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Daytona 500 Odds & Predictions 2024

Last Updated: Feb 16, 2024

The green flag drops on the 66th running of the Daytona 500 on Sunday, Feb. 18, at 2:30 p.m. ET. Winning the “Great American Race” can elevate a driver’s career because of the event’s prestige and how difficult it can be to win.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is the defending race champion, aiming to become the fifth driver to win in consecutive seasons. Ryan Blaney can become the first reigning Cup Series champion since 2000 to win the Daytona 500.

In the 2023 Daytona 500, we saw 52 lead changes, and just 17 cars finished on the lead lap, so forecasting a winner in this highly unpredictable season-opening event is no easy task. Restrictor plate racing can always lead to a sizable amount of wrecks and mishaps, yet I do provide preferred wagering options to consider.

Daytona 500 Winner Odds

Daytona 500 winner odds and lines are current as of Friday, Feb. 16, and appear courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

  • Joey Logano (+900)
  • Denny Hamlin (+1000)
  • Brad Keselowski (+1000)
  • Ryan Blaney (+1100)
  • Kyle Busch (+1200)
  • Chase Elliott (+1200)
  • Kyle Larson (+1400)
  • Christopher Bell (+1600)
  • William Byron (+1800)
  • Michael McDowell (+1800)
  • Bubba Wallace (+1800)
  • Chris Buescher (+1800)
  • Martin Truex Jr. (+2000)

Daytona 500 Winner Prediction

Joey Logano (+900)

Logano took the pole for the Daytona 500, and I had him as a prime pick to win before qualifying when his odds were at +1400. He owns the second-best all-time Driver Rating among active drivers at Daytona International Speedway (89.3).

In the last four Daytona events, Logano leads all drivers in Driver Rating (97.8). During that span, he was also No. 5 in Laps Led (36) and ranked third in Quality Passes (672).

The No. 22 Team Penske Ford driver is another late-race threat, ranking third among Closers (6.5 Average Spots Gained in the final 10 percent of the last four Daytona events). He also won the first race at Atlanta in 2023, in another restrictor plate event.

Logano is my NASCAR pick of the day to hoist the Harley J. Earl Trophy for the second time.

Daytona 500 Favorites

Drivers are listed in order of best bets/preference in each tier/grouping.

Kyle Busch (+1200) at DraftKings Sportsbook

Bad luck at Daytona continued for Busch on Thursday when he wrecked in the second Duel. He will start 34th, but where the two-time Cup champion begins at the site may not factor into his finish. In 2019, as an example, he started 31st and finished second, and a top driver can surely come from the back at the beginning of the race and end up near the front when it counts most.

Last season, Busch appeared to be on the verge of finally winning the Daytona 500, but after leading with three laps left in regulation, he wrecked in overtime. He has the Loop Data numbers to suggest he can contend on Sunday, including being first among all active drivers in all-time Driver Rating at DIS with a mark of 90.7.

Over the past four races at the site, Busch is first in Green Flag Passes (1,212), third in Laps Led (46), second in Fastest Laps Run (21), and second in Quality Passes (passes of cars in the Top 15 while under Green Flag Conditions) with 698. Last year, at other restrictor plate sites, Busch won at Talladega and registered a fifth-place finish at Atlanta.

Denny Hamlin (+1000)

Hamlin leads all active drivers with three Daytona 500 wins. He is attempting to become only the second different driver to win the Busch Light Clash and the Daytona 500 in the same year twice.

Hamlin has not finished in the top 10 in his last five races at DIS. He does have the fourth-best Driver Rating of all time among active drivers at the site (87.9), though, and is one of just four drivers to win the Daytona 500 in consecutive seasons (2019-20).

Brad Keselowski (+1000)

Keselowski has not won a race in the last two seasons, but he has a good shot at ending up in Victory Lane at the “World Center of Racing” this week. After leading for 42 laps in the 2023 Daytona 500, he finished second in the second race at the site last year.

In 2023, Keselowski placed second at Atlanta and fifth at Talladega. Over the past four races at Daytona, he is fourth in Driver Rating (84.9), first in Laps Led (115), and Green Flag Speed (190.680 average).

Christopher Bell (+1600)

In the 2023 Daytona 500, Bell finished third and led for 20 laps. Last year, he also placed third at Atlanta.

Bell’s win in the second Duel at Daytona may have been an indicator that he will push for the victory on Sunday. He will start on the outside of the second row, and is a good wagering option with longer odds than other top contenders.

Ryan Blaney (+1100)

The defending Cup Series champion finished fourth in the 2022 Daytona 500 after winning for the first time at the site in the second race at DIS in 2021. He also has registered a pair of second-place finishes in the Great American Race.

Blaney is a candidate to win the Daytona 500 with a late run, as he ranks first among Closers in the last four Daytona races (9.0). Last year, he scored a win at Talladega and also placed second at that site.

🏁 Back these Daytona 500 winner picks at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Daytona 500 Contenders

William Byron (+1800)

Byron was not able to finish in four consecutive DIS events before placing eighth in the second race at the site last season. He won his first career race at Daytona in 2020, and last year, Byron won at Atlanta and finished second at Talladega.

