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Duke vs NC State Predictions & Best Bets

Last Updated: Mar 30, 2024

The final spot in the 2024 Final Four will be decided when No. 4 seed Duke takes on No. 11 seed NC State in the South Regional Final on Sunday at American Airlines Center.

The Wolfpack continued their magical March run with a 67-58 victory over Marquette on Friday night, while the Blue Devils outlasted an undermanned Houston squad 54-51 to set up this all-ACC matchup.

Let’s examine the latest Duke vs NC State odds and pick out our best Elite 8 bets for this Easter Sunday showdown.

Duke vs NC State Odds

The latest NCAAB odds have Duke as a seven-point favorite in this matchup, depending on your sportsbook of choice.

It’s no surprise that NC State, the lowest remaining seed in the tournament by a significant margin, is once again a considerable underdog.

However, the Wolfpack have won six straight games as underdogs, including a 74-69 victory over Duke in the ACC Quarterfinals just a few weeks ago.

Interestingly enough, the Over/Under for this game — the third between the two teams this season — is set at that exact combined total of the first two meetings, which each saw 143 points.

Duke vs NC State Prediction

Duke 73, NC State 64

Honestly, it’s difficult to know what to expect from these teams after their Sweet 16 performances.

Duke survived a low-scoring, physical encounter with top-seeded Houston, but the Cougars lost All-American guard Jamal Shead late in the first half to an ankle injury. Both coaches admitted after the game that Houston wasn’t the same team without its top player.

And although NC State dispatched second-seeded Marquette with a bit more ease, the Golden Eagles made just four of 31 three-point attempts (12.9%) and weren’t much better from the free-throw line (14-23, 60.9%).

If Shead stays healthy and Marquette hits a few more open looks, it’s very possible neither of these teams are here. But as the adage goes: survive and advance.

That said, it feels like NC State has done a lot of surviving lately. That’s not intended to discredit the talent the Wolfpack possess — DJ Horne and DJ Burns Jr. have been terrific, and role players have stepped up when called upon — and the impressive runs they’ve made through this tournament and the ACC Tournament.

It just feels like the regression monster is coming at some point. Teams aren’t going to miss open threes and free throws forever. And unfortunately, I feel like the run stops here.

Duke vs NC State Best Bets

Duke -7 (-110) vs NC State

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1.5 Units

Duke center Kyle Filipowski (16 points and nine rebounds) had his best game of the tournament against Houston and caused all sorts of problems for NC State in their most recent meeting.

The 7-foot sophomore scored 28 points and collected 14 boards in the ACC Tournament loss, dominating the interior against Burn and Mohamed Diarra.

If he replicates that performance and the Blue Devils continue to get timely scoring from Jeremy Roach, Jared McCain, and Tyrese Proctor on the outside, they’ll reach the Final Four for the first time in the post-Coach K era.

Give me Duke to cover this spread as my best college basketball bet today.

Under 143 Total Points (-110)

bet365 Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

With both prior matchups landing right on the number, this total is tough to call.

But with just a day of rest in between games and each team exerting a lot of energy in the Sweet 16, I’m leaning toward the Under.

Duke is comfortable playing at a reasonably slow tempo (254th nationally, per KenPom), and the Blue Devils should control the pace.

Author

John Arlia

Before joining The Game Day, John served as the National Writer for the United Soccer League, where he primarily covered the USL Championship out of the league’s headquarters in Tampa, FL. A devout soccer fan, John attended the men’s World Cups in Brazil and Russia and can’t wait for the 2026 edition to come to North America. Having also written for Sporting News Canada since getting his master’s from the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism at ASU, John has acquired a diverse sporting background, but considers football, golf, and soccer his three strong suits.

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