Saturday’s matchup in Tuscaloosa might be the final straw for either the No. 8 Alabama Crimson Tide and the No. 14 LSU Tigers, who were both preseason contenders.
Both could still win the SEC and thus almost assuredly make a semifinal, but those hopes would dissolve with a loss.
Read on for Alabama Crimson Tide vs LSU Tigers college football picks and predictions for Saturday, Nov. 4, at 7:45 p.m. ET.
LSU vs Alabama Odds
Track our latest CFB odds for Tigers vs Crimson Tide:
NCAAF lines used for LSU vs Alabama were current as of Oct. 31 at 9:30 p.m. EST on DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Moneyline: Alabama (-162) • LSU (+136)
- Spread: Alabama -3 (-112) • LSU +3 (-108)
- Total Points: Over 60.5 (-105) • Under 60.5 (-115)
Alabama is seen as exactly a three-point favorite, usually the value of home-field advantage, so the sides are seen as relative equals.
The Over is set at 60.5, considerably higher than you’d expect to see in a rivalry game of this nature.
LSU vs Alabama Prediction
SCORE PICK: Alabama 38, LSU 34
Alabama is lucky that this game is in Tuscaloosa, because if it were in Death Valley again, this LSU team just might have the juice to take them down, as it did last season.
That being said, regardless of location, the LSU defense might be too poor to keep the team in this one – the unit ranks 117th in the country in EPA per play.
Alabama QB Jalen Milroe is third in the country in adjusted completion rate on deep balls – he still needs to develop more consistency from play to play and week to week – but he can hit the big plays. Against a patchwork LSU defense, that should be enough to find the win.
LSU’s offense, led by superstar quarterback Jayden Daniels, is the best in the country by EPA, so it should be able to hang in there. But it’s going against a top-25 defense by all metrics, including fifth by success rate, so it will hit a bit of resistance and come up just short in the upset bid.
LSU vs Alabama Best Bets
Over 60.5 (-110)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit
In a game in which it’s really hard to pick a side, my favorite bet is the Over. LSU’s defense is dealing with a plethora of injuries in the secondary, which will absolutely not help the team’s case. Even with good health it’s a bad unit – the team ranks 120th in the country in EPA against the pass.
Once it shows it can push the ball downfield, Alabama will see all shorts of running lanes open up at the line of scrimmage.
As for the other side of the ball, Alabama’s defense is a good deal better than LSU’s, but the Tigers’ offense will always find a way to score – most often through the connection between Daniels and Malik Nabers, the nation’s leader in receiving yards with 981.
Alabama -3 (-112)
BetRivers Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit
If there is a side to take, it’s absolutely the Crimson Tide’s. While LSU has more experience playing in and winning shootouts, the home-field advantage provided by Bryant-Denny Stadium is enormous, and the LSU defense is simply not good enough to shut down Alabama at home.
To lose this game, or even fail to cover the spread, Alabama will have to beat itself when it has the football with turnovers and other controllable errors.
The Crimson Tide have shown an ability to do this in the past, but things have been cleaner of late, and as is so often the case with Nick Saban’s squads, they’re starting to look the part of a contender as playoff time rolls around.
LSU vs Alabama Same-Game Parlay
LSU vs Alabama SGP (+410)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 units
- LSU Over 26.5 (-166)
- Malik Nabers Anytime TD (-140)
- Alabama 2H (-130)
In this same-game parlay, we’ll build off of some of the concepts we discussed above, but we’ll tackle them from different angles.
Let’s start from the bottom. This is going to be a competitive ballgame, which usually means the winner will win the second half. This should be especially true for Alabama at home, where the crowd will only get more involved as the game goes on.
On the other side of the field, we’ve grabbed Nabers’ touchdown scorer prop. He’s been tremendously consistent, scoring in each of his past three games and in six of his past seven.
In other words, you’re getting an implied probability of 58.33% for something that happens more like 85% of the time – that’s the very definition of value.
Lastly, we’ll place a bet that goes hand in hand with Nabers finding the end zone: LSU’s team total.
We’ll grab the key number of 26.5, giving us access to scenarios in which LSU scores exactly three touchdowns and a pair of field goals, or simply four touchdowns.
This is simply a vote of faith in possibly the country’s best quarterback, receiver, and offense at a number they’ve cracked in every game after their season-opening loss to Florida State.
