With a weekend full of upsets, red cards, and wild officiating decisions, it was pretty hard to keep track of all of the action in the Premier League.
The top of the table is tight, and all contenders are firing on all cylinders, so let’s take a look at some best bets for matchweek eight, including a parlay to increase the payout on some favorites.
William Schwartz’s 2023-24 EPL Betting Record: 6-6-0 (+1.62 units)
Premier League Matchweek 8 Predictions
Premier League odds used below are current as of Tuesday, Oct. 3, at 9 a.m. ET, at the specified sportsbook.
Liverpool ML (+120) at Brighton
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Last weekend, Liverpool once again conceded first, took not one but two controversial red cards, were the victims of arguably the worst VAR decision yet, and it still took a 96th-minute own goal for Tottenham to secure all three points.
The Reds were incredibly impressive playing down a man, and eventually, two men and many spectators believed that they deserved at least a point, if not all three.
After a loss in which the team didn’t even play particularly badly, this is a great low spot for a team that was previously undefeated and on fire. They’ll have a good bounce-back opportunity during the week in the Europa League against Union Saint-Gilloise and should come up to Brighton with plenty of momentum.
As for Brighton, their charmed start to the season is quickly turning around as they’ve fallen down from third place to sixth. They have whatever you’d consider the opposite of momentum, as they pulled off the impressive feat of losing to Chelsea to get knocked out of the EFL Cup and then received a battering of historic proportions in a loss at Villa over the weekend.
With a sneaky-challenging Europa League clash of their own this week, Brighton could truly be reeling as they prepare to host Liverpool.
Incidentally, the Reds do not have to leave home for this week’s European clash, while Brighton will be traveling to the South of France for theirs. Travel could be a factor for a team less used to playing European contests in our EPL pick of the day.
West Ham vs Newcastle Draw (+270)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 Units
It’s a monumental moment, as we’ve arrived at the first true draw prediction in this column’s short history. While I’m not much of a trends bettor, Newcastle are outrageously overdue for a draw.
They’re right in the middle of the table at 8th and are one of just five clubs in the league who haven’t pulled a draw yet despite the fact that they led the league with 14 last year, due in part to their scrappy, defensive play style.
Other than the 8-0 battering of Sheffield, their record is pretty much even; three wins, three losses, +3 differential. This team has been hovering around average to start the year without ever ending a match in a stalemate, and going up against another quite average team who are just a point ahead of them in the table is the perfect opportunity.
Newcastle’s defense has once again been one of the best in the league in terms of xG conceded, while West Ham’s attack is just about dead average by the same metric. This could very well be a cagey, low-scoring battle, putting the under in play, but with 0-0 and 1-1 such likely outcomes if you place that wager, this provides better value.
West Ham have largely done exactly their job this year; lose to Man City and Liverpool, beat Sheffield and Luton, and other similarly predictable results without any crazy upsets.
Against another upper to mid-table team like Newcastle, this could very well be a deadlock at London Stadium, especially as the Magpies have struggled to generate offense away from home, save for the Sheffield outlier.
Manchester City ML (+155) at Arsenal
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
This is the definition of buying low on a team that is going to bounce back.
City are in a relatively rough stretch, especially relative to their own outrageous standards set by so much success. They conceded first to Red Star in a shaky UCL showing, took a red card in a strange home win over Nottingham Forest, lost to Newcastle in the Carabao Cup, and then to Wolves in the Prem.
That being said, this is still Manchester City, and they are the team to beat until further notice, at home or away.
Pep Guardiola is still the man in charge, and he has absolutely dominated his pupil Mikel Arteta, Arsenal’s boss. In addition to, of course, staging a major comeback to win the Premier League title race, City-owned Arsenal head-to-head last year as they knocked the Gunners out of the FA Cup and also dealt them two of their six Prem losses.
This Arsenal squad is still one of the best in the league, but they’re still learning to balance the rigors of Champions League football with domestic pursuits, and the City dynasty is simply ironclad.
Premier League Matchweek 8 Parlay
EPL Matchweek 8 Parlay (+204)
- Tie or Aston Villa Win (-320) vs Wolves
- Tottenham Moneyline (-225) at Luton
- Fulham Moneyline (-165) vs Sheffield United
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Two of these legs are as simple as can be. Sheffield and Luton’s opponents will be heavy contenders to be included in this weekly parlay until either team shows that they are actually Premier League caliber.
Luton did pick up a win against Everton over the weekend, and winning your club’s first-ever Premier League game is a true accomplishment, but Everton are a truly dreadful side, and I don’t expect Luton to make a habit of scoring not one but two set pieces.
Going up against a Tottenham side that has run with England’s best over the first couple of weeks of the season, they will not be replicating the success they found against the Toffees, especially considering Son Heung-Min’s current form.
Sheffield have been even worse as they sit in dead last with the league’s worst goal differential, due in large part to that battering at the hands of Newcastle.
Outside of a draw with the aforementioned pathetic Everton side, the team has not claimed a single point all year. Their weaknesses are far too many to name in this column, and they’re simply not going to compete on the road against a Fulham side that has turned in respectable results all year once again. Lastly, there’s Villa, who will be hosting Wolves.
This is our chance to sell high on Wolves, who just beat Manchester City, a win in which they were outplayed in terms of shots, xG, possession, you name it.
Going on the road to face a Villa squad that currently sits in fourth after that 6-1 thrashing of Brighton is not a good spot for them, and while we don’t want to entirely rule out a tie after that City result, the chance that Wolves secure all three points again are astronomically low.
