Michigan vs Michigan State Predictions

Last Updated: Oct 16, 2023

There will be a high-energy atmosphere in East Lansing when Michigan State hosts No. 2 Michigan in this classic in-state rivalry.

Michigan is 7-0 on its path to another College Football Playoff, while MSU is 2-4 and looking to turn things around.

Read on for Michigan Wolverines vs. Michigan State Spartans college football odds, picks and predictions for Saturday, Oct. 21, at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Michigan vs Michigan State Odds

Track our latest CFB odds for Wolverines vs Spartans:

NCAAF lines used for Michigan vs Michigan State were current as of Oct. 16 at 1:30 a.m. ET on DraftKings Sportsbook.

  • Moneyline: Michigan (-3200) • Michigan State (+1400)
  • Spread: Michigan -25 (-110) • Michigan State +25 (-110)
  • Total Points: Over 48 (-110) • Under 48 (-110)

Michigan is an enormous road favorite in this one, but we all know crazy things can happen in a rivalry game.

As for the total, the question is whether State can contribute at all, or if they’ll even need to for the Michigan offense to crack this number.

Michigan vs Michigan State Prediction

SCORE PICK: Michigan 49, Michigan State 6

The Wolverines own the all-time series with a record of 72-38-5, including 38-29-2 since the Paul Bunyan Trophy was introduced.

But the two teams are deadlocked with a 4-4 record in the Harbaugh era, and State has a 10-5 edge since 2008, with their most recent win coming in 2021.

Michigan won this game in fairly uncompetitive fashion last year, but that one took place in Ann Arbor, and it still didn’t cover this number.

That being said, Michigan State is in even greater disarray than they were last year, so the No. 2 Wolverines should have no issue pulling away.

Michigan’s offense is coming off consecutive 52-point outings, despite running one of the slowest paces in the country.

The defense has held up its end of the bargain, too, as it is yet to allow a multi-touchdown game.

Against a Spartans team that just allowed Rutgers to take the fourth quarter 21-0 to erase an 18 point deficit and hasn’t won a game since the dismissal of coach Mel Tucker in early September, Michigan should absolutely roll once more.

Michigan vs Michigan State Best Bets

Michigan -25 (-110)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

Simply put, the Spartans aren’t going to be able to compete in any facet of the game.

The offense has not found consistency during the rocky transition from last year’s starter Payton Thorne, who is now at Auburn, to quarterback Noah Kim, who has now been benched.

State’s rushing EPA per play is also 117th in the country, so the whole offense is really struggling to function.

It will be going up against the second-best defense in the country by EPA per play and the best in terms of average points allowed per game.

With a similar mismatch on the other side of the football, this is not the year for State to reclaim the Paul Bunyan Trophy.

Over 48 (-110)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

Even if Michigan State doesn’t contribute at all – which it should, as Michigan has given up a fluky scoring drive or two every week thus far – Michigan’s offense should be fully capable of running this total up on its own.

The number is a friendly one, giving us access to the total of 49, which is a likely outcome as neither team is in a position to be kicking field goals.

Michigan’s offense is 10th in the country in EPA per play, going up against an MSU defense that ranks an abysmal 125th in the same category.

Superstar running back Blake Corum leads the country with 12 rushing touchdowns – running behind the third-rated run blocking line, as per PFF – and wideout Roman Wilson is tied for the national lead with nine receiving scores.

Starting QB J.J. McCarthy seems to have finally taken the leap, landing in the top three in almost every passing efficiency category.

Michigan vs Michigan State Same-Game Parlay

Michigan vs Michigan State SGP (+194)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 units

  • Michigan -25 (-110)
  • Over 48 (-110)

With limited same-game-parlay options at the time of writing, we’re going to combine the two selections from above.

The good news is that these work really well together; if you believe in the Over, you should probably think about boosting your payout by pulling in the spread.

It’s hard to imagine a scenario in which this game gets over 48 points because of even contributions from both squads, but a dominant offensive showing from the Wolverines should do the trick.


William Schwartz

As a former athlete and lifetime fan, sports have always been a huge part of my life. I've written about them for almost as long as I've been watching and playing them, from a blog I wrote with a friend in middle school, to journalism classes at the University of Michigan, to today. I hope to bring you entertaining coverage, strong analysis, and profitable betting picks on any and all sports, whether it's MLB baseball, college football, European soccer, or anything in between.

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