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Premier League Best Bets Matchweek 7

Last Updated: Sep 28, 2023

European play has kicked off for the top clubs in England, and we’re already seeing the effects after Arsenal followed up a dominant return to the Champions League with a home draw in the North London derby.

Balancing domestic and continental pursuits will be a massive challenge for the Premier League’s European representatives.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at some best bets for Matchweek 7, including a parlay of a few heavier favorites.

William Schwartz’s 2023-24 EPL Betting Record: 6-2-0 (+5.62 units)

Premier League Matchweek 7 Predictions

Premier League odds used below are current as of Wednesday, Sept. 27, at 9 a.m. ET, at the specified sportsbook.

Liverpool ML (+120) at Tottenham

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

Liverpool’s last loss to Tottenham was Oct. 22, 2017. Let let that sink in.

Mohamed Salah had just arrived at Liverpool, and Harry Kane had scored under 100 Premier League goals for Spurs. Since then, the two sides have met 12 times, with three draws and nine Liverpool wins – eight of which were in the league, while the other was in the Champions League final.

Suffice it to say, this has been a one-sided fixture in the Jürgen Klopp era. While the squads drew twice in the 2021-22 campaign, a much-diminished Liverpool side still swept both fixtures last season.

Right now, both squads look much better than they did a year ago, but Liverpool are flying higher as the team’s new “3-box-3” system is having a positive effect.

After consecutive 3-1 wins over West Ham United domestically and LASK in the Europa League, Liverpool’s attack is free-flowing. It should have no problem hanging some goals on Tottenham’s defense, which is a real weak spot for the squad.

Mentality-wise, Liverpool should have the edge here, too; they’re rolling with the wins, so they’re not lacking confidence, but they keep conceding early, which is keeping them grounded and locked in.

Conversely, Tottenham just picked up an enormous road draw in the North London derby, so this is a classic letdown spot for Ange Postecoglou’s men in our EPL pick of the day.

Tie or Fulham Win (-130) vs Chelsea

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

Once again, we find ourselves with an outstanding opportunity to fade Chelsea, which has been one of the more profitable approaches to Premier League betting over the past couple of seasons. The Blues are 14th in the table, just a point above true relegation candidates such as Everton and Wolverhampton Wanderers, and two points above Bournemouth.

Chelsea have played at home in four of their six matches so far but won just one of those contests against a heartwarming but decidedly mediocre Luton Town. On the road, they’ve fought to a scoreless draw with a hapless Bournemouth side, who have yet to win in the league this season.

Enter Fulham, who finished 10th a year ago after an impressive post-promotion season and are hoping for more this time. They’re sitting in just about the same spot in the table, but it’s hard to complain about the results, as they’ve played at home just twice.

The Cottagers’ road matches have included a nice win over Everton and solid draws with Arsenal and Crystal Palace, so they’ll be excited to get back to Craven Cottage and put on a show for the home supporters.

Both sides played midweek in the Carabao Cup. Fulham knocked out Championship side Norwich City, while Chelsea sealed a morale-boosting win against Brighton & Hove Albion, who sit third in the league and have claimed wins over Manchester and Newcastle United.

Fulham are fully capable of defending their home field against a hapless Chelsea squad, at least to the tune of a stalemate – quite possibly a scoreless one.

Nottingham Forest ML (+190) vs Brentford

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

Forest let us down a couple of weeks ago as they failed to win at home, but they didn’t lose, either. They drew with a Burnley team that has strangely had their number this season, as they’ve drawn in the league and lost to the Clarets in the Carabao Cup second round.

Nevertheless, Forest are off to a solid start in the second year of their top-flight return, as they’re sitting in 12th place with a resume highlighted by a road win at Chelsea and close losses to both Manchester clubs and Arsenal.

That Carabao Cup loss, of course, means that Forest were idle in midweek, while opponents Brentford were knocked out of the competition by Arsenal on Wednesday.

Thomas Frank’s squad has struggled to start the year, with three draws and just one win before sliding to a two-match losing streak that includes a concerning home defeat to Everton. This one’s no lock, but at +190 odds, it’s incredible value on a club trending in the right direction at a home field that has often been a massive advantage.

Premier League Matchweek 7 Parlay

EPL Matchweek 7 Parlay (+198)

  • Man City Moneyline (-290) at Wolves
  • Arsenal Moneyline (-195) at Bournemouth
  • West Ham Moneyline (-215) vs Sheffield United

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

This week, we will build our parlay around a couple of significant favorites on the road, taking advantage of the depressed odds because of the other side’s home-field advantage.

Arsenal will be highly motivated to get their title chase back on track after a tough draw in the North London derby. While they have midweek fixtures on either side of this one, it could have been worse, with those two matches being against Brentford and Lens, who are currently in the relegation zone in Ligue 1.

Going up against a Bournemouth side sitting barely above relegation themselves, Mikel Arteta’s squad should have no trouble securing all three points.

Manchester City requires no introduction, as they have beaten everyone and won everything over the past year or so.

Erling Haaland has continued his terminator-like tendencies, and Julián Álvarez has emerged as a major playmaker in Kevin De Bruyne’s absence. Even with midweek fixtures before and after the weekend, City’s squad depth should allow them to dispatch a relegation-threatened Wolves side with ease, even on the road.

As for Wolves, they allowed three goals to newly-promoted Championship side Ipswich Town on Tuesday in the Carabao Cup, so that’s a great snapshot of the current state of their back line.

Finally, we come to West Ham, who have the privilege of playing at home against a Sheffield United side coming off of a shellacking of historic proportions, as they lost 8-0 to Newcastle on Sunday.

West Ham have been in good form after a fluky opening-day draw to Bournemouth. They’ve beaten Chelsea and Brighton in the league while losing only to City and Liverpool and even earning a victory in the Europa League.

This is not an elite West Ham squad, but they’re firmly in the league’s top half, and they should be absolutely fine at home against a team of Sheffield United’s caliber.

Author

William Schwartz

As a former athlete and lifetime fan, sports have always been a huge part of my life. I've written about them for almost as long as I've been watching and playing them, from a blog I wrote with a friend in middle school, to journalism classes at the University of Michigan, to today. I hope to bring you entertaining coverage, strong analysis, and profitable betting picks on any and all sports, whether it's MLB baseball, college football, European soccer, or anything in between.

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