Matchweek nine brought us a flurry of action after the international break, and after European competition resumes this week as well, club football will officially be back in full swing.
Plenty of exciting fixtures are coming up in England’s Premier League, so let’s get right in there and make some picks for matchweek ten, including a parlay of some of our favorite near-locks.
William Schwartz’s 2023-24 EPL Betting Record: 11-9-0 (+5.32 units)
Premier League Matchweek 10 Predictions
Premier League odds used below are current as of Tuesday, Oct. 25, at 9 a.m. ET, at the specified sportsbook.
Tottenham ML (-125) at Crystal Palace
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
It’s hard to know how long it’ll last when it comes to this club, but Tottenham Hotspur have been in absolutely fantastic form to start the year.
Since shaking the rust off with an opening day draw at Brentford, Ange Postecoglu has gotten off to a historic start for a first-time Prem manager, winning seven of the ensuing eight games. Even the lone draw was an impressive result in and of itself, a 2-2 draw at Arsenal in the North London Derby.
Spurs are sitting at the top of the table and, other than opening day, have comfortably taken care of inferior competition; in fact, their last two matches were clean-sheet wins over Luton and Fulham.
Palace aren’t necessarily having a bad season. They’re right in the middle of the table as they were last year, and truth be told most years. They haven’t been on the right or wrong end of too many shockers; they’re losing to the good teams, such as Arsenal, Newcastle, and Aston Villa, and beating the bad ones, like Sheffield United and Wolves.
The Manchester United upset stands as a lone highlight, but this is far from a top-four quality United side. Roy Hodgson’s bunch have defended pretty well but just haven’t found the goals; they won’t be able to keep up with Son Heung-min and the high-powered Spurs attack and will drop all three points in our EPL pick of the day.
Tie or Burnley Win (-145) at Bournemouth
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We ran this same wager for Wolves against Bournemouth last week, and it worked like a charm as the visiting squad won 2-1. This week, we’re taking more of a risk and investing in Burnley, a side that has accomplished almost nothing this season.
Vincent Kompany hasn’t yet found managerial success that comes close to what he achieved as a player in the Premier League, but the stars are aligning for at least one point in this matchup.
For one, the two matches in which the Clarets have picked up points, a win and a draw, were both away from their home of Turf Moor, so we know they can play on the road at least and at home. The other key aspect is that when they have picked up points, it’s been against fellow bottom-table sides; they drew with two-win Nottingham Forest and beat promotion side Luton Town, who will all but surely go back down.
Bournemouth surely fits the bill, as the Cherries are one of two teams who have yet to win a game this season- even Burnley and Luton have left that club by now. They’ve drawn three times, including one on a wacky opening day against West Ham, but have lost outright in each of their last four matches.
Once you’ve lost 3-0 to Everton of all sides, you’ve hit rock bottom, so we’re going to invest in Burnley to do enough to secure the draw. We get some good value as we’re betting on the road side, but with this Bournemouth squad, it should hardly matter.
Newcastle ML (-135) at Wolves
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Simply put, we are going to sell high on Wolves. Let’s give all of the credit in the World to Gary O’Neil and his squad for fighting up to the middle of the table after a tough start, featuring a feisty attack including Hwang Hee-Chan and his five league goals and Pedro Neto with six assists, thus far.
The upset win over Manchester City gave this team some life, and they have since grabbed a nice draw with Villa and that win over Bournemouth, but we have to give the nod to Newcastle here; other than that anomaly of a match against City, they’ve struggled with top–tier competition such as Liverpool, Brighton, and even Manchester United.
We’re also buying relatively low on Newcastle, who have shaken off a tough start to the season. They won on opening day but then dropped the next three matches- meetings with Manchester City, Liverpool, and Brighton, two of which were on the road.
That’s a brutal run of fixtures, and while at least one point would have been nice, let’s not fault Newcastle for playing competitive matches against tough opposition.
Since the loss to Brighton, the Magpies have won four of five Prem matches, including an 8-0 thumping of Sheffield. They’ve also done well in their European return, including a massive 4-1 win over PSG, and while they do have UCL football this week, they should be fine for the weekend as it’s a home match, so they don’t have to travel to the continent.
Premier League Matchweek 10 Parlay
EPL Matchweek 10 Parlay (+218)
- Brighton ML (-195) vs. Fulham
- Liverpool ML (-350) vs. Nottingham Forest
- Aston Villa ML (-245) @ Luton Town
- West Ham or Tie (-330) vs. Everton
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Today, we will boost our value by going to four legs on our Premier League parlay. We’re picking on some of the best teams in the league, as all of these are comfortably top-half sides, and they’re also all playing at home against bottom-half competition.
Brighton currently sit in seventh place with the league’s third-highest scoring attack, averaging nearly 2.5 goals per game, and they’re hosting a Fulham team who have beaten only Everton, Sheffield, and Luton thus far, the latter of which were both at home.
Liverpool look back in form after a derby win over Everton. They’re just a match off the top of the table, own a better goal differential than Arsenal, and have scored more than Manchester City, with Mo Salah in great form adapting to a new playmaking role.
Forest got off to a pretty good start this season but have drawn four of their last five matches, including matches against Luton and Burnley, with the fifth match being a loss to none other than Man City.
Fifth-place Villa will be hosting Luton Town, one of the most-maligned teams of the season, although they only sit in 17th, with a goal differential to match. Nonetheless, Unai Emery’s men are in phenomenal form. They own the league’s second-most potent attack, led by the efforts of Ollie Watkins, who owns five goals and five assists in league play.
They’ve won four of their last five matches in the league, with the other being a draw at Wolves, but the wins have included some resounding efforts such as 4-1 over West Ham and 6-1 over Brighton. They’re a perfect 4-0-0 at home compared to 2-1-2 away from Villa Park, so this is an ideal spot to invest in them.
Finally, we have West Ham facing Everton, who have climbed a bit in the league table to 16th but are still one of the league’s very worst sides- this is the team that lost to Luton, after all.
This is an excellent buy-low spot on the Hammers, who were recently wrecked by Villa and drew against Newcastle, but they’ve only lost to City in their home matches. This double chance should be reasonably safe against an Everton side that has won just four points in four road matches, a win over Brentford, and a draw with Sheffield.
West Ham, who are perfect so far in the Europa League, are far clear of either of those sides and should coast through this one.
