It’s official: The 2023-24 English Premier League season has arrived.
On Matchday 1, soccer bettors have a full 10-match slate from which to choose. Headlining the schedule is Chelsea vs Liverpool at Stamford Bridge on Sunday. Elsewhere, Manchester City travels to Burnley on Friday, and Arsenal hosts Nottingham Forest.
But which matches and markets offer bettors the best value? Let’s dive into my three best bets for Premier League Matchday 1.
Nick Hennion’s 2023-24 EPL Betting Record: 0-0-0 (+0 units)
Premier League Matchweek 1 Predictions
Premier League Odds used below are current as of Tuesday, Aug. 8, at 9 a.m. ET, at the specified sportsbook.
Check out the latest soccer futures with our odds comparison tool.
Arsenal vs Nottingham Forest Best Bet
Arsenal -2 (-105)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Although you’re buying high off Arsenal’s midweek Community Shield win against Manchester City, laying it with the Gunners makes too much sense.
Last season, manager Mikel Arteta’s side posted a +1.24 expected goal differential per 90 minutes at the Emirates Stadium. The season prior, that figure rested at +1.03 xGDiff per 90 minutes.
However, shrink the sample to 10 home matches against bottom-half xGDiff sides, and the results improve. Across that sample, Arsenal posted a +1.56 xGDiff per 90 minutes and did no worse than a push in seven of those 10.
Add in Forest posted a -0.93 xGDiff per 90 minutes away from home last season, and we’re prepared to make this our EPL pick of the day.
Brentford vs Tottenham Hotspur Best Bet
Brentford: Draw No Bet (+100)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Brentford won’t have talisman Ivan Toney available, but they’re still a solid underdog bet at home.
Across the last two seasons, the Bees have posted a +0.42 xGDiff per 90 minutes at the Brentford Community Stadium. Conversely, Spurs have earned all three points in only 39.4% of their last 38 road contests.
Plus, in the most recent meeting between these clubs — a match at Tottenham where Brentford didn’t have Toney — they won 3-1 and matched Spurs 2-2 on big scoring chances, per fotmob.com.
Consider the change of venue and the relative instability at Spurs, and we’ll back Brentford to do no worse than a point.
Sheffield United vs Crystal Palace Best Bet
Sheffield United: Draw No Bet (+115)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
To the untrained eye, this is such a trap line. Surely Crystal Palace, a team that played in the Premier League last season, can go on the road and defeat Sheffield United, a squad from the Championship, right?
Wrong.
Palace posted a -0.31 xGDiff per 90 minutes last year in the top flight. The season prior, it was -0.29, per fbref.com.
As for the Blades, they performed relatively well against poor opposition in their last EPL campaign. Against the 10-worst road sides by xGDiff, they posted a -0.2 xGDiff per 90 minutes.
For those reasons, I believe these sides are closer than the odds suggest. Back the hosts at (+100) or better.
Premier League Matchweek 1 Parlay
- Arsenal Moneyline (-450) vs Nottingham Forest
- Brighton & Hove Albion Moneyline (-320) vs Luton Town
- Manchester United Moneyline (-290) vs Wolves
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 Units
We’ll double down on our Arsenal love by including them as the first leg of our moneyline parlay.
From there, we’ll add two presumed top-half teams against two presumed bottom-half sides. Last year, Manchester United won both matches against Wolves by a 5.2-1.0 xG margin.
Lastly, I don’t trust newly-promoted Luton to defeat Brighton, who won all three home matches against eventually relegated sides last season.
