Daytona 500 Odds & Predictions 2023

The 65th running of the Daytona 500 will be on Sunday, Feb. 19, at 2:30 p.m. ET at Daytona International Speedway.

Austin Cindric earned his first career NASCAR Cup Series victory in the 2022 Daytona 500, as he edged out Bubba Wallace in overtime. It was the ninth time a driver notched his first career win in the “Great American Race.”

Last season’s Daytona 500 featured 35 lead changes, and only 17 cars finished on the lead lap. Predicting a winner will not be easy due to the number of wrecks and mishaps we could see, yet I do feature many prime plays and strategic tips for success.

In the second qualifying race on Thursday night, there was a six-car wreck, and we witnessed five crashes in the 2022 Daytona 500, so get ready for more restrictor plate drama.

Daytona 500 Winner Odds

Daytona 500 winner odds and lines are current as of noon ET on Friday, Feb. 17, and appear courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Kyle Larson (+1000)
Joey Logano (+1200)
Ryan Blaney (+1200)
Chase Elliott (+1200)
Denny Hamlin (+1300)
Kyle Busch (+1400)
William Byron (+1400)
Ross Chastain (+1600)
Bubba Wallace (+1800)
Brad Keselowski (+1800)
Tyler Reddick (+2000)
Austin Cindric (+2000)
Alex Bowman (+2000)
Kevin Harvick (+2500)
Christopher Bell (+2500)
Aric Almirola (+2500)

Daytona 500 Winner Prediction

Joey Logano (+1200) at DraftKings Sportsbook

Logano’s odds decreased after he won the first qualifying race on Thursday. He led for 29 laps and will start third on Sunday as he guns for his second career Daytona 500 victory.

Starting near the front of the pack should give Logano an opportunity to build on his strong performance from Thursday, as starting high in the field can be a bigger advantage in the Next Gen cars at Daytona.

The defending Cup Series champion has the fourth-best Driver Rating of 93.2 over the past two seasons at DIS. He is also second in Laps Led (78) and third in Fastest Laps Run (20).

Logano is my NASCAR pick of the day to take home the checkered flag.

Daytona 500 Favorites

Drivers are listed in order of best bets/preference in each tier/grouping.

Ryan Blaney (+1200) at DraftKings Sportsbook

Blaney, who led the most laps in the first Thursday qualifying duel (30), won the second race at Daytona in 2021. He was in contention to win the 2022 Daytona 500 in overtime before ultimately finishing fourth.

Over the past two seasons at Daytona, Blaney’s Average Finish of 9.7 is the third-best among active drivers at Daytona International Speedway

Blaney has two runner-up finishes in the Daytona 500, tied for second among all active drivers. His 118 Laps Led in the 2018 event is a Daytona 500 record.

Denny Hamlin (+1300) at DraftKings Sportsbook

A three-time winner of the Daytona 500, Hamlin also led for 98 laps in the 2021 event. He wrecked in last year’s Daytona 500, yet his 95.1 Driver Rating and 118 Laps Led are the most among all drivers over the past two seasons at DIS.

If Hamlin wins the Daytona 500 this week, he will tie NASCAR Hall of Famer Cale Yarborough for the second-most wins in the event with four. His odds went up from +1200 after he finished ninth in the second qualifying race on Thursday, but he is still a strong pick.

Hamlin leads all active drivers in Laps Led in the Daytona 500 with 474 and he is fifth on the career NASCAR leaderboard in that category. His career DR of 89.0 at DIS is third-best among active drivers and his eight top-five finishes are tied for the most in the field.

Chase Elliott (+1200) at DraftKings Sportsbook

Elliott has never won at Daytona, but he had consecutive second-place showings in the second race at the site in 2020 and the 2021 Daytona 500. He has a DR of 93.6 over the past two seasons at DIS (second-best among active drivers).

Elliott won at both Talladega and Atlanta in 2022. Both are comparable super speedways to help us formulate predictions for Daytona.

In the past two seasons at Daytona, Elliott leads all drivers in Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 while under Green Flag conditions, 669). He is second in Green Flag Passes (984) and Laps Led (70).

Elliott finished third in the second qualifying race on Thursday.

Kyle Larson (+1000) at DraftKings Sportsbook

Larson also has never won at Daytona, and he has endured bad luck in the last three races at the site, with two wrecks and engine damage. I do prefer the other top three favorites over him, as Larson has never finished in the top 10 in 17 Daytona starts.

But Larson did finish fourth in the first race at Talladega last year, and after qualifying on the front row, he now has the best odds to win the Daytona 500.

Over the past two seasons at Daytona, Larson is fourth in Fastest Laps Run (19). Also consider that 25 percent of Daytona 500 winners have started from the front row, and seven overall from the second-place starting position.

I am not highly enthusiastic about backing Larson as a top pick to win the Daytona 500 based on his history at the site. Yet he has also shown us he is capable of winning on any track at any time.

🏁 Back these Daytona 500 winner props at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Daytona 500 Contenders

Kyle Busch (+1400) at DraftKings Sportsbook

Busch, who is making his Richard Childress Racing debut, is still looking for his first Daytona 500 win after finishing sixth in the event in 2022. His 96.7 DR is second among all active drivers at Daytona over the past two seasons and his 91.7 career DR is second-best.

In the second race on Thursday, Busch had a car that looked dominant, as he led for 28 laps, but he wrecked with 18 laps left. He will start from the 36th position, which is why I don’t have Busch as my featured pick to win, but it is possible Busch can avoid crashes and eventually navigate to the front of the pack.

Over the past two seasons at Daytona, Busch has the most Quality Passes (662), and he is third in Green Flag Passes at Daytona (953).

