Two Premier League matchweeks down, 36 to go in the 2023-24 EPL campaign.
Arsenal, Manchester City, and Brighton & Hove Albion have set the early pace, with all three picking up six points from their first two matches. A further four teams - Brentford, Liverpool, Tottenham and West Ham - have yet to drop all three points.
That brings up to the third matchweek of the season, which begins on Friday with Chelsea facing Luton Town. Elsewhere, Arsenal welcomes Fulham, Manchester City travels to Sheffield United, and Newcastle hosts Liverpool in the marquee fixture of the weekend.
How should soccer bettors approach the weekend? Let’s dive into my trio of selections for the weekend.
Nick Hennion’s 2023-24 EPL Betting Record: 4-3-1 (+2.2 units)
Premier League Matchweek 3 Predictions
Premier League Odds used below are current as of Wednesday, Aug. 23, at 11 a.m. ET, at the specified sportsbook.
Newcastle United vs Liverpool Best Bet
Newcastle United Moneyline (+115)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Manager Jürgen Klopp’s side earned six points against the Magpies, including a 2-0 win at St. James Park. Although that match saw Newcastle play down a man for all but 25 minutes, the damage was done before that moment.
Yet, Newcastle won the expected goals battle down a man. Manager Eddie Howe’s side produced 2.04 expected goals for the entire fixture, while Liverpool generated 1.87, 48 percent of which came before Newcastle’s red.
Further, Newcastle has established themselves as a top-tier home side. Last season, they posted a +1.46 xGDiff per 90 minutes at St. James’ Park. Liverpool, meanwhile, finished the season with only a +0.07 xGDiff per 90 minutes away from home.
Given Liverpool emerged from a win that saw half of their expected goal total against Bournemouth come from a penalty and subsequent rebound, this feels like a prime position to fade the visitors.
Take Newcastle at +100 or better in our EPL pick of the day.
Burnley vs Aston Villa Best Bet
Burnley Goal Line +0.5 (-132)
BetRivers Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Aston Villa thrashed Everton 4-0 on Sunday to erase their memory of a 5-1 beatdown from Newcastle.
But, this rates an excellent sell-high spot on manager Unai Emery’s side, especially when you factor in the rest edge.
Burnley didn’t play a Matchweek 2 fixture due to Luton’s incomplete stadium, giving Vincent Kompany an extra week to prepare. Villa, meanwhile, played on Sunday AND has to contend with a Wednesday Europa Conference League qualification match.
Even if you set that rest advantage aside, this remains a Villa side overrated away from home. Last season, they claimed all three points in only six road fixtures. Additionally, Villa recorded a -0.42 road xGDiff per 90 away from home.
Even though we all expect Burnley to drop off from their +1.10 xGDiff per 90 minutes from last season’s Championship-winning season, a result feels doable here.
Back the hosts to secure points at -140 or better.
Arsenal vs Fulham Best Bet
Same-Game Parlay: Arsenal ML & Both Teams to Score - “No” (+102)
BetRivers Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
How Fulham scores in this match is entirely beyond me.
Aleksandar Mitrovic is officially off to Saudi Arabia, leaving Marco Silva’s attack in complete tatters. At Everton in Matchweek 1, Fulham created a mere 0.13 expected goals before Mitrovic entered as a sub on 58 minutes.
Plus, in last season’s Premier League campaign, Fulham saw only one player create more than 0.3 expected goals per 90 minutes. That, of course, was Mitrovic.
Arsenal’s defensive form appears to be back. After allowing Nottingham Forest to win the expected goals battle in their opening match, they limited Crystal Palace to only 0.33 expected goals when playing at equal strength.
Assuming Arsenal can get on the scoresheet in this match, they should cruise to victory. Take this same-game parlay at -120 or better.
Premier League Matchweek 3 Parlay (+940)
- Brighton & Hove Albion Moneyline (-195) vs West Ham
- Wolverhampton Wanderers Moneyline (+230) vs Everton
- Newcastle United Moneyline (+115) vs Liverpool
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.25 Units
I will double down on my love for Newcastle as the first leg of this three-legged parlay. Aside from the above analysis, Liverpool finished as an inferior side at Chelsea on Matchday 1 and must take on a better home side.
From there, we’ll use Wolves, who enter a road fixture against Everton, a major positive regression side. Through two matches - at Manchester United versus Brighton - they own a -4 expected goal differential compared to a -0.1 xGDiff.
Personally, I believe Everton is only favored because they’re at home. For that reason, Wolves are worth a shot at +220, especially given Everton has posted a worse expected goal differential against easier competition.
Finally, we’ll sell West Ham off their home win against Chelsea in their visit to Brighton. Last season, the Seagulls bossed manager David Moyes’ side, winning both matches, and the combined non-penalty expected goals battle 3.82 to 1.22, per fotmob.com.
Premier League Matchweek 3 Odds
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