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Premier League Best Bets Matchweek 12

Last Updated: Nov 8, 2023

Whether it was Luton drawing Liverpool, Nottingham topping Villa, or Chelsea thrashing Spurs, chances are you were surprised by at least a couple of Premier League results from matchweek 11.

This week, there will be the potential for chaos again as many of the league’s top teams head on the road for exciting fixtures, but they’ll all want to maintain the status quo with a big win heading into an international break. With plenty of action ahead, let’s go through some picks for matchweek 12, including a parlay of some home favorites.

William Schwartz’s 2023-24 EPL Betting Record: 12-16-0 (-0.88 units)

Premier League Matchweek 12 Predictions

Premier League odds used below are current as of Tuesday, Nov. 7, at 9 a.m. ET, at the specified sportsbook.

Tottenham ML (+115) at Wolves

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

After losing to an increasingly competent Chelsea in the Mauricio Pochettino derby, we finally have a real opportunity to buy low on Tottenham.

This is a great team, but it’s hard to get good value on a team that hasn’t lost a match, so the defeat to Chelsea gives us the best chance we’ve had yet to back Spurs. Yes, they’re going on the road, but it’s to face 14th-place Wolves, who have allowed 19 goals in 11 league games thus far.

It’s also worth noting that Tottenham’s loss to Chelsea wasn’t without controversy.

When Cristian Romero was sent off in the 33rd minute, Spurs led 1-0 courtesy of a deflected Dejan Kulusevski goal, and by the time Tottenham was dealt a rare second red card to Iyenoma Udogie, the score was still just 1-1 after Chelsea scored the penalty associated with Romero’s foul.

Nicolas Jackson ripped off his entire late hat trick against a nine-man side. While the Blues were deserving winners, it’s worth noting that in a complete game of 11 vs. 11, Spurs probably remain unbeaten, and even with just the single red card, there’s a solid chance they hang on for at least the draw. Back Spurs in our EPL pick of the day.

Newcastle ML (-150) at Bournemouth

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

Yes, this is a bit of a buy high, which we like to avoid, but the value here is impossible to ignore.

Borussia Dortmund seems to have Newcastle’s number in UCL. Still, they’re surging in England with big wins over Arsenal and Manchester United and that dominant European performance against PSG. The win over Arsenal was very encouraging, as Anthony Gordon tucked away the only significant chance of the game, and the Magpies limited Arsenal to just one shot on target and 0.57 xG.

They’re going up against a genuinely dreadful Bournemouth side, who are making a solid case that amongst a really weak bottom of the table, they should be one of the three sides to go down. Yes, the Cherries have mostly lost to top sides of late, but they haven’t picked up a point against a major club since a mid-September draw with a spiraling Chelsea.

Their lone league win thus far came against fellow cellar dwellers Burnley, and that Chelsea match was their most recent non-loss until that contest. After showing life early in this season, Bournemouth have fallen flat, especially against top competition, and Newcastle should have no issue cruising through this one.

Manchester City ML (-135) at Chelsea

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

After a thumping 6-1 win over Bournemouth on the heels of a 3-0 derby win at Manchester United, City are officially rolling.

On the other side of the pitch, this is an excellent sell-high opportunity on Chelsea, who do seem to be turning a corner but are not quite as good as the 4-1 result against Tottenham might indicate, due in part to the controversies outlined in the Spurs section of this piece. The emergence of Nicolas Jackson is encouraging for the Blues, but against the fearsome City back line, which has allowed a league-low eight goals thus far, he will have a tougher outing than usual.

Part of the reason the early odds are even as short as they are might be an Erling Haaland injury situation; not only is he up and running in the Champions League, but even if he’s unavailable or not at his best, City will have no issue scoring.

Julián Álvarez has emerged as one of the World’s best-attacking players as City have made it a priority to field him alongside Haaland, and newcomer Jérémy Doku has been phenomenal of late. It’s fitting that amongst a week of madness in matchweek 11, the perpetual greatness of City still shone through; this week, they’ll be the standard once more and dispatch Chelsea with ease.

Premier League Matchweek 12 Parlay

EPL Matchweek 12 Parlay (+217)

  • Liverpool ML (-260) vs Brentford
  • Aston Villa ML (-175) vs Fulham
  • Brighton ML (-425) vs Sheffield United
  • Arsenal ML (-550) vs Burnley

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

We’ll stretch this week’s parlay out to four legs to grab some excellent +217 value while still playing it safe in a way by only betting on home sides.

This is precisely the right moment to bet on Liverpool, who are coming off of a shocking and very unlucky draw at Luton. They will come out on fire at Anfield as they often do after a road letdown. They managed to create and miss six big chances in the draw, a performance they’re unlikely to repeat against a Brentford side whose good form has them overpriced here.

As for Villa, we’re also buying low after a shocking home loss to Nottingham Forest, in which they owned 74% of possession and won both the xG and chance creation battles. They’ll be hosting 15th-place Fulham, who haven’t won in the Prem since an October 7th victory over Sheffield.

Speaking of the Blades, they’ll be visiting a Brighton squad who are being doubted amidst a bit of a slump after a hot start to the year. Draws with Everton and Fulham aren’t great results, but this is a great bounce-back spot for the Seagulls.

Lastly, Arsenal’s heavily-juiced moneyline at home against second-to-last Burnley gives this parlay just a bit more value, as we’re grabbing buy-low value on the Gunners after a loss to Newcastle.

Author

William Schwartz

As a former athlete and lifetime fan, sports have always been a huge part of my life. I've written about them for almost as long as I've been watching and playing them, from a blog I wrote with a friend in middle school, to journalism classes at the University of Michigan, to today. I hope to bring you entertaining coverage, strong analysis, and profitable betting picks on any and all sports, whether it's MLB baseball, college football, European soccer, or anything in between.

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