Flowers are blooming, temperatures are rising, and the best golfers in the world are heading to Augusta, Georgia, for The Masters.
Spring is officially here.
The first major championship of 2022 is upon us, and one lucky golfer will get to don the famous green jacket at Augusta National Golf Club on Sunday afternoon.
Last year, that honor went to Hideki Matsuyama, who held off Will Zalatoris and Xander Schauffele to become the first Japanese man to win a major championship.
I was lucky enough to be holding a 46-1 outright ticket on Matsuyuma last April, so let’s see if I can conjure up some of that magic once again as we look into the odds and make some wagers on the 2022 Masters Tournament.
The Masters Winner Odds 2022
The Masters Tournament winner odds are current as of Monday, April 4, at 12 p.m. ET and courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
- Jon Rahm (+1000)
- Justin Thomas (+1400)
- Dustin Johnson (+1600)
- Cameron Smith (+1600)
- Scottie Scheffler (+1600)
- Jordan Spieth (+1800)
- Rory McIlroy (+2000)
- Brooks Koepka (+2000)
- Collin Morikawa (+2000)
- Patrick Cantlay (+2000)
- Viktor Hovland (+2000)
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The Masters Course Tips
Augusta National Golf Club (Augusta, Ga.)
- Par 72 (7,475 yards)
- As the only major championship that is played annually at the same course, we generally know what to expect from Augusta National. It’s a long layout that is made more challenging by severe undulations, not just on the greens, but of the terrain itself.
- Wide fairways are typically easy to find off the tee, but the course isn’t going to punish golfers that drive it into the rough. This isn’t a U.S. Open setup. Instead, driving distance is a more of a distinguishing factor than accuracy, as there are multiple Par-4s that measure around 500 yards. Shorter hitters will have a tough time reaching those greens in regulation.
- The green complexes at Augusta are very complicated, which usually gives players that have more experience at The Masters an upper hand. The greens themselves are comprised of bent grass and will typically play firm and lightning quick.
- The 2020 edition, won by Dustin Johnson with a record score of 20-under, was an exception to that. It took place in November due to the pandemic. Rain had softened the course, which allowed for players to target the pins and led to record-low scoring. Matsuyama won at 10-under last year, which was closer to the range we typically see.
- If you want to get yourself a green jacket, you’re going to have to take advantage of the four Par-5s. They rate out as the four easiest holes on the course, per Fantasy National. Only two other holes, No. 3 (Par-4, 350 yards) and No. 16 (Par-3, 170 yards), have surrendered birdie or better to the field at least 15% of the time.
- When diving further into the analytics, Strokes Gained Approach is always a key factor. You need your golfers to be giving themselves as many looks at birdies as possible. Per Justin Ray, the Masters champion has ranked in the top 10 in greens in regulation that week in all but one year since 2015, with the superb pitching and putting performance from Patrick Reed in 2018 (21st) being the lone exception.
The Masters Field
As you would expect for the first major championship of the year, the field is full of elite talent.
Unlike the other majors, however, The Masters has a more exclusive field and will have 91 players in total participate. That includes J.J. Spaun, who qualified by winning the Valero Texas Open on Sunday.
Included in that group is a handful of amateurs and past champions that don’t have a chance at winning (or likely competing), so making it through the cut (top 50 + ties) is generally easier at the Masters than at other majors.
One past champion that is a game-time decision to tee it up this week is Tiger Woods, who hasn’t played in a professional event since The Masters in November 2020.
- Click to read about Tiger Woods’ return to the Masters.
While Tiger has proven over and over that he can never be counted out, there’s a reason that he’s currently pretty far down the odds board (+5000) in terms of an outright bet.
Masters winners typically have a strong run of recent form heading into the event, much more like what we’ve seen from new No. 1 ranked golfer in the world Scottie Scheffler.
Scheffler will be making his first appearance with that moniker at the Masters, coming off three wins this season at the Phoenix Open, API, and the Match Play.
The 25-year-old will look to join the likes of Collin Morikawa, Bryson DeChambeau, and Jon Rahm as next-generation superstars to win a major championship.
The Masters Weather
As of Monday afternoon, it looks like Augusta could get some rain on Tuesday and then a light shower Wednesday night into Thursday morning that should conclude as the early groups tee off.
Thursday looks to be the warmest of the four days, with temperatures reaching the mid-70s before cooling off into the 50s and low-60s for the remainder of the tournament.
We could also see some wind gusts up to about 20 mph throughout the week, but conditions look the calmest on Sunday.
Overall, it doesn’t look like we have much to worry about, especially compared to the most recent chaos at The PLAYERS Championship.
The Masters Tournament Winner Prediction
Jordan Spieth (+2200)
The odds reshuffle on Monday morning was always going to determine whether I stuck with my original selection of Jon Rahm or not but seeing Spieth beyond 20-1 was enough to pique my interest.
The 2015 Masters champion has a sterling record around Augusta National, having also finished runner-up twice and third twice in eight career starts.
Spieth’s recent results leave a bit to be desired, but he did lead the field in strokes gained tee-to-green last week at the Valero Texas Open and ranked second in strokes gained approach (6.2). A lot of those ball striking gains (6.9 T2G & 4.7 APP) came during Sunday’s round, which is a positive sign heading into this week.