Ross Chastain (+1600) at DraftKings Sportsbook

Chastain won the first race at Talladega last season and finished fourth in the second event. He finished second in both Atlanta races in 2022.

In the 2021 Daytona 500, Chastain started 34th and finished seventh. He also won the second Xfinity race at the site in 2019, so Chastain certainly has the potential to pull off the victory.

Austin Cindric (+2000) at DraftKings Sportsbook

The defending Daytona 500 champion finished second in the second qualifying race on Thursday. He finished third in the second Daytona race in 2022 and third in the second Atlanta race.

Over the past two seasons at Daytona, Cindric is third in DR (93.4), Last year, he became the first rookie in Cup history to win the Daytona 500, and he can become just the second driver in Cup history to notch his first two career wins in the iconic event.

Bubba Wallace (+1800) at DraftKings Sportsbook

Wallace has finished in the top five in three of his past five Daytona starts, with two second-place finishes. Over the past two seasons at the site, Wallace leads in Green Flag Passes (1,040) and he is second in Fastest Laps Run (26), third in Quality Passes (623), and among Closers (5.8 average spots gained in the final 10 percent of races).

William Byron (+1400) at DraftKings Sportsbook

Byron has wrecked in his last three Daytona starts, but he did win the second race at the site in 2020. He won the first race at Atlanta last season.

Aric Almirola (+2500) at DraftKings Sportsbook

Almirola won the second Thursday race, as he took over the lead with two laps remaining. He finished fifth in the 2022 Daytona 500 after starting 38th, and he also placed fourth in the second Talladega race.

Alex Bowman (+2000) at DraftKings Sportsbook

Bowman extended his record of five consecutive starts on the Daytona 500 this week, as he earned the first starting position on Wednesday night. In his previous five Daytona 500 starts, he started from the pole twice and three times from second place.

A total of nine drivers have won the Daytona 500 from the pole, but Dale Jarrett was the last one to accomplish the feat in 2000. Bowman is fifth among Closers (average spots gained in the final 10 percent of races. 4.5) at DIS.

Daytona 500 Sleeper Bets

Austin Dillon (+3000) at DraftKings Sportsbook

His odds tumbled when Dillon finished 13th in the first qualifying duel, but Dillon won for the second time at Daytona in the second event at the site last season.

Jimmie Johnson (+4000) at DraftKings Sportsbook

It seems strange to rank Johnson among the sleepers, but he is making a return as an owner and part-time driver for a new team, Legacy Motor Club, after a long layoff. He has not raced since the 2020 season and Johnson has one top-five finish in his last 10 Daytona starts, but he was the fastest open car in qualifying.

Justin Haley (+4000) at DraftKings Sportsbook

Haley won the second race at Daytona in 2019 and he finished sixth in the second race at the site in 2021. He also won the second Xfinity race at Daytona in 2020 and 2021.

Michael McDowell (+3500) at DraftKings Sportsbook

McDowell is always a good value play in restrictor plate races. He won the 2021 Daytona 500 and finished seventh in last year’s event.

At Talladega last season, McDowell finished eighth and third, after starting 29th in the second race.

Corey Lajoie (+3500) at DraftKings Sportsbook

Lajoie finished fifth in the first race at Atlanta last year after he started in the 33rd position, and he finished 14th in the first Talladega race from the same starting position. He finished eighth in the 2020 Daytona 500 and ninth in 2021.

Lajoie is the type of driver who could end up being a first-time Daytona 500 winner this week, as he has shown the acumen to perform well at Daytona and similar tracks. He does not have a Cup series win yet, but Lajoie can be one of those lesser-heralded drivers who are competing for victory after some big wrecks.

Daytona 500 Finish Prop Bets

All prop bets listed are via DraftKings Sportsbook

Denny Hamlin Top 3 (+350)
Kyle Busch Top 3 (+400)
Bubba Wallace Top 5 (+280)
Austin Cindric Top 5 (+350)
Aric Almirola Top 5 (+450)
Michael McDowell Top 5 (+450)
Jimmie Johnson Top 5 (+500)
Justin Haley Top 5 (+500)

Daytona 500 Prop Bets

Chase Elliott (+100) over Kyle Larson at DraftKings Sportsbook

When considering Daytona 500 props, always go with plus-money picks, especially when you clearly prefer one driver over another. The wide variety of outcomes in a restrictor plate race can lead to a trip to the pay window when wagering on any driver vs driver prop.

Ross Chastain (+300) Group Winner Over Joey Logano, Kyle Busch, William Byron

Of course, I like Logano and Busch over Chastain, yet again, the natural high unpredictability of this event can lead to the driver with the longest odds in the group prevailing over the others. DraftKings has four group winner prop contests available, and I would take the drivers with the longest odds in all of them.

How to Bet on the Daytona 500

Dig beyond top drivers and be ready for surprises

Don’t just stick to just big-name drivers when making your Daytona 500 picks. We have seen a first-time winner in at least one of the Daytona races in the last five seasons.

Diversify your wagers

When issuing DFS recommendations for NASCAR restrictor plate races, I always advise entering multiple lineups. If one driver wrecks, your day is done, so you need to employ many builds to stay in the mix.

The same approach certainly holds true for NASCAR wagering at Daytona. Place bets on a few potential winners, and wager on each driver you like to win and also place in the top three and top five.

Integrate loop data and other advanced statistics into your betting picks

We have shared several important loop data stats in our picks here. Categories such as Quality Passes and Closers could prove to be keys to success.

Keep the race type and restrictor plate use in mind

You can be bold and take the chances on a long shot, but when considering how many units you want to spend, do keep in mind the higher chances of crashes in a restrictor plate event. The Daytona 500 can certainly feel like a high-risk, high-reward event from a betting perspective.

Selected statistics via driveraverages.com, racing-reference.info, and NASCAR Media.