U.S. Open Predictions & Best Bets 2023 | Golf Odds & Betting Picks

Last Updated: Jun 15, 2022

The third major of 2022 has arrived amidst a chaotic time for the game of golf.

Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you have probably heard something about LIV Golf. This Saudi-backed breakaway league has lured the likes of Phil Mickelson, Dustin Johnson, Bryson DeChambeau, and others with a different format (shotgun starts, 54-hole team events, etc.) and significantly large sums of money.

Some players have resigned from the PGA Tour. Those that didn’t were suspended on Thursday after teeing it up at the first LIV Golf event in London.

However, the majors are a different story. The PGA Tour doesn’t organize them. The United States Golf Association, which operates next week’s U.S. Open, released a statement earlier this week saying that anyone who had qualified for the 2022 Open would be allowed to play.

That means those three headlining superstars and anyone else who qualified from LIV Golf will be making their way to The Country Club in Brookline, Massachusetts, for what will be an enthralling spectacle on and off the course.

To make matters even more interesting, Mickelson returns to the event that has long prevented him from winning the career Grand Slam, having finished runner-up at the U.S. Open on six different occasions.

While there will be plenty to look out for, we’re here to pick a winner, so let’s look at the odds.

U.S. Open Winner Odds 2022

U.S. Open winner odds are current as of Tuesday, June 14, at 5 p.m. ET and courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

  • Rory McIlroy (+1000)
  • Justin Thomas (+1100)
  • Scottie Scheffler (+1200)
  • Jon Rahm (+1400)
  • Cameron Smith (+1800)
  • Jordan Spieth (+2200)
  • Matt Fitzpatrick (+2200)
  • Xander Schauffele (+2200)
  • Collin Morikawa (+2500)
  • Will Zalatoris (+2500)
  • Shane Lowry (+2500)
  • Patrick Cantlay (+2500)
  • Sam Burns (+2500)

Sportsbook Play of the Day

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Read Chris Wassel’s Caesars Sportsbook review for more insight and get your welcome bonus below, or continue reading this analysis for our U.S. Open tipster picks.

U.S. Open Field

The U.S. Open features a full field of 156 players.

As things currently stand, the top players from the PGA Tour and LIV Golf will be there. The notable name that won’t is Tiger Woods, who released a statement earlier this week saying he needs to get stronger to play major championship golf.

Woods, who made the cut at the Masters and PGA Championship, is making the (wise) decision to focus his efforts on preparing for the 150th Open Championship at St. Andrew’s, a venue that he won at in 2000 and 2005.

Other notables in the field include Matt Fitzpatrick, who won the 2013 U.S. Amateur at The Country Club, defending U.S. Open champion Jon Rahm, and 2o22 major champions Scottie Scheffler and Justin Thomas.

U.S. Open Weather

We’re still a few days away from teeing things up, so there’s still the possibility that the weather could change.

As of Tuesday afternoon, however, I don’t see too much to be worried about. There could be heavier winds on Thursday afternoon and we may see some light precipitation on Friday and Saturday afternoon, but this certainly won’t be a washout.

Temperatures are expected to reach the low to mid 80s at times over the first two days but things will cool off significantly on Saturday with the high forecasted around 60. Sunday should be much nicer, with the sun expected to break through and temperatures rising into the 70s.

Overall, it looks like the Thursday AM/Friday PM wave of tee times could have a slight advantage with calmer winds, but I wouldn’t be fully stacking DFS lineups or betting cards with players from that group just yet.

U.S. Open Winner Prediction

Daniel Berger (+5000) at BetMGM Sportsbook

In major championship golf, it’s rare to see a year where the top-tier elite players win all four majors.

We are halfway there in 2022, with Scheffler and Thomas winning the green jacket and Wanamaker Trophy, respectively, so I’m going further down the board here.

Berger has a pair of top-10 finishes at the U.S. Open in the last four years — including a seventh-place finish last year at Torrey Pines — and this course should suit him. Three of his four professional wins have come on short (below 7,250 yards) Par 70s.

