, to journalism classes at the University of Michigan, to today. I hope to bring you entertaining coverage, strong analysis, and profitable betting picks on any and all sports, whether it's MLB baseball, college football, European soccer, or anything in between.

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