Chase Elliott (+1200)

A bounce-back season can begin for Elliott at Daytona this week. He finished fourth in the second race at the site last season, and over the past four DIS races, he ranks third in Green Flag Passes (1,119).

Chris Buescher (+1800)

During his 2023 breakout season, Buescher won three times, including the second event at Daytona. He also finished fourth in the Daytona 500 last season after leading for 32 laps.

Over the past four Daytona races, Buescher ranks second in Driver Rating (94.0) and fourth in Quality Passes (663). He also notched a third-place finish at Talladega last season.

Kyle Larson (+1400)

Savvy NASCAR bettors know that Larson is not a top pick at Daytona, yet he is indeed capable of winning on any track at any time. In 19 career starts, he has never recorded a top-5 finish at DIS.

Michael McDowell (+1800)

He is always a candidate to deliver a good performance in a restrictor plate race. McDowell won the Harley J. Earl Trophy in 2021 and finished fourth at Atlanta last year.

Bubba Wallace (+1800)

Wallace has two second place finishes at Daytona, and he has also won at Talladega. In the past four races at DIS, he is third in Fastest Laps Run (20).

North Carolina residents: Beginning in March, you will be able to wager on NASCAR Cup Series events and all of your other favorite sports. You can get ready and learn more about North Carolina sports betting.

Daytona 500 Sleeper Winner Bets

Tyler Reddick (+2800)

Reddick won the first Duel race on Thursday, with an impressive run after starting 19th. But he has not finished in the top 10 in seven of nine Daytona starts.

Alex Bowman (+2800)

Bowman had finishes of fifth and sixth, respectively, in his two Daytona starts last year. In the past four DIS events, he ranked fourth among Closers (5.8 Average Spots Gained).

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+3500)

Even though the defending race champion has two Daytona wins, he is also a risky pick, which is why Stenhouse appears in this grouping. Prior to his win last season, the No. 47 JTG Daugherty Racing Chevrolet driver had not finished in the top 10 at DIS in 10 consecutive starts, and he placed 34th in the second race at the site in 2023.

Austin Cindric (+3500)

In 2022, Cindric won the Daytona 500 and finished third at the site in the second race of the year. He ranks third in Driver Rating (88.5) in the past four DIS events.

A.J. Allmendinger (+4500)

He has finished in the top 6 in two of his last three Daytona starts, and Allmendinger has placed in the top 10 in five of his past six DIS starts. In the Xfinity Series, he has reeled off three consecutive top 3 showings at Daytona.

Corey LaJoie (+4000)

You never know who might end up in Victory Lane at Daytona, as there have been 23 first-time winners at the site. LaJoie finished 10th in the second DIS event last year after starting 37th, and he had fourth-place finishes at Atlanta and Talladega in 2023.

Daytona 500 Finish Prop Bets

All prop bets listed are via DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Friday, Feb. 16 at 3 p.m. ET

  • Brad Keselowski Top 3 (+285)
  • Kyle Busch Top 3 (+330)
  • Christopher Bell Top 3 (+450)
  • Michael McDowell Top 3 (+500)
  • Chris Beuscher Top 5 (+225)
  • Bubba Wallace Top 5 (+225)
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Top 5 (+400)
  • A.J. Allmendinger Top 5 (+550)

Daytona 500 Prop Bets

Michael McDowell (-105) over Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

Both of these drivers can push for a strong finish, but I prefer McDowell, who led 17 laps in the second Duel. Stenhouse has also been unable to finish in three of his last four DIS starts.

Joey Logano (+170) Group B Winner Over Chris Buescher, Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson

The group winner here may come down to Logano or Buescher, as Elliott has been inconsistent at DIS, and it would be a minor surprise to see Larson win this Group Prop. Buescher might be a contender, yet I prefer Logano to prevail late in the race.

How to Bet on the Daytona 500

Dig beyond top drivers and be ready for surprises

Don’t just stick to just big-name drivers when making your Daytona 500 picks. Drivers such as the sleeper types listed could end up at the front of the pack near the end due to wrecks or being proven performers in restrictor plate races.

Diversify your wagers

When issuing DFS recommendations for NASCAR restrictor plate races, I always advise entering multiple lineups. If one driver wrecks, your day is done, so you need to employ many builds to stay in the mix.

The same approach certainly holds true for NASCAR wagering at Daytona. Place bets on a few potential winners, and wager on each driver you like to win and also place in the top three and top five.

Integrate loop data and other advanced statistics into your betting picks

We have shared several important loop data stats in our picks here. Categories such as Quality Passes and Closers could prove to be keys to success.

Keep the race type and restrictor plate use in mind

You can be bold and take the chances on a long shot, but when considering how many units you want to spend, do keep in mind the higher chances of crashes in a restrictor plate event. The Daytona 500 can certainly feel like a high-risk, high-reward event from a betting perspective.

Author

Scott Engel

Scott Engel is a Senior Sports Writer at The Game Day. Previously he was at SportsLine.com and The Athletic. His work is also featured at RotoBaller and on Seahawks.com. Scott is a host on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. He is an inaugural member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association's Hall of Fame. Scott is a four-time FSWA award winner and a 13-time finalist. He was an Associate Editor and featured writer at ESPN.com. and his career began at CBS SportsLine, where he was a Senior Writer and Managing Editor. Scott was the Managing Director at RotoExperts.

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