The worry is the typically strong putter, which has abandoned the 28-year-old of late. Spieth lost a career-worst 7.2 strokes to the field on the greens last week, which was punctuated by a Friday three-putt from inside three feet.
While it’s not ideal to see Spieth struggling with the flatstick to the degree he did last week – three of the four rounds at Valero ranked among his 10 worst putting performances of his past 100 rounds – I trust his putting ability more than Rahm’s over the long term and am willing to roll the dice on a better number this week.
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The Masters Best Bets
Jon Rahm Top-5 Finish (+225) at Caesars
Just because I changed my mind on the outright market, mostly due to pricing, that doesn’t mean I like Rahm’s chances this week any less. He’s finished inside the top 10 in each of his last four appearances at The Masters, including a solo fourth in 2018 and a T-5 last year.
His recent form is solid as he’s gained 3.5+ strokes off the tee in each of his last five starts and 3+ on approach in four of those five events. The only things holding Rahm back of late have been his struggles on and around the green and the pressure of expectation.
Since the turn of the year, the 2021 U.S. Open champion hasn’t missed a cut in seven appearances and has five top-20 finishes. He also finished 21st at the Genesis Invitational.
Sure, he hasn’t won since claiming his first major last June, but it’s not easy to win golf tournaments. We’re all just spoiled because we watched Tiger Woods win at a superhuman clip.
Now the No. 2 player in the world, Rahm enters The Masters with a point to prove. If he can just find his touch on the greens as he has here previously (11th in SG Putting at Augusta since 2018, per Justin Ray), he should be amongst the contenders once again.
Brooks Koepka Top-10 Finish (+190) at Caesars
Koepka is the definition of a big-game hunter, seemingly always saving his best golf for the major championships.
He recorded top-10 finishes in three of the four majors last year, only failing to do so at The Masters. That result shouldn’t be held against the four-time major champion, however, as he gutted out two rounds (and missed the cut) just weeks removed from knee surgery.
Now back in better health, Brooks has shown flashes of his A-level game sporadically this year. He came third in Phoenix and posted a pair of top-20 finishes at Honda and Valspar during the Florida swing, gaining 5+ strokes from tee-to-green in all three events.
Outside of last year, his track record at ANGC is unsurprisingly strong. He finished T-7 in the November edition, T-2 in 2019, and T-11 the start before that in 2017.
Given his form and major championship pedigree, expect Brooks to be in the mix on the weekend.
Robert MacIntyre Top-20 Finish (+330) at Caesars
Left-handers have a track record of success at Augusta National, with Phil Mickelson (3), Bubba Watson (2), and Mike Weir among those donning green jackets since the turn of the century.
The long-hitting Scotsman will try to follow in their footsteps this week after an impressive 12th-place finish in his Masters debut a year ago.
MacIntyre posted three worldwide top-20 finishes in February (two in the UAE, one in California) and played three solid rounds at the Valero last week but ruined any chances of winning with a Saturday 76.
After shooting seven better on Sunday, look for the 25-year-old to return to Augusta with some confidence.
Tiger Woods to Make the Cut (-110) at BetMGM
I know Tiger Woods hasn’t played competitive golf in a long time, and I also know that even just walking this course can present a challenge to those not fully fit, but there’s no way Tiger would put himself out there on this grand stage if he didn’t think he could compete.
The Tiger that I’ve watched my whole life isn’t going to be out here embarrassing himself. That’s not who he is.
Tiger has missed The Masters before through injury, including last year’s edition, but when he’s played he hasn’t missed the cut at Augusta since 1996 when he was making his second start here as an amateur.
We’ve already talked about how the threshold for making the cut here is lower than it is at other majors and how experience is key to contending and winning. No one knows Augusta National better than the five-time Masters champ.
If he’s teeing it up, he’s making the weekend. And since BetMGM is offering to void the bet if Tiger doesn’t play, this is great value at plus-money.
Cameron Smith to Defeat Scottie Scheffler (-110) at BetMGM
This matchup is extremely interesting because it pits two favorites against each other, both of whom have seen their odds shrink dramatically in recent weeks due to their strong play since the turn of the year.
After racking up three wins in his last five starts, including last time out at the Dell Technologies Match Play, Scottie Scheffler is now the No. 1 ranked golfer in the world.
Cameron Smith also enters the Masters off the back of a win in his last start, taking down the $3.6 million first prize at The PLAYERS Championship. He also outdueled Jon Rahm to win the Sentry Tournament of Champions in January.
Both guys are playing at their peak level right now, but I trust Smith more around Augusta National. He’s got three top-10 finishes in four Masters starts and has an immaculate short game to compliment improved distance off the tee. Smith would be an outright bet for me if the price hadn’t gotten so steep.
Scheffler has racked up a pair of top-20 results in his first two trips to Augusta and could certainly keep this outrageous heater going with another strong performance, but I’ll take my chances with the Aussie in this matchup.
The Masters Tournament Event Details
- Dates: Thursday, April 7 - Sunday, April 10, 2022
- Course: Augusta National Golf Club
- Course Dimensions: Par 72 (7,475 yards)
- 2021 Masters Winner: Hideki Matsuyama
- How to Watch: ESPN/CBS