He’s accurate off the tee, his approach play has been solid, and his best putting comes on poa greens. Berger is coming off a fifth-place finish at the Memorial, another very challenging tournament, and should be primed to contend for his first major.

U.S. Open Best Bets

Max Homa (+4500) at DraftKings Sportsbook

Homa is a fan favorite, especially for those who enjoy a good laugh on Twitter, but his game is no joke.

He has been one of the best players on the PGA Tour this year, finishing in the top 25 in all but two of the 11 events he has played (48th at the Masters, MC at the Farmers).

In May, Homa won the Wells Fargo Championship at TPC Potomac (another short Par 70), where scoring was at a premium (like it will be this week). He is also coming in off a fifth-place finish at the Memorial and is playing some of the best golf of his career.

Adding a major to the trophy case is the next step.

Louis Oosthuizen Top-10 Finish (+600)

While a lot of talk this week is focused around LIV Golf, the players that have joined the Saudi-backed tour are seemingly garnering little-to-no interest in the betting market.

One example is South African Louis Oosthuizen, who finished 10th at the first LIV event in London last week and has an exemplary record at the U.S. Open over the last three years with three top-10 finishes (2nd, 3rd, T7).

While his PGA Tour results this year before the move weren’t all that inspiring, these odds are too long for a player of his caliber and recent track record at USGA setups.

Dustin Johnson Top-20 Finish (+165)

A lot of the same points can be made for Dustin Johnson, who won this event in 2016 and has finished in the top 20 three of the past four years.

DJ has the length off the tee to compete at any USGA setup and although he hasn’t been at the peak of his powers lately — he hasn’t won anywhere in the world since the 2020 Masters — he certainly has the skillset required to make a run at this.

An outright at 40-1 or longer is definitely tempting as well given his track record at the U.S. Open, but this feels like the safer play.

U.S. Open Course Tips

The Country Club (Brookline, MA.)

  • Par 70 (7,254 yards)
  • The Country Club last held the U.S. Open in 1988 when Curtis Strange defeated Nick Faldo in an 18-hole playoff for the first of his two back-to-back titles.
  • We could learn more from Matt Fitzpatrick’s 2013 U.S. Amateur victory here, as Gil Hanse led the course redesign in 2009 in preparation for that event. Still, there will be some new features this time around. Notably, the 27-hole property will be incorporating a completely different hole, with the Par-4 4th getting swapped out for the short, downhill Par-3 12th. According to the Boston Herald, it will be the first time that hole has been used in competition since 1957.
  • If there’s one thing you can count on at the U.S. Open, it is long rough. That will be a challenge for players, especially given the course’s small greens (average of 4,388 sq. ft.). Two approaches will work here. One option is bombing it into the thick rough like Bryson DeChambeau did in his U.S. Open victory and getting as close to the green as possible for your second shot. The other alternative is finding as many fairways as possible, as length may not be the ultimate decider on this setup.
  • The greens are poa annua, which doesn’t always provide the smoothest rolls when putting. Check out which surfaces each player putts best on before placing your bets!

U.S. Open Event Details

  • Dates: Thursday, June 16 - Sunday, June 19, 2022
  • Course: The Country Club (Brookline, Mass.)
  • Course Dimensions: Par 70 (7,254 yards)
  • 2021 U.S. Open Winner: Jon Rahm
  • How to Watch: NBC/Golf Channel


John Arlia

Before joining The Game Day, John served as the National Writer for the United Soccer League, where he primarily covered the USL Championship out of the league’s headquarters in Tampa, FL. A devout soccer fan, John attended the men’s World Cups in Brazil and Russia and can’t wait for the 2026 edition to come to North America. Having also written for Sporting News Canada since getting his master’s from the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism at ASU, John has acquired a diverse sporting background, but considers football, golf, and soccer his three strong suits.

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